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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Thursday, June 6th
We have a split slate for Thursday with 5 games on the early slate on FanDuel and 7 games on the Draftkings early slate. The Houston at Seattle game is not on either of the bigger slates. We do have 5 games on both evening slates with some interesting decisions to be made in the pitching department. The early Thursday slate in particular have been very good to us over the last month.
For the early slate, there is likely to be a chalk pitcher in Zack Wheeler but not easy slam dunk decisions to be made in the hitting department.
For the late slate, the Yankees and the Rangers bats are likely to be heavily owned in cash games.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals will have storms on and off during the day. It doesn’t look like a rainout but a delay is a real possibility.
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals is a similar situation as Kansas City but doesn’t appear as widespread.
Vegas – Early
- MIL -190
- NYM -180
- STL -140
- ATL -123
Highest Run Expectancy
- ATL 4.88
- PIT 4.63
- MIL 4.45
- NYM 4.40
Lowest Run Expectancy
- MIA 3.05
- SF 3.11
- CIN 3.87
Vegas – Late
- NYY -190
- TEX -150
- LAA -138
Highest Run Expectancy
- TEX 5.85
- NYY 5.76
- LAA 4.87
- BAL 4.65
Lowest Run Expectancy
- WAS 3.64
- SD 3.87
- OAK 4.13
- MIN 4.14
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Max Scherzer||- - -||179.10||2.46||0.247||2.97||3.24||2.90||33.50||18.20||48.30||64.10%||43.50%||34.10||15.90%||50.30%||5.20||68.50%||33.70%||84.30||17.00%||48.40%||34.50%||1.15||46.70%||94.50||8.20|
Pitchers – Early
1) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets ($10,200 FD & $10,500 DK) – The runs allowed have been an issue lately for Wheeler who has given up 3 or more in his last 4 starts but he also has 11 straight games over going 6+ innings. The Giants are coming off a shutout loss to Jason Vargas last night and have a pathetic lineup.
2) Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves ($7,300 FD & $8,500 DK) – The homerun ball has been a problem but Folty has not walked a batter in his last 3 starts which is a great improvement from the start of the season. His pitches have been sharper after a really bad start to the season. The Pirates have the 5th lowest ISO since May 1st so that helps lower the risk a bit. The Draftkings price isn’t ideal but he lets you pay up for bats on FanDuel.
3) Dakota Hudson, RHP, Cardinals ($7,300 FD & $6,200 DK) – This would be a Draftkings specific play. Hudson has allowed less 3 ER’s in his last 7 starts even with his problems with LHH’s. He is not a big strikeout pitcher but don’t need a ton of them at this price. Hudson has also gone at least 6 innings in his last 4 starts.
4) Caleb Smith, LHP, Marlins ($9,400 DK) – This is one of the Draftkings only games on the early slate. Outside of one start, Smith has scored at least 17.9 DK point in every start this season. The Brewers have been a mess the last two days so if that trend continues Smith could have a big day. This is probably a better GPP play since the Brewers can be dangerous if they figure things out.
Pitchers – Late
1) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Indians ($10,400 FD & $9,400 DK) – The control has been better the last two starts with just 2 walks after a bout of wildness. I am not convinced he has figured things out but this slate is full of warts. The Twins have a dangerous lineup but even with his struggles Bauer is almost guaranteed of at least 5 innings even if he sucks. Minnesota has been hitting at an insane rate but they are also not as good long term as the numbers indicate.
2) Patrick Corbin, LHP, Nationals ($10,900 FD & $10,300 DK) – The Padres provide plenty of strikeout upside as they have a 28.3% K rate vs. LHP since May 1st along with just a .218 avg. Corbin is a different pitcher the last two seasons and knows the Padres well as he had 23 K’s in 17 innings over 3 starts lasts season.
3) Ariel Jurado, RHP, Rangers ($6,100 FD & $6,400 DK) – This is not a play I am particularly excited about but he is dirt cheap. The Orioles have the 6th lowest wOBA and 5th lowest batting average vs. RHP since May 1st. The Baltimore lineup has a few decent bats this season but those guys are also due for regression. Jurado has gone 6+ innings and allowed just 2 runs in each of his last two starts.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Miller Park – 6.8% above average in runs, 30.1% above average in HR’s.
2) PNC Park – 16.9% above average in runs, 6.5% above average in HR’s, 36.6% above average in 2B, 95.4% above average in 3B.
3) Rogers Center –5.2% above average in runs, 55.2% above average in HR’s, 213.8% above average in 3B.
4) Angel Stadium –8.2% above average in runs, 29.2% above average in HR’s.
Things To Target (Against)
Pitchers – Early
1) Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates – 5.17 xFIP, .386 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals – 4.96 xFIP, .422 wOBA vs. LHH
3) Daniel Norris, LHP, Tigers – 4.76 xFIP, .378 wOBA vs. LHH, .330 wOBA vs. RHH
4) Anthony DeSclafani, RHP, Reds – 4.67 xFIP, .431 wOBA vs. LHH
5) Dakota Hudson, RHP, Cardinals – .435 wOBA vs. LHH
6) Ryan Weber, RHP, Red Sox – .403 wOBA vs. LHH
7) Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves – 5.07 xFIP, .423 wOBA vs. RHH with 8 HR’s in 20 1/3 innings
Pitchers – Late
1) Edwin Jackson, RHP, Blue Jays – 5.62 xFIP, .618 wOBA vs. RHH, .386 wOBA vs. LHH
2) David Hess, RHP, Orioles – 5.71 xFIP, .422 wOBA vs. RHH with 16 HR’s in 34 innings vs. RHH
3) Mike Fiers, RHP, A’s – 5.43 xFIP
4) JA Happ, LHP, Yankees – 4.66 xFIP
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
1B – Carlos Santana – Indians
SS- Marcus Semien – A’s, Jorge Polanco – Twins,
OF – Mookie Betts – Red Sox, Khris Davis – A’s, Jesse Winker – Reds, Mike Trout – Angels, Wil Myers – Padres
Overall Hitter Rankings – Early
- Christian Vazquez – Red Sox
- Travis d’Arnaud – Rays
- Chris Iannetta – Rockies
- Victor Caratini – Cubs
Vazquez has hit LHP well since this season while d’Arnaud is a solid punt option. Iannetta has great on base vs. LHP in his career and Caratini & the Cubs usually beat up on bad pitching.
- Freddie Freeman – Braves
- Anthony Rizzo – Cubs
- Josh Bell – Pirates
- Pete Alonso – Mets
- Joey Votto – Reds
This position is loaded with great but not pricy options. Freeman didn’t deliver last night but should take advantage of this awful pitching staff. Bell has been the best hitting 1B this season. Votto is the best value option who has been a bit a better lately after a rough start.
- Derek Dietrich – Reds
- Eduardo Nunez – Red Sox
- Javier Baez – Cubs
- Kolten Wong – Cardinals
We couldn’t use him last night because of the weather but the same great match-up for Dietrich. Nunez has been hitting lately and is cheap. Baez loves bad pitching while the Cardinals should beat up DeSclafani.
- Matt Carpenter – Cardinals
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies
- Kris Bryant – Cubs
- Josh Donaldson – Braves
- Daniel Robertson – Rays
The weather is warming up and so is Carpenter as usual. Arenado crushes LHP but Bryant has a lesser opponent. Robertson gives you a punt option if you need it.
- Willy Adames – Rays
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
- Adalberto Mondesi – Royals
- Trevor Story – Rockies
- Dansby Swanson – Braves
Adames has been flashing some power and speed the last few days at a cheap price. Bogaerts hits LHP well but prefer him more at home. Mondesi has been hot over the last week. If you don’t use Adames, you will have to pay up.
- JD Martinez – Red Sox
- Jeff McNeil – Mets
- Jesse Winker – Reds
- Avisail Garcia – Rays
- Michael Conforto – Mets
- Tommy Pham – Rays
- Ryan Braun – Brewers
- Austin Meadows – Rays
- Dexter Fowler – Cardinals
- Austin Riley – Braves
- Nick Castellanos – Tigers
- Ronald Acuna – Braves
JD Vs. LHP is always a great option. McNeil returned from the IL the other day so gets a discounted price. Winker is another solid value in the middle of the order vs. a pitcher who struggles vs. LHH. Garcia hits well in his former ballpark along with his teammates being in a good spot.
Overall Hitter Rankings – Late
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Rangers
- Chance Sisco – Orioles
- Jonathan Lucroy – Angels
It is amazing Edwin Jackson gets another start so the best catcher in Sanchez gets an incredible match-up. Kiner-Falefa will face Hess who gives up a ton of HR’s to RHH. Sisco is a heavy OBP catcher who comes at a cheap price. Lucroy is only listed if for some reason the others above him are not in the lineup.
- Luke Voit – Yankees
- Logan Forsythe – Rangers
- Trey Mancini – Orioles
- Howie Kendrick – Nationals
- Kendry Morales – Yankees
You are going to see Yankees and Rangers on top at most position rankings on this slate against some terrible pitchers. Voit hasn’t shown as much power as I expected but still has been very good while Forsythe has been hitting both LHP and RHP pitching. Mancini is solid play while Kendrick has been great this season. Morales is dirt cheap on DK.
- DJ LeMahieu – Yankees
- Brian Dozier – Nationals
- Jason Kipnis – Indians
This position is a bit ugly on this slate. LeMahieu has a great match-up but not thrilled paying up for a guy who doesn’t possess much power. Dozier has been good vs. LHP and Kipnis is the best punt option on both sites.
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays
- Matt Chapman – A’s
- Jose Ramirez – Indians
- Anthony Rendon – Nationals
- Gio Urshela – Yankees
It is interesting to see Vlad Jr. coming in at a cheap price and yet still no one using him with all the pre-season hype. Chapman has crushed LHP this season which is what he did in the minors. Rendon has been great this season and has always crushed LHP but is expensive. Urshela gives you discounted Yankee exposure to Jackson.
- Francisco Lindor – Indians
- Manny Machado – Padres
- Elvis Andrus – Rangers
- Gleyber Torres – Yankees
- Richie Martin – Orioles
Lindor is the biggest beneficiary of the Indians cheating at home. Machado has been great vs. LHP and Andrus will look to attack Hess’s insane HR problems vs. RHH. Torres is another solid Yankee option while Martin is only here as a punt option.
- Yankees OF (Frazier/Hicks/ Gardner)
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Randall Grichuk – Blue Jays
- Khris Davis – A’s
- Hunter Pence – Rangers
- Hunter Renfroe – Padres
- Chad Pinder – A’s
- Keon Broxton – Orioles
- Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays
- Shin-Soo Choo – Rangers
- Nomar Mazara – Rangers
- Dwight Smith – Orioles
The Edwin Jackson effect has the Yankees at the top. The New York OF is based on order of preference. Trout is in the zone right now and teams seem to be pitching to him. Grichuk is a hot & cold player who is locked in right now. Davis is very cheap for his power potential and has great BvP. Pence isn’t cheap but Hess has been awful vs. RHH. Renfroe has always crushed LHP.