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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Hitting Coach (Benny Ricciardi) – 11am ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Monday, July 15th
It appears someone needs to wake up the Draftkings algorithm because there are several players severely underpriced. There are far too many highly-productive guys who are affordable. Both sites also need to do something about the pricing for games in Coors Field where we are routinely seeing games with totals around 14. The bats are just too affordable for the massive offensive numbers we are seeing there this season.
We have 10 games on the slate for Monday, which includes the back half of a day/night doubleheader in Coors. Of course, the better pitchers are going in the day, so we can get some real trash at night. Both Coors teams should be very popular on this slate, and there should be plenty of runs scored, especially if the bullpens get much usage in the early games. We have just 1 weather spot to track.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals will have rain possibilities most of the day and into the evening. This will need to be monitored.
No line available on HOU/LAA or SF/COL Game 2
- BOS -190
- CLE -180
- LAD -170
- STL -146
- CHC -138
- NYY -138
Highest Run Expectancy
- COL 7.25 (g1)
- SF 6.75 (g1)
- BOS 6.23
- CLE 5.80
- LAD 5.27
Lowest Run Expectancy
- STL 3.81
- TB 3.91
- DET 4.20
- PHI 4.23
- TOR 4.27
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox ($9,100 FD & $11,200 DK) – He has dominated the Royals with a .138/.227/.272 triple slash line. The numbers over the last month have not been great overall but he still has a 16.3% swinging strike rate against some of the best hitting teams in the league. The price tag is really affordable on FanDuel and still usable with the cheap pitching options on Draftkings.
2) Joe Musgrove, RHP, Pirates ($8,300 FD & $5,800 DK) – The price on FanDuel is not of interest when you can get Giolito for $800 more but the price on Draftkings is too cheap. Musgrove has increased his velocity over his last few starts after a rough stretch. The Cardinals are last in ISO and wOBA vs. RHP since June 1st and last in wOBA and ISO at home in that time. We’ll need to watch the weather here as two starts ago Musgrove had his outing shortened by rain when he was throwing the ball really well.
3) Daniel Norris, LHP, Tigers ($6,000 FD & $4,200 DK) – He is far from a good starter but the price is right for a punt option with a Coors game on the slate. Norris is practically free on Draftkings. He gave up 6 runs in 7 innings with 8 K’s in his previous outing vs. the Indians, but that was after a rough 5-run 2nd inning. He’ll need to navigate the combo of Santana and Luplow, but the rest of the lineup has not hit LHP this season.
4) James Paxton, LHP, Rays ($9,000 FD & $9,300 DK) – He can run very hot at times and is coming off a 6-inning, 11-strikeout performance vs. this same Rays team. Paxton has allowed an OPS 152 less when Romine catches him vs. Sanchez so needless to say a better option if Romine is behind the plate. He also has just a .505 OPS against on the season with 6+ days of rest.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 65.0% above average in runs scored, 36.9% above average in HR’s, 32.7% above average in 2B and 240.5% above average in 3B.
2) Angel Stadium – 19.3% above average in HR’s
3) Progressive Field – 12.5% above average in HR’s
Things To Target (Against)
1) Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Rockies – 4.96 xFIP, .426 wOBA vs. LHH
2) Dereck Rodriquez, RHP, Giants – 5.32 xFIP, .349 wOBA vs. LHH, 1.60 HR/9, 5.01 xFIP in the last 30 days
3) Jakob Junis, RHP, Royals – 4.69 xFIP, .360 wOBA vs. LHH, 1.69 HR/9, 4.81 xFIP in the last 30 days
4) Adam Plutko, RHP, Indians – 5.08 xFIP, .369 wOBA vs. RHH, 2.48 HR/9
5) Rick Porcello, RHP, Red Sox – 5.20 xFIP, .353 wOBA vs. LHH, 5.32 xFIP in the last 30 days
6) Adrian Houser, RHP, Brewers – .404 wOBA vs. LHH
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Gary Sanchez – Yankees
1B – Joey Votto – Reds, Justin Smoak – Blue Jays
2B – Daniel Descalso – Cubs, Adam Frazier – Pirates
3B – Yoan Moncada – White Sox
OF – Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Buster Posey – Giants
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Manny Pina – Brewers
- Roberto Perez – Indians
- Tony Wolters – Rockies
Posey is a career .375 hitter in Coors. Sanchez has 4 HR’s in 22 PA’s vs. Snell. Pina has a .515 wOBA vs. LHP and is punt option. Perez has a .419 wOBA vs. LHP if he makes the lineup and Wolters is cheap Coors exposure.
- Daniel Murphy – Rockies
- Brandon Belt – Giants
- Freddie Freeman – Braves
- Justin Smoak – Blue Jays
- Jesus Aguilar – Brewers
Murphy is 8 for his last 12 with 2 HR’s. Belt is likely leading off in Coors. Freeman has a .410 wOBA vs. RHP and Houser has struggled vs. LHH. Smoak has great numbers vs. Porcello. Aguilar has a .501 wOBA over the last 22 games.
- Max Muncy – Dodgers
- Ryan McMahon – Rockies
- Joe Panik – Giants
- Cavan Biggio – Blue Jays
- Mike Brosseau – Rays
Muncy has a .402 wOBA on the road and 2 HR’s in 5 PA’s vs. Eflin. McMahon and Panik gives you cheaper exposure to Coors. Porcello has given up at least 5 ER’s in his last 3 starts and Biggio will likely be hitting clean-up again. Brosseau has been great vs. LHP in the majors and minors this season with 20 XBH’s in 101 AB’s.
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox
- Yoan Moncada – White Sox
- Evan Longoria – Giants
- Pablo Sandoval – Giants
Arenado has a .432 wOBA at home and Devers has a .503 wOBA in his last 92 PA’s. Moncada has a 1.085 OPS in 49 AB’s vs. the Royals this season and great BvP vs. Junis. Longoria and Sandoval face Chi-Chi who can’t miss bats which is a terrible thing in Coors.
- Trevor Story – Rockies
- Corey Seager – Dodgers
- Brandon Crawford – Giants
- Francisco Lindor – Indians
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
Story has a .414 wOBA at home, .423 wOBA over his last 11 games and .380 wOBA vs. RHP. Seager is affordable and has a .378 wOBA vs. RHP. Crawford heated up in Milwaukee and gets an even better hitting environment in Coors. Lindor and Bogaerts are solid plays but expensive.
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
- David Dahl – Rockies
- Alex Dickerson – Giants
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- Ian Desmond – Rockies
- Kevin Pillar – Giants
- Jordan Luplow – Indians
- Mike Yastrzemski – Giants
- Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
- Yordan Alvarez – Astros
- JD Martinez – Red Sox
- Ryan Braun – Brewers
- Justin Upton – Angels
- Nick Markakis – Braves
All of the Rockies and Giants OF will be in play. Dickerson is questionable with an ongoing back injury but he is the best SF OF option. Bellinger is more affordable on DK. Betts has been hitting better at home and vs. RHP. Luplow has crushed LHP and the price has dropped on FD to a good value. Schwarber is underpriced on DK and so is Upton.