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430 EST UPDATE
Upgrade Cubs with wind blowing out.
For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Tuesday, June 4th
We have a full slate of games for this Tuesday coming off what was smallest slate of the season. There are terrible pitchers to pick on along with some top-notch arms to choose from. The weather looks good in most locations outside of the usual Midwest storm issues. There are several teams that are heavy favorites and that have 5+ plus expected run totals that should spread out some ownership. You will be able to build lineups in whatever way you to desire on this slate.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs will have a chance of evening storms. They shouldn’t cause a rainout but definitely a delay possibility.
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals will be a familiar story for the KC area. There are storms expected that will likely cause a delay.
- Tampa Bay Rays -260
- Washington Nationals -260
- Los Angeles Dodgers -215
- Chicago Cubs -190
- New York Yankees -180
- Boston Red Sox -175
- Atlanta Braves -170
- San Diego Padres -160
Highest Run Expectancy
- Boston Red Sox 6.01
- Texas Rangers 5.76
- Los Angeles Dodgers 5.60
- Washington Nationals 5.32
- Baltimore Orioles 5.24
- Tampa Bay Rays 5.22
Lowest Run Expectancy
- San Francisco Giants 3.17
- Chicago White Sox 3.18
- Philadelphia Phillies 3.23
- Detroit Tigers 3.28
- Miami Marlins 3.83
- New York Mets 3.84
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals – The White Sox are 30th in K% rate, 28th in ISO and 25th in wOBA vs. RHP over the last 30 days. They are 21st in K% rate, 27th in ISO and 28th in wOBA on the road this season. Chicago also loses the DH. Strasburg has the 4th lowest xFIP and 4th highest K% rate over the last 30 days for the pitchers on the slate. He gets the nod over Snell since he is usually allowed to throw more pitches.
2) Blake Snell, LHP, Rays – The Tigers are 20th in K% rate, 22nd in ISO and 25th wOBA over the last 30 days vs. LHP. They are also 21st in K% rate, 27th in ISO and 28th in wOBA at home this season. Snell has the best xFIP and highest K% rate over the last month of any pitcher on the slate. As mentioned with Strasburg, the biggest issue is that he rarely throws over 90 pitches.
3) Max Fried, LHP, Braves – He is talented youngster who has done great vs. below average hitting teams but not as great vs. better teams against LHP. The Pirates don’t provide much threat vs. LHP this season and they are 18th in wOBA & 25th in ISO over the last 30 days. The price on Draftkings is where I prefer Fried.
4) Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres – This is another pitcher who has dominated inferior opponents but struggled vs. the better teams. Paddack is an only a two-pitch pitcher and those don’t last long as starters as time goes on but he should handle this match-up. The Phillies are 23rd in K% rate, 26th in ISO, 26th in wOBA vs. RHP over the last 30 days vs. RHP. They are also 28th in ISO and 23rd in wOBA on the road this season.
5) Chase Anderson, RHP, Brewers – This is a play about picking on a crappy team as Anderson has not been great this season but comes cheap. The Marlins are 30th in ISO and 28th in wOBA vs. RHP over the last month. They are also 30th in ISO and 30th in wOBA on the road this season.
6) Masahiro Tanaka, RHP, Yankees – The Blue Jays even managed to struggle in Coors Field this past week as they are 28th in ISO and 28th in wOBA over the last 7 days. Toronto is 27th in K% rate, 22nd in ISO and 29th in wOBA at home this season along with 24th in ISO and 30th in wOBA vs. RHP over the last 30 days. Tanaka is still prone the HR ball but has thrown at least 6 innings in his last 5 starts and has allowed just a .204 average in his career at the Rogers Centre.
7) Wade Miley, LHP, Astros – It has been a resurgence for Miley this season. The Mariners have fallen apart as the season has gone on and Miley has gotten better. Houston has also dominated Seattle the last few seasons on the road. The Mariners 27th in K% rates, 20th in ISO, and 22nd in wOBA over the last 7 days. They are also 24th in K% rate, 18th in ISO and 19th in wOBA vs. LHP over the last 30 days along with having the highest K% rate at home this season.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Rogers Centre – 53.6% above average in HR’s
2) Miller Park – 30.8% above average in HR’s and the roof will likely be closed with potential storms in the area.
3) Angel Stadium – 30% above average in HR’s
Things To Target (Against)
1) Drew Smyly, LHP, Rangers – 6.07 xFIP, .443 wOBA vs. LHH, .364 wOBA vs. RHH, 6.77 xFIP in the last 30 days
2) Ryan Carpenter, LHP, Tigers – 5.45 xFIP, .420 wOBA vs. LHH, .370 wOBA vs. RHH
3) Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, White Sox – 5.86 xFIP, .424 wOBA vs. LHH with 8 HR’s allowed in 33 innings, .412 wOBA on the road, 18 runs allowed in 19 2/3 innings on the road
4) Steven Brault, LHP, Pirates – 5.59 xFIP, .403 wOBA vs. RHH
5) Taylor Clarke, RHP, Diamondbacks – 5.03 xFIP, .414 wOBA vs. LHH
6) Glenn Sparkman, RHP, Royals – 4.93 xFIP, .378 wOBA vs. LHH, 5.80 xFIP in the last 30 days
7) Jerad Eickhoff, RHP, Phillies – 4.74 xFIP, .401 wOBA vs. LHH, 5.75 xFIP in the last 30 days
8) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles – 4.75 xFIP, .364 wOBA vs. RHH with 10 HR’s in 32 1/3 innings
9) Jonathan Niese, LHP, Mariners – Last pitched in MLB in 2016 and had a 5.50 ERA in 121 innings.
10) Pablo Lopez, RHP, Marlins – 27 runs allowed in 28 1/3 innings on the road
11) Eduardo Rodriquez, LHP, Red Sox – 24 runs allowed in 30 1/3 innings on the road
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
1B – Edwin Encarnacion – Mariners, Daniel Murphy – Nationals
2B – Kolten Wong – Cardinals
3B – Todd Frazier – Mets, Matt Carpenter – Cardinals, Kris Bryant – Cubs
OF – Whit Merrifield – Royals, David Dahl – Rockies, Kole Calhoun – Angels, Domingo Santana – Mariners
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Robinson Chirinos – Astros
- Will Smith – Dodgers
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Yasmani Grandal – Brewers
- Wilson Contreras – Cubs
- Jorge Alfaro – Marlins
This is the deepest the catcher position has been all season. These are generally Draftkings specific rankings since it is not required on FD. Chirinos faces a bad LHP and hits in the middle of the order while coming at a discount compared to the expensive guys in good spots. Smith has taken over as the regular catcher for the Dodgers and comes cheap. Sanchez, Grandal and Contreras all in great spots but don’t come cheap. Alfaro is the hottest catcher over the last week.
- Eric Thames – Brewers
- Matt Adams – Nationals
- Pete Alonso – Mets
- Anthony Rizzo – Cubs
- Trey Mancini – Orioles
- Luke Voit – Yankees
Thames has a better price on FD while Adams fits better on DK. Alonso has great power vs. LHP. Rizzo has been hot the last month, great vs. RHP and great at home. Mancini gets to face the HR prone Smyly. Voit has quietly put together a great season. This is a position has plenty of other quality options that just don’t make the list tonight.
- Hanser Alberto – Orioles
- Mike Moustakas – Brewers
- Ozzie Albies – Braves
- DJ Lemahieu – Yankees
- Rougned Odor – Rangers
Alberto has hit LHP well this season and is a solid value on FD. Moustakas was hot before the hand injury so hopefully is back in the lineup. Albies can’t RHP but has been solid vs. LHP so you get him a decent price. Lemahieu is just a quality hitter but maybe a little higher priced than I like.
- Eugenio Suarez – Reds
- Kris Bryant – Cubs
- Josh Donaldson – Cubs
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox
- Asdrubal Cabrera – Rangers
- Alex Bregman – Astros
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays
Suarez has crushed LHP in his career while Bryant & the Cubs should knock around Hoffman. Donaldson hasn’t done much vs. LHP this season but has great history and is best priced on DK. Devers has been great the last month while Cabrera has hit well at home. Bregman is one of the few guys left standing for Houston while Vlad is too cheap on DK.
- Corey Seager – Dodgers
- Francisco Lindor – Indians
- Willy Adames – Rays
- Javy Baez – Cubs
- Trevor Story – Rockies
It took awhile but Seager appears to have found his groove. Lindor at home vs. a rookie LHP in a great spot. Adames provides the best value vs. a bad LHP and could find himself in the middle of the order. Baez and Story we know can hit but are probably just too expensive on this slate.
- Cody Bellinger/Joc Pederson – Dodgers
- Christian Yelich/Ryan Braun – Brewers
- Keon Broxton – Orioles
- JD Martinez – Red Sox
- Tommy Pham/Avisail Garcia – Rays
- Jordan Luplow – Pirates
- Austin Riley – Braves
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Juan Soto – Nationals
- Nomar Mazara/ Shin-Soo Choo – Rangers
- Whit Merrifield – Royals
- Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
- Josh Naylor – Padres
- Carlos Gonzalez – Cubs
- Curtis Granderson – Marlins
Bellinger and Yelich are facing bad pitchers but don’t come cheap. The Dodgers pair are expensive on DK but you can get Braun much cheaper on FD. Broxton is a good value on both sites and gets to hit in Arlington. Pham and Garcia will be in a good spot if they return to the lineup. Luplow has shown great power vs. LHP this season. Trout is locked in if they pitch to him. The Rangers OF face the improved yet HR friendly Bundy. The last 3 guys give you some cheaper priced bats in good spots.