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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- Going Deep – Breaking down what pitchers, hitters and ballparks to target and avoid when hunting for the long ball.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
SATURDAY, JULY 13th
OF Value Plays
- Tyler O’Neill
- Victor Reyes
We have 11 games on the main slate that will be covered in this breakdown. The early games will be covered in the Early Bird article.
This slate is loaded with big-name pitchers, but most don’t find themselves in good matchups. The issue with that as well is they are not coming at a discount so rather easy to fade in cash games. The cheaper options are a bit scary, which could make lineup building tricky.
We have another game in Coors, which has been loaded with offense over the last month with the exception of the last two games. The game for tonight in Colorado has opened up at an insane 14!!!
No issues with any game and the weather will be warm.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
No odds on SEA/LAA, ATL/SDP, TB/BAL
- Boston Red Sox: -170
- Cleveland Indians: -135
- Colorado Rockies: -125
- Houston Astros: -125
- Milwaukee Brewers: -120
- St. Louis Cardinals: -120
Highest Run Expectancy
- Colorado Rockies – 7.50
- Cincinnati Reds – 6.50
- Boston Red Sox – 5.22
- Houston Astros – 5.18
- Texas Rangers – 4.82
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 3.78
- Minnesota Twins – 3.91
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 3.99
- San Francisco Giants – 4.04
- Washington Nationals- 4.09
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Charlie Morton, RHP, Rays ($11,500 FD & $11,800 DK) – He has 2nd lowest xFIP, 3rd highest K% rate and 4th highest swinging strike rate on the slate. Morton has 22 Ks over the last two games with allowing three runs or less in 17 of his 19 games. In his previous start vs. the Orioles, he had 12 Ks over seven innings. The Orioles have the 8th lowest wOBA, 5th lowest ISO and 7th highest K% rate vs. RHP since June 1st.
2) Matt Boyd, LHP, Tigers ($10,100 FD & $11,100 DK) – The Royals have the 2nd lowest wOBA, 5th lowest ISO and 2nd lowest BB% rate vs. LHP since June 1st. Boyd has made some mistakes but has 24 Ks over his last 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts. He has 16 Ks in 11 innings vs. the Royals this season. Boyd is 2nd only to Sale in swinging strike rate and K% rate on this slate.
3) Dakota Hudson, RHP, Cardinals ($7,900 FD & $6,800 DK) – There are the obvious issues vs. LHH for Hudson, but he does have 14 straight starts with 3 ER or less. The season-high of 7 Ks is not great, but you are looking for that value option on DraftKings. The Diamondbacks are a team due for regression, and the ballpark usually helps the pitchers in St. Louis.
4) Wade Miley, LHP, Astros ($7,500 FD & $8,000 DK) – The Rangers have the 6th worst wOBA vs. LHP and the highest K% rate vs. LHP by a wide margin since June 1st. Miley has allowed 3 ERs or less in 16 of his 18 starts. It is not spectacular, but Miley has been a safe option this season. Miley had 7 Ks in six innings in his previous start vs. the Rangers.
5) Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies ($10,300 FD & $10,300 DK) – It appears Nola has figured out whatever caused his early-season struggles. He has allowed just 2 ERs total over his last four starts, going at least 6 2/3 inning in each of those starts. Nola has also been better at home this season and throughout his career.
6) Zach Davies, RHP, Brewers ($6,500 FD & $5,400 DK) – There is not much to say here. Davies is not very good, but we know the Giants suck. If you use him, he doesn’t have much blow-up risk and is dirt cheap on both sites.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 64.1% above average in runs, 34.5% above average in HRs, 33.6% above average in 2B, 214.0% above average in 3B.
2) Camden Yards – 12.6% above average in runs, 37.0% above average in HRs, 4.8% above average in 2B, 30.6% above average in 3B.
3) Angel Stadium – 4.3% above average in runs, 20.7% above average in HRs.
4) Globe Life Park – 3.2% above average in runs, 7.7% above average in HRs, 14.8% above average in 3B.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies – 5.36 xFIP, .395 wOBA vs. LHH, .362 wOBA vs. RHH, 2.43 HR/9
2) Matt Harvey, RHP, Angels – 5.24 xFIP, .393 wOBA vs. LHH, .341 wOBA vs. RHH, 2.06 HR/9
3) Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves – 5.23 xFIP, 6.28 xFIP in the last 30 days
4) Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Mariners – 5.18 xFIP, 1.86 HR/9
5) Brad Keller, RHP, Royals – 5.17 xFIP, 5.67 xFIP in the last 30 days
6) Dakota Hudson, RHP, Cardinals – .391 WOBA vs. LHH
7) Tanner Roark, RHP, Reds – .388 wOBA vs. LHH
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
1B – Yuli Gurriel – Astros
2B – Jason Kipnis – Indians, Dee Gordon – Mariners
SS – Francisco Lindor – Indians, Jean Segura – Phillies, Jorge Polanco – Twins, Andrelton Simmons – Angels
OF – Nelson Cruz – Twins, Yasiel Puig – Reds, George Springer – Astros, Whit Merrifield – Royals, Max Kepler – Twins
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Omar Narvaez – Mariners
- Kevan Smith – Angels
- Curt Casali – Reds
- Travis d’Arnaud – Rays
- Tony Wolters – Rockies
- Francisco Mejia – Padres
Notes: Narvaez has a .361 wOBA vs. RHP, and Harvey allows a .393 wOBA vs. LHH. Smith has a .428 wOBA vs. LHP, while Casali & Wolters give you cheap Coors exposure. d’Arnaud could be towards the top of the lineup. Mejia is the best punt option.
- Daniel Murphy – Rockies
- Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals
- Dan Vogelbach – Mariners
- Joey Votto – Reds
- Jesus Aguilar – Brewers
Notes: Roark has allowed a .388 wOBA vs. LHH. Goldschmidt is too cheap on both sites, and Kelly has struggled on the road. Vogelbach has a .418 wOBA vs. RHP. Votto is too cheap for Coors Field. Aguilar has a .503 wOBA over the last 30 days.
- Ozzie Albies – Braves
- Ryan McMahon – Rockies
- Jose Peraza – Reds
- Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks (FD)
- Jose Altuve – Astros
Notes: Albies has a .447 wOBA vs. LHP. McMahon gives you affordable LHH vs. Roark. Peraza could make the lineup with Scooter under the weather. Escobar faces a pitcher who has allowed a .391 wOBA vs. LHH. Altuve is far too cheap on DK and has a .444 wOBA vs. LHP.
- Eugenio Suarez – Reds
- Josh Donaldson – Braves
- Manny Machado – Padres
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies
- Matt Carpenter – Cardinals
- Kyle Seager – Mariners
Notes: Suarez has a .410 wOBA vs. LHP and 5 HRs in his last nine games. Donaldson has 5 HRs in his last seven games. Machado has a .444 wOBA over the last 30 days. Arenado has a .434 wOBA at home. Carpenter will get the bat going, and Seager gets to face Harvey.
- Francisco Lindor – Indians
- Fernando Tatis – Padres
- J.P. Crawford – Mariners
- Paul DeJong – Cardinals
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
- Willy Adames – Rays
Notes: Lindor has a .376 wOBA at home and good BvP vs. Odorizzi, who has started to regress. Tatis has a .392 wOBA at home and a .410 wOBA vs. RHP. Crawford has a .363 wOBA vs. RHP, and DeJong is another Cardinal too cheap on DK. Bogaerts crushes at home, and Adams is an FD value option who has a .374 wOBA on the road.
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Mallex Smith – Mariners
- Austin Riley – Braves
- Alex Dickerson – Giants
- Tommy Pham – Rays
- J.D. Martinez – Red Sox
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- Nick Senzel – Reds
- Yasiel Puig – Reds
- David Dahl – Rockies
- Phil Ervin – Reds
- Joey Gallo – Rangers
- Hunter Renfroe – Padres
- Franmil Reyes – Padres
- Ramiel Tapia – Rockies
- Ronald Acuna – Braves
- Guillermo Heredia – Rays
Notes: Blackmon has a .587 wOBA at home this season, and all LHH Rockies OFs are in play. Trout is the best player in the game and adds BvP tonight. Smith gets to lead-off against the worst pitcher on the slate. Riley has a .488 wOBA vs. LHP, and Dickerson has a .502 wOBA vs. RHP. All of the Reds OF is in play as well. This is a very deep position on this slate. The cheap value isn’t great at first look so will need to find some as lineups come out.
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