[responsivevoice_button voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”Stuck in traffic? Boss looking over your shoulder? Just lazy and don’t want to read?
Click here to LISTEN!”]
For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Monday, June 10th
Each week I kickoff the DFS MLB week with great optimism, hope and confidence. Last week that hope was kicked in the balls over and over until we got to the full Friday slate where we finally landed a positive evening thanks in large part to the Ronald Acuna/Freddie Freeman connection.
Still, not the huge night that I was honestly expecting but beggars cannot be choosers. I noticed talking to some of our chat room folks though that we’ve still been struggling to start the month of June. I’ve spent most of the weekend thinking of why this might be and what I personally can do or say to help us all out.
The one thing that keeps popping into my mind is that night after night in our DFS MLB Chat Room, I notice a lot of great conversations and unique perspectives. I love this. It fires me up seeing you guys helping each other, discussing ideas, etc. But I think there might be a small issue in this dynamic. In my opinion, there are a lot of GPP/tournament conversations going on. Not just in our chat but literally everywhere in DFS these days. All you see on Twitter are either GPP screenshots, qualifier hits or near misses. This is fueling a lot of us to keep pumping money into these kinds of contests which we all know deep in our souls is a -EV venture.
While I have no problem with this type of play, it is my job as the cash game guy to remind you that you simply aren’t going to get better odds of winning than in single entry 50/50 contests with over 100 entrants. If you want to chase the dream, do it. But put your best GPP lineup in to these contests too and help fund your habit. Live the dream, play to max your winnings and all of that but please remember to use good bankroll management strategy in order to stop from busting out during losing streaks.
Tonight, we have a nice nine game slate with enough intrigue to fund a full 15 gamer. We have the Chris Sale decision as really the only elite level pitcher on the board tonight though there are other studs based on the surface stats at least. Fortunately, as I write this there are “officially” three starting pitchers labeled as “undecided” but you know that I got the goods on each situation for you already.
Then there is Coors Field. The Rockies are back and home and two of the most overrated pitchers in baseball in Yu Darvish and German Marquez are set to battle. Do we dare try and take the discounted arms? Do we fully stack against these two, knowing ownership might be lower? That is a viable question here on Monday night.
There are a few obvious plays here tonight but before we lock in anybody we have to make sure that we are doing our part and building the right kind of lineups in the right types of contests using a proper amount of bankroll. Because if those three boxes aren’t checked by the time you are reading this, you have already lost.
Let’s get to today’s DFS MLB Cash Game Breakdown!
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
New York Mets at New York Yankees –Its crazy humid and quite rainy all day in New York. The Bronx has a 75% chance of rain pretty much all throughout this game with some clearing late. The Yankees have been VERY willing to cancel games upon any weather issues lately and it would not be hard to reschedule against their in-town rival Mets.
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox –The rain that is leaving NYC is coming into Boston late. As of now the game should be good to go at start but depending how the winds blow, there could be significant rain moving in later in the night.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves –Just some light rain around SunTrust tonight but shouldn’t be a big problem.
- BOS -250
- TB -225
- NYY -185
- LAD -170
- ATL -150
Highest Run Expectancy
- COL 5.80
- NYY 5.69
- ATL 5.42
- TB 5.26
- BOS 5.21
Lowest Run Expectancy
- TEX 2.79
- OAK 3.24
- LAA 4.01
- MIA 4.04
- NYM 4.31
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Max Scherzer||- - -||179.10||2.46||0.247||2.97||3.24||2.90||33.50||18.20||48.30||64.10%||43.50%||34.10||15.90%||50.30%||5.20||68.50%||33.70%||84.30||17.00%||48.40%||34.50%||1.15||46.70%||94.50||8.20|
1) Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox ($11,800/$10,900) –Clearly the best pitcher on the board today in terms of raw total points. Sale’s overall season numbers are not quite at the level we would normally expect but he’s been sensational lately. Over his last seven starts, against some of the best offenses in MLB including Houston, Colorado and the Yankees, he is averaging a whopping 53.1 FD points per game. He has 78 strikeouts over those games which is an average of 11.1. Over his career against these Rangers bats, Sale has surrendered just a .176 BA, .237 wOBA and owns a 32.3% strikeout rate.
2) Charlie Morton, RHP, Rays ($10,500/$9900) –Significant price decrease for one of the hottest pitchers in MLB over the past month. Morton has produced three consecutive quality starts in which he’s racked up 55, 43 & 55 FD points against the Tigers, Twins and Indians. There’s really no shortcomings in Morton’s game. He has a terrific strikeout rate of 30.4% (2nd highest on the slate), groundball rate of 51.7% (2nd best on the slate), a 34.8% O-swing% (4th best on the slate) and just 0.48 HR/9 (best on the slate) this season. The A’s are always a dangerous team to use a pitcher against but do own a 25.4% strikeout rate over the last week, high for them. Oakland is also throwing minor league punching bag Tanner Anderson against Tampa Bay tonight which gives Morton a huge advantage to grab a win as well.
3) Masahiro Tanaka, RHP, Yankees ($8900/$7900) – If you thought that I wasn’t going to drop stats on you about how Tanaka pitches in the first game after the birth of a child, as he is today, you don’t know me very well. Those numbers are 0-1, 3.18 ERA, 5.2 IP, 4 K’s, 2 ER, 1 BB. Alright, Tanaka and his Wife Mai have had just one previous child and she was born in February of 2016 so there wasn’t much to go on. But Tanaka will have an extra day of rest going into tonight’s start against cross town rival Mets. Tanaka has pitched well in these rivalry games though 1-2, he owns a 3.08 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 24 K’s in 26.1 innings. In fact this year’s Mets own just a .225 BA with a .241 wOBA and 30.9% strikeout rate against them. There isn’t much sexiness about Tanaka today, or ever really but the price is certainly right against a below average opponent that he has had success against.
4) Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins ($7000/$6900) – Every night presents a new set of opportunities and a new set of obstacles. Writing the name Sandy Alcantara in this breakdown was not easy but hear me out. Alcantara has been throwing the ball a lot better lately so I took a deep dive into why. While there is about 0.8 MPH uptick in his four seam fastball velocity there isn’t anything that just jumps out to me. But digging into his last four starts we see a couple trends that we can use. Over his last four starts, Alcantara is averaging 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K’s and 36 FD points per game. At this price tag that would be an amazing return. What I like about what him is that in each of these starts he is altering his pitch mix toward the weakness of the opponent. Against the Mets he threw 56% sinkers, against the Nats he threw 30% sliders (it didn’t work out well), against the Giants he went 47% fourseam fastballs then last time out he went back to the slider 30% of the time. Of course, all of this wouldn’t mean squat if there wasn’t an advantage which of course by now you should realize…I do. The Cardinals own the worst BA at .184, worst wOBA at .225 and worst K% at 32.% over the last week. Furthermore, St Louis is fourth worst in MLB against changeups and own the worst ISO against the pitch at .107. Alcantara’s changeup is actually quite underutilized. It features the sixth most velocity, 31stbest horizontal movement, 24thbest overall movement (H+V) and generates 52% swings with a 57% groundball rate. The Cardinals struggles along with Alcantara’s changeup and willingness to use it has me pretty confident that he can keep us in play while our bats win it for us.
5) Jerad Eickhoff, RHP, Phillies ($7400/$7100) – This play is all about taking advantage of a struggling opponent. The Diamondbacks are starting to crash back down to earth after a real great start to 2019. Arizona is hitting just .204 (3rd worst), with a .267 wOBA (3rd worst) over their last seven games. They are also much worse against RHP than LHP this season where they own just an 87 wRC+ (21st) against righties.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 44.5% above average in runs scored, 26.7% above average in HR’s, 22.8% above average in 2B, 210.8% above average in 3B.
2) SunTrust Park –12.1% above average in runs, 25.6% above average in HR’s, 23.6% above average in 2B.
3) Angel Stadium –11.7% above average in runs, 31.1% above average in HR’s, 11.4% above average in 2B.
4) Guaranteed Rate Field –11.7% above average in runs, 33.1% above average in HR’s.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Tanner Anderson, A’s (AAA Numbers) – .293 BAA, 5.97 xFIP, 1.68 WHIP, 25.9% HR/FB%, 2.30 HR/9, 7.3% swinging strike rate.
2) Dylan Covey, Whitesox – . 244 BAA, 5.84 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 36.7% FB%, 13.6% HR/FB%, 1.45 HR/9, 6.2 swinging strike rate. Just stack against Odrisamer Despaigne instead.
3) Anibal Sanchez, Nationals – .238 BAA, 4.90 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 41.6% FB%, 1.17 HR/9.
4) Jason Vargas, Mets – 5.00 xFIP, 38.3% FB%, 7.4% swinging strike rate, 40.1% hard contact rate.
5) Michael Wacha, Cardinals – .281 BAA, 5.07 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, 24.0% HR/FB%, 2.16 HR/9, 41.9% hard contact rate.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Alex Avila, Sandy Leon
1B – Jose Abreu, Matt Adams
2B – Brock Holt, Brian Dozier, Daniel Descalso
3B – Nolan Arenado, Colin Moran, Gio Urshela
SS – Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Adeiny Hechavarria, Nick Ahmed, Dansby Swanson
OF – Leury Garcia, Aaron Hicks, Carlos Gomez, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Delino DeShields, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Gary Sanchez, Yankees
- Willson Contreras, Cubs
- JT Realmuto, Phillies
- Mike Zunino, Rays
- Brian McCann, Braves
Paying up behind the plate once again the way to go tonight. All three of the top end catchers are in terrific spots here tonight with Sanchez having an amazing matchup against Jason Vargas. The entire Rays lineup is in play tonight against Tanner Anderson so don’t forget about Zunino if you are paying down.
- Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
- Freddie Freeman, Braves
- Jose Abreu, White Sox
- Ji-Man Choi, Rays
- Rhys Hoskins, Phillies
Rizzo is an extremely good low-ball hitter and that is all that Marquez does is pound the lower portion of the zone with fastballs. Outside of extreme wind blowing out of Wrigley in July/August or against the Pirates bullpen at PNC Park, this is the best spot for Rizzo that there is in all of baseball. Only Rizzo’s amazing matchup can keep Freeman from the top spot at 1B tonight but he is a real great option again especially with Musgrove’s slider movement cruising right into his wheelhouse. Ji-Man is actually smashing lately to the tune of .538/.600/.769 over his last five games.
- Brian Dozier, Nationals
- Brandon Lowe, Rays
- Cesar Hernandez, Phillies
- Adam Frazier, Pirates
Not only is Dozier the hottest hitting 2B in the league hitting .417/.500/1.083 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 5 runs and a .619 wOBA but he’s also in a terrific matchup. Dozier has destroyed the White Sox over his career. Dozier has his 22 career HR’s against White Sox pitching, most of any opponent. Lowe is an obvious play tonight and will be quite highly owned across the board.
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies
- Kris Bryant, Cubs
- Yoan Moncada, White Sox
- Colin Moran, Pirates
Hard to deny both of the third basemen in Coors Field tonight. Arenado gets a slight edge over Bryant because of his ability to turn around Darvish’s high slider. Moncada is a solid mid-tier option and is hitting .294/.368/.706 over his last five games. Moncada has struck out more than I would like recently but his power/speed combo against Anibal Sanchez is perfect for our cash game needs. Moran changed his swing to improve loft and has both missed a lot more pitches than he usually does and has hit 3 HR’s with a .625 ISO over his last five games.
- Javier Baez, Cubs
- Trea Turner, Nationals
- Corey Seager, Dodgers
- Jean Segura, Phillies
Both David Fletcher and Kevin Newman could have made the cut here as our value SS option but they were both far enough away from these four that I couldn’t justify the leap. Baez is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and goes to Coors Field which is just too perfect. Turner is starting to really breakout of his mediocre streak at the plate, owning a .359 wOBA with 4 RBI and 4 runs over his last five games.
- Mike Trout, Angels
- Michael Conforto, Mets
- Jay Bruce, Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber, Cubs
- Aaron Hicks, Yankees
- Juan Soto, Nationals
- Carlos Gonzalez, Cubs
- Starling Marte, Pirates
- Ronald Acuna, Braves
- Tommy Pham, Rays
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers
- Avisail Garcia, Rays
A lot of power in this pool here tonight. Trout is as hot as it gets with 3 HR and a .528 wOBA over the last week. For comparison, Jay Bruce has 4 HR’s and a ridiculous .670 wOBA over his first six games with the Phillies. If you think that the Cubs took a flier on Carlos Gonzalez without planning on him crushing back at Coors Field just a week or two later you aren’t paying attention. We are going to need another value bat or two to open up here tonight because most of our outfielders are costly.