We will post our DFS MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. We will update it with links to each piece when it is LIVE so check back throughout the day:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
Bullpen Coach – Full breakdown of everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
Hitting Coach – A deep dive about the top hitters & fades for today’s MLB slate.
Pitching Coach – In-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers
DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
MLB Now Livestream – Daily video show breaking down the players, matchups & slate.
MLB Summary – A quick summary of the articles, shows & coaching sessions from today.
Also Be Sure To Bookmark:
We have a special Labor Day slate. This breakdown will cover the 8 afternoon games that are on the main slate. It is important to note as we have gotten into September baseball that means rosters have expanded. Teams that are battling for a playoff spot tend to be far more aggressive with their bench. Starters will be yanked early if they don’t have it with more bullpen arms available. The same goes for hitters that struggle vs. either a left-handed or right-handed pitcher. This slate has plenty of bad pitching to go around so we have plenty to target. We don’t have to pay up for expensive pitching which is always helpful. The one good thing about all the call-ups is that we usually find some decent punt play as lineups come out.
UPDATED Mr. Wendle leading off for the Rays is a decent option.
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees: Will have a 40% chance of storms. There are delay possibilities but have to imagine the Yankees don’t want to play anymore doubleheaders at this point in the season.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals: Have some evening storms possible but shouldn’t be an issue for the afternoon game.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
1. Tampa Bay Rays -300
2. Chicago Cubs -280
3. Atlanta Braves -247
4. Minnesota Twins -210
5. New York Yankees -200
Highest Run Expectancy
1. Atlanta Braves 5.94
2. Cincinnati Reds 5.59
3. New York Yankees 5.59
4. Minnesota Twins 5.54
5. Tampa Bay Rays 5.52
Lowest Run Expectancy
1. Baltimore Orioles 2.98
2. Seattle Marines 3.35
3. Toronto Blue Jays 3.56
4. San Francisco Giants 3.81
5. Texas Rangers 3.91
Today's Pitchers Grid
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs ($8,900 DK & $8,100 FD) – The Mariners will be without the DH for an already weak lineup. The Mariners have 3rd highest K% rate and 4th lowest wOBA vs. RHP over the last month. Hendricks has been a far different pitcher at home in his career and in particular this season. He has a 1.79 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .188 BAA against at Wrigley. The strikeouts are higher, the home runs allowed are cut in half and the control is better. Hendricks is averaging almost 7 innings per start.
2) Ryan Yarbough, LHP, Rays ($9,400 DK & $7,600 FD) – It is close between Yarbough and Hendricks. He has walked more than 1 guy just one guy in a start since June 2nd. The issue from Yarbough is that his pitch count is almost always held below 90 pitches. He has the 2nd best xFIP on the slate for the season and the best xFIP, swinging strike rate & K% rate of any pitcher on the slate over the last 30 days.
3) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Twins ($10,500 DK & $9,700 FD) – The Tigers have the 7th lowest wOBA, 5th lowest ISO and highest K% rate over the last month vs. RHP. Odorizzi has the 2nd best swinging strike rate and 2nd highest K% rate on the slate. The price isn’t cheap but he has allowed just 1 run in 13 innings this season vs. the Tigers with 13 K’s. The one negative for Odorizzi is that he rarely goes beyond 6 innings in most of his starts since he racks up his pitch count quickly.
4) Masahiro Tanaka, RHP, Yankees ($8,100 DK & $8,000 FD) – He does his best work this season with additional rest like he will have today. Tanaka has also been at his best with Austin Romine behind the plate so keep an eye on that. The Rangers have the 7th highest K% rate, 2nd lowest ISO, lowest wOBA over the last month vs. RHP. Tanaka is another pitcher who has been much better at home than on the road this season.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1 Nationals Park – 32.9% HR’s above average, 17.0% 2B’s above average, 13.9% 3B’s above average
2) Great American Ballpark – 10.3% HR’s above average
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Drew Smyly, LHP, Phillies – 5.56 xFIP, 2.82 HR/9, .484 wOBA vs. LHH, .372 wOBA vs. RHP, 5.13 xFIP in the last 30 days
2) Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, Orioles – 5.73 xFIP, 2.33 HR/9, .383 wOBA vs. LHH, 7.36 xFIP in the last 30 days
3) Joe Ross, RHP, Nationals – 5.36 xFIP, .379 wOBA vs. LHH, .349 wOBA vs. RHH, .528 xFIP in the last 30 days
4) Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners – 5.07 xFIP, 2.38 HR/9, .446 xOBA vs. LHH, .381 wOBA vs. RHH
5) Jacob Waguespack, RHP, Blue Jays – 5.01 xFIP, .366 wOBA vs. RHH, 4.85 xFIP in the last 30 days
6) Jordan Zimmerman, RHP, Tigers – 4.86 xFIP, .384 wOBA vs. LHH, .996 OPS allowed in his career to current Twins hitters.
7) Tyler Beede, RHP, Giants – 4.84 xFIP, 1.95 HR/9, .368 wOBA vs. LHH
(click on link above)
We have a stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
HOT STREAKS (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
BATTER VS. PITCHER
2B – Asdrúbal Cabrera – Nationals
OF – Victor Robles – Nationals, Michael Conforto -Mets, Eddie Rosario – Twins, Juan Soto – Nationals, Shin-Soo Choo – Rangers
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Gary Sanchez – Yankees
2) Mitch Garver – Twins
3) Victor Caratini – Reds
4) Kyle Farmer – Reds
Sanchez has a .383 wOBA at home and Garver like many Twins has a better wOBA on the road at .415. Farmer has a .368 wOBA vs. LHP and faces the HR prone Smyly. Caratini has a .402 wOBA vs. LHP. There is no real good cheap options since you are truly punting the position if you go cheap.
1) Freddie Freeman – Braves
2) Nate Lowe – Rays
3) Ji-Man Choi – Rays
4) CJ Cron – Twins
5) Anthony Rizzo – Cubs
Freeman has a .421 wOBA vs. RHP and clearly the top option if price doesn’t matter. Lowe is a great punt option on FD. Choi has multi-hit games in 4 of his last 7 games. Cron has a .371 wOBA on the road. Rizzo has a .441 wOBA over his last 22 games even if L on L is not ideal.
1) Jeff McNeil – Mets
2) Kolten Wong – Cardinals
3) Ozzie Albies – Braves
4) Hanser Alberto – Orioles
McNeil has a .371 wOBA vs. RHP and the price is better on FD. Kolten Wong has a .421 wOBA over his last 24 games and is cheaper than McNeil on DK. Albies is a much better hitter at home with a .370 wOBA. Alberto has a .416 wOBA vs. LHP.
1) Kris Bryant – Cubs
2) Eugenio Suarez – Reds
3) Miguel Sano – Twins
4) Josh Donaldson – Braves
5) DJ LeMahieu – Yankees
6) Joey Wendle – Rays
Bryant has a .464 wOBA vs. LHP and Suarez has a .403 wOBA vs. LHP. Sano has a .402 wOBA on the road. Donaldson has .381 wOBA vs. RHP and a .437 wOBA at home. LeMahieu has a .476 wOBA vs. LHP. Joey Wendle is a punt option on FD. Bryant seems like a clear option at his price compared to the others on DK. Donaldson is a bit cheaper than the rest of the big names on FD.
1) Jorge Polanco – Twins
2) Javier Baez – Cubs
3) Jonathan Villar – Orioles
4) Willi Castro – Tigers
Polanco has a .385 wOBA vs. RHP and Baez has a .394 wOBA vs. LHP. Love the Baez price on DK but he is very questionable with a thumb injury. Villar has been great the two last months but not the easiest match-up. Castro is the best cheap option but doesn’t exactly excite me.
1) Nick Castellanos – Cubs
2) Aristides Aquino – Reds
3) Nelson Cruz – Twins
4) Phillip Ervin – Reds
5) Aaron Judge – Yankees
6) Max Kepler – Twins
7) Nick Senzel – Reds
8) Michael Conforto – Mets
9) Austin Meadows – Rays
10) Tommy Pham – Rays
11) Eddie Rosario – Twins
12) Alex Dickerson – Giants
13) Brandon Nimmo – Mets
14) Matt Joyce – Braves
15) Tyler O’Neill – Cardinals
Castellanos should be priced higher for how good he has been since joining the Cubs but lack of ownership on most slates has kept his price down. Aquino has a .577 wOBA vs. LHP and faces a pitcher who is a lock to give up at least 1 HR. Cruz has a .410 wOBA vs. RHP and Ervin has a .487 wOBA vs. LHP along with being a value on both sites. Judge has a .479 wOBA vs. LHP. The last 3 guys are value options.