Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in tonight’s MLB Cash Games!
For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 11am ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
Wednesday, April 10th
Avoided the disaster that was Jacob deGrom last night, hit on yet another minimally priced pitcher in Mike Minor, yet still went down to the wire in cash games. Basically, you had to have some sort of Oakland A’s exposure last night to survive and thanks to Ted Schuster, we had a Chad Pinder/Khris Davis mini-stack which was barely enough to keep the winning streak alive.
For those of you scoring at home, out of the 13 cash game slates we have broken down for you here, we have cashed in 11. I’m not telling you this to piss you off, I am informing you as a way to motivate you and to show how on point these breakdowns have been. It will absolutely never continue at this pace, it’s impossible, but I sure am enjoying the ride so far.
The formula has been simple. Pay down at pitcher. Pay as far down as you can get until you have a solid strikeout arm (23%+, 8.0 K/9+) for 8200 or less on FD and 8000 or less on DK. Build around that arm, use the extra money to grab the best bats possible with a heavy focus on the longball and on players who can fill up the scoresheet. It’s OK to punt one lineup spot but do so with a middle of the lineup bat that has some power or extreme speed on a team that is in a positive run scoring environment.
Tonight, I want to use Noah Syndergaard. Like….I REALLY want to use Syndergaard because there is just no way the Twins get to deGrom last night and Thor tonight. But it’s against our strategy, which creates some turmoil in my brain. I’m going to stick to the model though because it is foolish to stray from what has worked so well.
Also, have some good news for those of you wanting more early slate coverage: We have added Scott Bondar’s “Early Bird” article to the mix several times per week, with Scottie focusing on the early slates on any given day. The Early Bird debuts today!
That allows me to focus on what I do best, which is the main slate games this evening. I am officiating a wedding this weekend so I’ll be leaving you in the very capable hands of Ted Schuster and Kenneth Le while I ruin some lives…lol. I’ll be back on Monday with a full cash game breakdown and likely many stories of me playing God and making a bride cry.
Here is the DFS MLB Cash Game Breakdown for Wednesday April 10th!
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs –It’s going to be ridiculously cold in Chicago and will rain all day long. This game has a real good chance at being postponed so I wouldn’t count on any Cubs or Pirates today.
1) New York Mets: -195
2) Chicago Cubs: -165
3) Philadelphia Phillies: -160
4) Oakland A’s: -140
5) Seattle Mariners: -140
Highest Run Expectancy
1) Philadelphia Phillies: 4.97
2) Oakland A’s: 4.92
3) New York Mets: 4.72
4) Baltimore Orioles: 4.58
5) Seattle Mariners: 4.56
Lowest Run Expectancy
1) Minnesota Twins: 2.78
2) Kansas City Royals: 3.75
3) New York Yankees: 3.88
4) Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.94
5) Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.95
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Lance McCullers Jr.||HOU||91.20||3.04||0.267||3.34||3.77|
1) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets ($10,100/$10,400) – Make no mistake, just like Jacob deGrom yesterday, Syndergaard is obviously the best play on the board tonight but that doesn’t mean we are necessarily going to plug him in. The Twins came into yesterday’s game with the third fewest home runs and eighth fewest runs scored of any team in MLB. Syndergaard has the best pitch in the game with his mid-90’s slider that generates an amazing 16.7% swinging strikes over the last three years. Thor doesn’t give up many fly balls or hard contact and is getting 55.2% ground balls so far this year. His /166 xwOBA and .118 xBA are the best on the slate by a wide margin.
2) Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers ($7300/$8300) – Ahhh yeah!! This is why they pay me the big bucks, folks. So, hear me out. Woodruff is actually a pretty good pitcher. He got beat up last time out against the Cubs but he profiles really well here. Woodruff has four pitches, a 95 MPH fastball that is pretty straight and a two-seam fastball with downward bite that generates both whiffs and ground balls. But the two premium pitches here are his slider and changeup, both of which have generated a high amount of swings and misses. His slider hits 90 MPH and is the eighth highest velocity slider in the entire league. His changeup sits at about 85 MPH and has a lot of arm side horizontal movement. He throws the four-seamer and slider the most which just so happen to be a mix the Angels struggle at greatly. The Angles are fourth worst against four seamers, third worst against 95 MPH+ four-seamers and also fourth worst against sliders in all of MLB. All of this is plenty of reason to have Woodruff on your minds tonight. Then factor in the likelihood that Mike Trout will be out of the lineup after leaving last night’s game with a groin injury. When you take Trout out of this Angels lineup, we are talking about easy street with very low XBH threat and much higher expected K%. Woodruff is in such a good spot that I really don’t want his name to get out to the general DFS population today. I want these other chumps to find him themselves so keep it discreet.
3) Collin McHugh, RHP, Astros ($8800/$8800) – It’s not an ideal matchup but McHugh has been very effective in his first two starts of the season after being a dominant force in the Astros bullpen for the past two seasons. Astros pitchers have struck out Yankees hitter 17 times in 18 innings in this series while McHugh has 13 K’s in 11 innings this season. He’s given up just three earned runs in those starts to the Rays and A’s so the competition has been stiff. I think that he will be a bit contrarian so if Woodruff winds up as chalk, we may consider a slightly more risky McHugh at a slightly more expensive price.
4) Robbie Ray, LHP, Diamondbacks ($8100/$9400) – Personally, I don’t think that I can play Ray in cash until he gets a couple of starts where he can repeat his delivery and not walk five batters. The strikeouts are going to be here tonight against the Rangers especially because of the strong LH presence Texas has in there. The matchup makes him a lot safer than usual and we all understand that Ray has the stuff to light up the scoreboard. Thus, we are talking much better GPP play here in this spot even though he does grade out slightly above my marker for cash game use here tonight.
5) Lance Lynn, RHP, Rangers ($6800/$7000) – Insane, right? The Rangers bullpen blew it last night but Mike Minor still dominated this limp Diamondbacks lineup for most of the night. What makes Lynn intriguing in this spot is the matchup but also a couple of trends he’s displaying including a pretty strong gain in velocity. He’s usually be a 92-92 MPH guy but has regularly hit 95 here in 2019. He’s also using his changeup more to lefties in place of his cutter that the Twins forced him into a year ago. Lynn has always been strong against RHH but lefties have notoriously killed him. But increased velocity and the use of a change are definitive signs of a potential improvement. He’s give up 10 hits including 4 XBH to lefties this year though but what I like is the 7 strikeouts and just 30.0% hard contact against them. The Diamondbacks have only David Peralta to worry about from the left side too which makes Lynn even safer here on Wednesday night.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Citizen’s Bank Ballpark –19.0% above average in total HR’s, 28.9% above average in HR’s to RHH.
2) Angel Stadium – 17.6% above average for HRs to LHH, 8.7% above average for runs scored to LHH.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Dan Straily – 1.47 HR/9, 42.4% FB%, 13.5% HR/FB%, 46.9% hard contact rate against in 2018. Also has a .395 xwOBA, .305 xBA and a .387 wOBA & .294 BA Vs this Oakland lineup.
2) Felix Pena – 2.16 HR/9, 16.7% HR/FB%, 45.5% hard contact rate this year. 1.17 HR/9, 13.3% HR/FB%, 40.1% hard contact rate in 2018.
3) Jorge Lopez – 1.64 HR/9, 45.7% FB%, 12.5% HR/FB%, 45.7% hard contact rate this year. .270 BAA, 3.69 BB/9, 43.4% hard contact rate against in 2018.
4) Frankie Montas – 1.64 HR/9, 33.3% HR/FB%, 46.7% hard contact rate this year. .285 BAA, 46.1% hard contact rate against in 2018.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|8||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||95||407||32||77||79||2||14.0||17.40||0.337||0.329||0.326||0.425||0.663||0.452||190|
|13||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||84||353||30||77||67||23||12.2||28.30||0.353||0.322||0.288||0.371||0.641||0.416||165|
|17||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.414||159|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – JT Realmuto, Yadier Molina, Francisco Cervelli
1B – Ryan Zimmerman
2B – Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve, Logan Forsythe
3B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Carlos Correa
OF – Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Taylor, George Springer, Jake Marisnick, David Peralta, Hunter Pence
Overall Hitter Rankings
1) Yasmani Grandal, Brewers
2) Yadier Molina, Cardinals
3) JT Realmuto, Phillies
4) Wilson Ramos, Mets
5) Wilson Contreras, Cubs – Game not likely to play but if so, he grades out highly
Yasmani Grandal homered yesterday and is in another great spot in a friendly LH hitting park against a flyball pitcher in Felix Pena. Molina actually grades out the best on DK where his price is incredibly low. When you get a chance to get a middle of the order bat at catcher for a minimal price, that is ideal. Ramos sat out last night for the Mets but should be back in there at home against Jake Odorizzi who Ramos caught back with the 2017 Rays.
1) Pete Alonso, Mets
2) Dan Vogelbach, Mariners
3) Rhys Hoskins, Phillies
4) Justin Bour, Angels
5) Chris Davis, Orioles
Unfortunately, the prices of both Alonso and Vogelbach keep going up because these are two of the hottest hitters in baseball. The Mets have the third highest expected run total tonight and Alonso hits higher in the order which gives him the edge. Nobody is using Rhys Hoskins in DFS lately which is a huge mistake. Hoskins has had runners on base for 24 of his 39 plate appearances so far this season. My mouth is watering just typing that because no matter what you project for Hoskins this year, if he’s going to be up with runners on 62% of the time, his numbers are going to be insane. I was not into the idea of Chris Davis yesterday despite being just $500 on FD mostly cause he wasn’t in the lineup. He will be in tonight’s lineup against a flyball righty so its much more interesting. What’s more is that DK finally lowered his price all of the way down to $2K as well. The plot thickens.
1) Jurickson Profar, A’s
2) Jose Altuve, Astros
3) Mike Moustakas, Brewers
4) Tommy La Stella, Angels
5) Whit Merrifield, Royals
Coming off of a four hit day and still near minimum price, this is a good time to start riding Profar for a bit. We don’t want to chase the 40+ performance but at this price a hit and a run will pay us handsomely. Altuve is locked in right now and facing a lefty at home which usually is an auto lock button cash game play. Both 2B in the late game are in play as both Moustakas and La Stella are red hot and smashing homers all over Angels Stadium this week. Whit Merrifield has a 30-game hit streak and has scored a run in every game this season/. But he’s pretty darn expensive and not really elevating much considering how many hits he already has this season.
1) Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
2) Anthony Rendon, Nationals
3) JD Davis, Mets
4) Chad Pinder (2B/OF on DK)
One of my favorite pastimes is jumping on great players when their price goes down. This is what is happening with Matt Carpenter who is easily a $4K+ player every night of the week but is just $3600 on FD tonight. Rendon is the hottest hitting 3B on the slate and also is 6-12 with 3 HR career versus Nick Pivetta. JD Davis is cheap, hitting up in the order and has some nice pop in his bat. Pinder is 3B on FD which is odd because he’s played just one game there all year.
1) Carlos Correa, Astros
2) Jean Segura, Phillies
3) Paul DeJong, Cardinals
4) Corey Seager, Dodgers
SS is a frustrating position tonight and could be the key to overall success. While Correa, Segura and DeJong are strong players, nobody grades out above the normal cash line for me tonight. DeJong could be the guy to use as he’s making a ton of hard contact and has hit in 10 straight games. If you can find a punt option that is in a good spot once lineups come out, I can endorse punting and using this salary for another more secure position.
1) Juan Soto, Nationals
2) Christian Yelich, Brewers
3) Michael Conforto, Mets
4) Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals
5) Bryce Harper, Phillies
6) Trey Mancini, Orioles
7) Victor Robles, Nationals
8) Andrew McCutchen, Phillies
9) Hunter Pence, Rangers
10) Jay Bruce, Mariners
Soto is surprising me with his start to the 2019 season. He is legitimately an on base machine who is still hitting home runs. His teammate Victor Robles had a game saving HR yesterday and seems to be helping the team in many different ways which is exactly the type of player we like to build around in cash games. Be sure to verify that Pence is in the lineup before you plug him in as he has some serious BvP against Robbie Ray and a good history against LHP in general.