We will post our DFS MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. We will update it with links to each piece when it is LIVE so check back throughout the day:
ADDED : Dylan Bundy on DK
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
Bullpen Coach – Full breakdown of everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
Hitting Coach – A deep dive about the top hitters & fades for today’s MLB slate.
Pitching Coach – In-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers
DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
MLB Now Livestream – Daily video show breaking down the players, matchups & slate.
MLB Summary – A quick summary of the articles, shows & coaching sessions from today.
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB Chat Room
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 11am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
Also Be Sure To Bookmark:
This breakdown will cover the 7 games on the evening slate. We will have an Early Bird article by Scott Bondar if you are interested in the afternoon slate. The evening slate will be tricky with Justin Verlander the best pitcher by far on the slate but he is expensive. The rest of the pitchers either have tough matchups or have way too many warts. The issue is finding the right value to go with Verlander if you go that route.
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies have a 40% chance of storms that we need to watch.
Washington Nationals @ Minnesota Twins are expecting rain most of the day. This an interleague game so they will try their best to get his game played but it doesn’t look promising.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
(No Odds on CIN/SEA)
1. Houston Astros -260
2. Los Angeles Dodgers -220
3. Tampa Bay Rays -150
4. Boston Red Sox -135
5. Atlanta Braves -126
Highest Run Expectancy
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 5.86
2. Houston Astros 5.67
3. Boston Red Sox 5.57
4. Tampa Bay Rays 5.38
5. Atlanta Braves 5.19
Lowest Run Expectancy
1. Oakland A’s 3.33
2. Baltimore Orioles 4.15
3. Texas Rangers 4.62
4. Minnesota Twins 4.69
5. Philadelphia Phillies 4.81
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Max Scherzer||- - -||179.10||2.46||0.247||2.97||3.24||2.90||33.50||18.20||48.30||64.10%||43.50%||34.10||15.90%||50.30%||5.20||68.50%||33.70%||84.30||17.00%||48.40%||34.50%||1.15||46.70%||94.50||8.20|
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros ($12,600 DK & $12,000 FD) – The clear number #1 if price is not factor. The issue is that there isn’t a lot of good value on the slate and he does face a team that has been hitting as of late. Verlander has dominated the A’s with 30K’s in 21 innings allowing just 3 runs in 3 starts. He will give up a random HR but is almost a lack of 2 runs or less each time out.
2) Kolby Allard, LHP, Rangers ($7,200 DK & $8,000 FD) – The Rays have the 3rd lowest wOBA and 4th lowest ISO vs. LHP over the last 30 days. The K% rate is not ideal but with the lack of options and Tampa’s issues vs. LHP, he is a decent option. This would be a Draftkings specific play. Allard has allowed just 3 runs in his last 3 starts.
3) Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds ($6,200 DK & $6,600 FD) – A pitcher who is not ideal but finds himself in a decent match-up. Mahle struggles vs. LHH so he must navigate players like Kyle Seager and Daniel Vogelbach. The Mariners have the 7th lowest wOBA and 4th highest K% rate vs. RHP. Mahle has done a good job getting ahead of hitters with a 72.1% first pitch strike rate over the last month which usually helps most pitchers.
4) Drew Smyly, LHP, Phillies ($6,500 DK & $7,000 FD) – This is another wildcard on the slate. Smyly can be hit or miss as he gives up plenty of homeruns. The last 2 starts, he has allowed just 1 run over 12 1/3 innings with 14 K’s. This is difficult match-up but if he can limit those HR’s, he can rack up enough strikeouts to get by. The Braves are bottom 10 in K% and bottom 10 in wOBA vs. LHP over the last month.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Rogers Centre – 36.4% HR’s above average
2) Camden Yards – 32.0% HR’s above average, 11.7% 2B’s above average
3) Minute Maid Park – 16.4% HR’s above average
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Drew Smyly, LHP, Phillies – 5.36 xFIP, .462 wOBA vs. LHH, .358 wOBA vs. RHH, 2.57 HR/9
2) Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Red Sox – 5.12 xFIP, .356 wOBA vs. LHH, 1.87 HR/9
3) Tommy Milone, LHP, Mariners – 2.12 HR/9
4) Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves – 5.12 xFIP, .277/.362/.544 vs. the Phillies
5) Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds – .368 wOBA vs. LHH, 1.59 HR/9
6) Clay Buchholz, RHP, Blue Jays – 5.21 xFIP
7) Brendan McKay, LHP, Rays – .364 wOBA vs. RHH, 1.83 HR/9
(click on link above)
We have a stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
HOT STREAKS (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
BATTER VS. PITCHER
C – Yan Gomes – Nationals
1B – Logan Morrison – Phillies
3B – Josh Donaldson – Braves
OF – Bryce Harper – Phillies, Khris Davis – A’s, Mark Canha – A’s
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Robinson Chirinos – Astros
2) JT Realmuto – Phillies
3) Will Smith – Dodgers
4) Omar Narvaez – Mariners
5) Yan Gomes – Nationals
Chirinos has the most power upside at the position at under 4k on DK. Realmuto has a .433 wOBA over his last 24 games. Smith has .439 wOBA vs. RHP. Narvaez faces a pitcher who struggles vs. LHH. Gomes has BvP and a value option.
1) Mitch Moreland – Red Sox
2) Daniel Vogelbach – Mariners
3) David Freese – Dodgers
4) Justin Smoak – Blue Jays
5) Rowdy Tellez – Blue Jays
This isn’t a great position on the slate as it is more about picking on bad pitchers unless you want to use guys who are multi-position on DK like Bellinger and Joc. Moreland and Vogelbach both face guys who struggle vs. LHH. Freese has been remarkably good vs. RHP at a .490 wOBA. The Blue Jays are affordable vs. Chacin.
1) Ozzie Albies – Braves
2) Dee Gordon – Mariners
3) Nick Solek – Rangers
4) Brian Dozier – Nationals
5) Cavan Biggio – Blue Jays
Albies has a .442 wOBA vs. LHP and Gordon is a lead-off value option. Solek has a .438 wOBA vs. LHP and has been the best hitter for the Rangers. Dozier has a .402 wOBA over his last 17 games. Biggio gives you a player to pick on Chacin.
1) Rafael Devers – Red Sox
2) Josh Donaldson – Braves
3) Anthony Rendon – Nationals
4) Kyle Seager – Mariners
5) Daniel Robertson – Rays
Devers has 8 HR’s in 16 games vs. the Jays this season. Donaldson has been great in the 2nd half and has BvP. Rendon has a .476 wOBA over his last 26 games and Seager has a .443 wOBA over his last 26 games. Robertson is a value option.
1) Alex Bregman – Astros
2) Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
3) Trea Turner – Nationals
4) Corey Seager – Dodgers
5) Willy Adames – Rays
Bregman has .480 wOBA over his last 26 games and Bogaerts has a .407 wOBA over his last 23 games. Turner is the human pinball machine and Seager has 3 HR’s in his last 3 games. Adames is a value option with a .376 wOBA on the road.
1) Mookie Betts – Red Sox
2) JD Martinez – Red Sox
3) Yordan Alvarez – Astros
4) George Springer – Astros
5) Nelson Cruz – Twins
6) Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
7) Joc Pederson – Dodgers
8) Bryce Harper – Phillies
9) Tommy Pham – Rays
10) Juan Soto – Nationals
11) Adam Eaton – Nationals
12) Adam Duval – Braves
13) Austin Riley – Braves
14) Randal Grichuk – Blue Jays
15) Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays
The big names take center stage on this slate. They all find themselves in good spots with the Red Sox bats particularly cheap on DK. The Astros bats will look to tee off on Bailey. Cruz faces a LHP and we know how good he can be vs. them. The Dodgers will look to take advantage of the Orioles staff. Harper has been very good over the last month and has BvP. You can find value with the Braves and the Blue Jays OF.