Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in tonight’s MLB Cash Games!
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All-in Matt Boyd while Trevor Richards gets a bump with the best pitching umpire behind the plate
The Yankees are stupid for sitting Sanchez and Torres which puts Bundy as a viable option if you want too.
Baltimore is a very sneaky GPP play
Favorite Stacks – Pirates, Red Sox and Orioles.
For the time being, we will post our DFS MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. We will update it with links to each piece when it is LIVE so check back throughout the day:
- Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Full breakdown of everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive about the top hitters & fades for today’s MLB slate.
- Pitching Coach – In-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
- GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
- MLB Now Livestream – Daily video show breaking down the players, matchups & slate.
- MLB Summary – A quick summary of the articles, shows & coaching sessions from today.
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/Draftcheat/Sedler)
- DFS MLB Chat Room
- DFS MLB Ownership Projections
- Daily MLB Projections & Optimizer
- MLB Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
THURSDAY, MAY 23rd
We have a 5-game slate on Fanduel and a 6-game slate on Draftkings. The Phillies at Cubs game is the additional game on Draftkings. The night slate only has two games so it is a perfect night to spend a little time away with the family or just take a break. This is a tough slate to pay down on pitching but the good news is that day slate usually brings plenty of value options with guys getting spot starts. There are some weather situations to keep an eye on but the game times for Thursday might actually work out great. All the games should be able to get in.
There is one game where I do have concerns about how heavy a team is favored. Tanaka has a history of struggles in Baltimore so we can find some value in the Orioles bats. I am also going to be posting regular betting plays over at the betting site so give it a try.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets should be good to play, but there is a chance for morning rain and late afternoon storms. The window should be enough to get the game played.
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates should start off dry but storms could move in to shorten the game.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles are looking at a similar set-up as the Nats and Mets game. We need to track it, but things should work out.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs will have strong winds blowing from LF to RF. It will knockdown flyballs to LF.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
(No Odds on CHC/PHI & BOS/TOR)
- New York Yankees -210
- Detroit Tigers -170
- Washington Nationals -155
- Pittsburgh Pirates -140
Highest Run Expectancy
- New York Yankees 5.22
- Detroit Tigers 4.83
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.54
- Washington Nationals 4.02
Lowest Run Expectancy
- New York Yankees 3.48
- Miami Dolphins 3.67
- Baltimore Orioles 3.78
- Colorado Rockies 3.96
Today's Pitchers Grid
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals ($11,100 DK & $11,00) FD) – With some of the lineups the Mets have been throwing out there, Strasburg could be hard to fade even at this price tag. The Mets are 26th in wOBA over the last week and if they are missing guys like McNeil and Conforto then this will continue. Strasburg has pitched at least 6 innings and with 7+ K’s in 9 of his 10 starts.
2) Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers ($10,300 DK & $9,500 FD) – The Marlins is last in wOBA and last in ISO vs. LHP in the month of May which continues a trend we saw in April. Boyd has at least 18.1 DK points and 31 FD points in all but 1 start this season. The slider has been a difference maker for Boyd.
3) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Pirates ($8,500 DK & $9,000 FD) – For as good as Lyles has been, I prefer the price on Draftkings. He has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of his 8 starts this season. One of those two other starts, he allowed just 2 runs. The Rockies are 25th in wOBA vs. RHH on the road this season and most of their hitters have significant career drop-offs in numbers when on the road.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Camden Yards – 24.9% above average in runs scored, 48.1% above average in HR’s, 81.8% above average in 3B.
2) Comerica Park – 21.3% above average in runs scored, 18.0% above average in HR’s, 315.0% above average in 3B.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Trevor Richards, RHP, Marlins – 5.56 xFIP, .344 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles – 4.93 xFIP, .385 wOBA vs. RHH
3) Antonio Senzatela, RHP, Rockies – 4.53 xFIP, .371 wOBA vs. LHH
4) Clayton Richards, LHP, Blue Jays – .384 wOBA away from Petco last year
5) Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies – .430 wOBA vs. LHH
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|9||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||150||650||46||119||105||4||12.6||16.00||0.294||0.324||0.321||0.411||0.615||0.428||172|
|10||Frank Schwindel||- - -||53||209||14||34||40||1||6.7||16.70||0.297||0.356||0.338||0.383||0.636||0.425||167|
|14||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|15||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||119||503||39||95||93||25||11.5||27.00||0.330||0.321||0.285||0.368||0.615||0.406||159|
Batter v Pitcher
1B – Kendry Morales – Yankees, Trey Mancini – Orioles
OF – Bryce Harper – Nationals
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Christian Vazquez – Red Sox
- Victor Caratini – Cubs
- Francisco Cervelli – Pirates
Bundy is extremely HR prone and he has 9 HRs in 10 games vs. the Orioles. Vazquez has hit LHP well and this season along with making strong strides at the plate. Caratini is one of the better hitting backup catchers in the league. Cervelli is a punt option.
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Josh Bell – Pirates
- Kendry Morales – Yankees
- Justin Smoak – Blue Jays
- Steven Pearce – Red Sox
I have never ranked a catcher as the #1 option at 1B for FanDuel but did so because Sanchez is the best option. Bell will go low owned despite his great numbers this season. Morales has BvP and cheap price. Smoak and even Tellez are solid plays. Pearce gives you a punt option.
- Adam Frazier – Pirates
- Brian Dozier – Nationals
- DJ Lemahieu – Yankees
- Jonathan Villar – Orioles
- Starlin Castro – Marlins
Frazier has incredible DAY/NIGHT splits in his career. Dozier has picked things up as of late. Lemahieu is in a good spot but not as cheap as I would like for a guy who doesn’t have much power. Tanaka has struggled to pitch in Camden Yards which puts Villar in play. Castro is just a cheap punt option.
- Anthony Rendon – Nationals
- Vladimir Guerrero – Blue Jays
- Gio Urshela – Yankees
- Renato Nunez – Orioles
- Brian Anderson – Marlins
Rendon is expensive but crushes LHP. Guerrero has 5 HRs in his last 8 games. Urshela has quietly been a good hitter for the Yankees. Nunez is a value on FD while Anderson is cheap on both sites but not in an ideal match-up.
- Gleyber Torres – Yankees
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
- Trea Turner – Nationals
- Kevin Newman – Pirates
- Sean Rodriguez – Phillies
Torres has 10 HRs in 11 games vs. the Orioles this season so the only reason to fade him is because of ownership in GPPs. Bogaerts and Turner make solid GPP options. Newman is cheap on FD if he makes the lineup and Rodriguez is OF/SS eligible on DK.
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- J.D. Martinez – Red Sox
- Gregory Polanco – Pirates
- Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
- Trey Mancini – Orioles
- Brett Gardner – Yankees
- Nick Castellanos – Tigers
- Bryce Harper – Nationals
- Stevie Wilkerson – Orioles
- Brian Anderson – Marlins (DK)
- Steve Pearce – Red Sox (DK)
- Austin Dean – Marlins (FD)
Betts should be able to take advantage of this Blue Jays pitching staff. J.D. is likely to sit but will be all-in if he plays. The Pirate should get after Senzatela. Schwarber is cheap on both sites if leading off again. Mancini is Baltimore’s best hitter and Gardner appeared locked in last night. There are some decent punt options at the bottom of rankings if you need them.
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