[responsivevoice_button voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”Stuck in traffic? Boss looking over your shoulder? Just lazy and don’t want to read? Click here to LISTEN!”]
For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Tuesday, July 16th
There are 15 games on this Tuesday slate with plenty of weather issues to watch out for. It does not appear any of the games will get rained out but there are some delay possibilities to watch out for.
This has to be the worst collection of starting pitchers to ever be on one slate. It is amazing the garbage that is getting called up to start these days. The lack of pitching in baseball is only leading to offenses continuing to dominate. With so many games on this slate, it makes for a great GPP day because of the low ownership you will get on teams in great matchups.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians will have a 30% to 40% chance of some storms. They shouldn’t cause a rainout but a delay is possible.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs has some storms possible but they appear to clear out for the game.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers have a 50% chance of storms most of the night. Delays have a good chance of happening but the storms usually fade away for games to get played.
New York Mets @ Minnesota Twins could have some pre-game storms that could cause a delayed start but the game should be played without issue when it passes.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals have a slight delay possible but should play without a problem.
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals are in the same situation as St. Louis.
No odds yet on TB/NYY, DET/CLE, CIN/CHC, or HOU/LAA.
- WAS -200
- BOS -190
- LAD -190
- OAK -170
- STL -170
Highest Run Expectancy
- COL 7.84
- SF 6.66
- BOS 6.53
- WAS 6.33
- TEX 5.68
Lowest Run Expectancy
- PIT 3.79
- MIA 3.85
- SEA 4.00
- PHI 4.03
- ATL 4.11
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Lance Lynn, RHP, Rangers ($11,200 DK & $9,800) – The Diamondbacks offense continues to slip as the season goes on. They have the 2nd lowest ISO and 8th lowest wOBA vs. RHP over the last 30 days. Lynn has thrown at least 7 innings in his last 5 starts and 14 straight starts of at least 6 innings. He also has a quality start in 11 of his last 12 starts. The price on FanDuel is more appealing than Draftkings.
2) Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers ($10,000 FD & $10,200) – Outside of a bump in the road at Coors, Buehler has been very good in his last 6 starts. In the 5 non-Coors starts, he has thrown at least 7 innings for a total of 38 innings with 51 K’s. Buehler has the 2nd best xFIP of regular starters on the slate with a 27.4% K rate.
3) Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals ($7,700 FD & $7,400 DK) – He has allowed just a .279 wOBA at home this season and is a nice mid-level price who has some strikeout upside with a 10.2 K/9 at home. The Pirates outside of Josh Bell don’t have a very threatening lineup despite recent production. Busch Stadium has been very pitcher friendly this season.
4) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Red Sox ($8,000 FD & $8,300 DK) – He has dominated the current Blue Jays in his career with a .170/.217/.293 triple slash line. Cashner is making his first start for the Red Sox coming off his trade and has 5 straight quality starts. In those starts, he has allowed just 5 total runs and has not walked more than 1 guy in any of those outings. Cashner could be higher on this list but I can’t ignore his inability to miss bats.
5) Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, Orioles ($5,900 FD & $5,300 DK) – In limited innings, Asher has 30.4% K rate and 14.6% swinging strike rate. There is no reason why they won’t let him have a longer leash if throwing well as he had 100+ pitches in his last 4 starts in the minors before his promotion. Not sure if the improvement he has shown this season lasts but it could be from an increase usage in his slider and cutter along with less usage of the changeup. He is the best cheap option on the slate.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 66.3% above average in runs scored, 34.9% above average in HR’s, 32.9% above average in 2B and 247.1% above average in 3B.
2) Camden Yards – 12.7% above average in runs scored, 36.5% above average on HR’s, 27.7% above average in 3B.
3) Fenway Park – 8.6% above average in runs scored, 38.9% above average in 2B
4) Angel Stadium – 19.8% above average in HR’s
Things To Target (Against)
1) Ryan Carpenter, LHP, Tigers – 5.82 xFIP, 2.63 HR/9, .437 wOBA vs. LHH, .397 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Glenn Sparkman, RHP, Royals – 5.59 xFIP, 1.96 HR/9, .381 wOBA vs. LHH, 6.16 xFIP in the last 30 days
3) Peter Lambert, RHP, Rockies – 4.83 xFIP, 2.73 HR/9, .445 wOBA vs. LHH, .360 wOBA vs. RHH, 5.43 xFIP in the last 30 days
4) Dario Agrazal, RHP, Pirates – 6.95 xFIP, 1.69 HR/9, .395 wOBA vs. RHH
5) Alec Mills, RHP, Cubs – .293 avg against, 1.48 WHIP, 1.71 HR/9 vs. RHH in the minors
6) Jacob Waguespack, RHP, Blue Jays – .300 avg against, 2.12 WHIP vs. LHH in the minors
7) Alex Young, LHP, Diamondbacks – 6.09 ERA, .292 avg against, 1.68 WHIP in the minors
8) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Giants – .412 wOBA vs. RHH, 2.27 HR/9
9) Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox – .291 avg against, 1.58 WHIP vs. RHH in the minors
10) Daniel Mengden, RHP, A’s – 5.32 xFIP, .399 wOBA vs. LHH
11) Steven Matz, LHP, Mets – .406 wOBA vs. LHH, 2.0 HR/9, 6.89 xFIP in the last 30 days
12) Zach Plesac, RHP, Indians – 5.28 xFIP, 1.80 HR/9, 6.41 xFIP in the last 30 days
13) Austin Voth, RHP, Nationals – .325 avg against & 1.70 WHIP vs. LHH
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C- Robinson Chirinos – Astros, Mike Zunino – Rays
2B- Robinson Cano – Mets, Jose Altuve – Astros
3B – Matt Chapman – A’s
OF – Mike Trout – Angels, Randal Grichuk – Blue Jays, Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Buster Posey – Giants
- Chance Sisco – Orioles
- Mitch Garver – Twins
- Travis D’arnaud – Rays
- Robinson Chirinos – Astros
Posey is a career .376 avg in Coors Field. Sisco has a .410 wOBA vs. RHP and Voth allowed a .325 batting avg. against LHH. Garver is expensive but has a .489 wOBA vs. LHP. D’arnaud will likely lead-off again after 3 HR’s last night. Chirinos is discounted and has a .372 wOBA vs. LHP.
- Joc Pederson – Dodgers
- Brandon Belt – Giants
- Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals
- Anthony Rizzo – Cubs
- Joey Votto – Reds
- Danny Santana – Rangers
Pederson is too cheap on FD and has a .375 wOBA vs. RHP. Belt is leading off in Coors against a terrible pitcher. The 2nd half surge appears to be happening for Goldschmidt. Rizzo is too cheap on DK. Votto faces an awful AAA pitcher. Santana is under 3k on FD and faces a pitcher who was also awful at AAA.
- Jose Altuve – Astros
- Max Muncy – Dodgers
- Derek Dietrich – Reds
- Robel Garcia – Cubs
- Mike Brosseau – Rays
Altuve has a .508 wOBA vs. LHP and is far too cheap on DK. Muncy has a .397 wOBA on the road plus faces a shaky bullpen. Dietrich is not a sure thing to be in the lineup but has a great match-up. Garcia has a .480 wOBA vs. RHP in limited AB’s and DeSclafani has struggled vs. LHH. Brosseau has hit LHP well in the majors and the minors this season. This is probably the position with the least amount of depth on this slate.
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies
- Pablo Sandoval – Giants
- Matt Chapman – A’s
- Justin Turner – Dodgers
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox
Arenado at home vs. LHP is tough to pass up. Sandoval is cheap on both sites for a middle of the order bat in Coors. Chapman has the BvP. Turner faces Velasquez who has actually struggled more vs. RHP. Devers has been the hottest 3rd over the last month.
- Trevor Story – Rockies
- Elvis Andrus – Rangers
- Corey Seager – Dodgers
- Alex Bregman – Astros
- Brandon Crawford – Giants
Story faces a pitcher who has allowed a .412 wOBA vs. RHH. Andrus faces a pitcher who had a 6.09 ERA at AAA so don’t be fooled by a couple of fluke outings. Seager comes in very affordable in the high-powered Dodgers offense. Bregman is too cheap on DK and Crawford loves hitting at Coors.
- Alex Dickerson – Giants
- Ian Desmond – Rockies
- Jordan Luplow – Indians
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- Joey Gallo – Rangers
- Tyler O’Neill – Cardinals
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
- Nelson Cruz – Twins
- Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
- Jesse Winker – Reds
- Khris Davis – A’s
- Aaron Judge – Yankees
- JD Martinez – Red Sox
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
- Juan Soto – Nationals
- George Springer – Astros
- Tommy Pham – Rays
- Christian Yelich – Brewers
- Yasiel Puig – Reds
- Mike Yastrzemski – Giants
I am the president of the Dickerson fan club. Desmond has a .417 wOBA vs. LHP and Luplow has a .450 wOBA vs. LHP. Betts has been on base 6 times in the last 2 games. Gallo has a .467 wOBA vs. LHP and a .452 wOBA at home. O’Neill has 3 HR’s in the last 3 games. Bellinger is going to win the NL MVP. Cruz vs. an LHP is always a solid play and Schwarber is too cheap on DK. Winker has a solid price on both sites but is questionable so make sure he is in the lineup. Davis is due to get going. There are a ton of ways to go on this slate in the OF.