For the time being, we will post our DFS MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. We will update it with links to each piece when it is LIVE so check back throughout the day:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
Going Deep – Breaking down what pitchers, hitters and ballparks to target and avoid when hunting for the long ball.
MLB Now Livestream – Daily video show breaking down the players, matchups & slate.
MLB Summary – A quick summary of the articles, shows & coaching sessions from today.
Also Be Sure To Bookmark:
We have a split slate Saturday of 8 games starting at around 4 EST and a 6-game slate starting around 815 EST. The Yankees and Red Sox play an early afternoon game in London so are not covered in this breakdown.
The breakdown has information and rankings for both slates. The lineup building is much easier on the early slate with some good cheap pitching options. It will be a little more challenging on the evening slate with the high-priced bats.
Friday was not a good night for me personally as I managed to pay up for Trout, Yelich & Bellinger and they scored a whopping 3.2 FD points and 2 DK points. I don’t think that has happened all season for that group.
Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles have a chance for some pop-up storms. There is a delay possibility but the game should get played.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets have storms possible in the late afternoon hours. This is yet another game with delays possible but should get played.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox has a small chance for some storms where it will be very humid and hot.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers will be hot yet again so the ball will be flying like we have seen the last two nights.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 62.9% above average in runs scored, 40.0% above average in HR’s, 30.2% above average in 2B and 226.3% above average in 3B.
2) Great American Ballpark –15.9% above average in runs scored, 17.9%. above average in HR’s.
3) Guaranteed Rate Field – 12.9% above average in runs scored, 27.3% above average in HR’s.
4) Oriole Park at Camden Yards – 12.7% above average in runs scored, 38% above average in HR’s, 63.5% above average in 3B’s.
5) Rogers Centre – 46.3% above average in HR’s.
6) Angel Stadium in Anaheim – 26.9% above average in HR’s.
7) Miller Park – 18.2% above average in HR’s.
(click on link above)
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
BATTER VS. PITCHER
1B – Joey Votto – Reds
2B – Jonathan Schoop – Twins, Daniel Descalso – Cubs
3B – Kyle Seager – Mariners
SS – Marcus Semien – A’s, Tim Beckham – Mariners
OF – Cody Bellinger – Dodgers, Khris Davis – A’s, Curtis Granderson – Marlins
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
HOT STREAKS (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Today’s Pitching Grid
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Max Scherzer||- - -||179.10||2.46||0.247||2.97||3.24||2.90||33.50||18.20||48.30||64.10%||43.50%||34.10||15.90%||50.30%||5.20||68.50%||33.70%||84.30||17.00%||48.40%||34.50%||1.15||46.70%||94.50||8.20|
1) Tampa Bay Rays -170
2) Minnesota Twins -160
3) Cleveland Indians -158
4) Toronto Blue Jays -154
5) Philadelphia Phillies -130
Highest Run Expectancy
1) Minnesota Twins 5.82
2) Cleveland Indians 5.81
3) Toronto Blue Jays 5.04
4) Cincinnati Reds 4.98
5) New York Mets 4.81
Lowest Run Expectancy
1) Texas Rangers 3.41
2) Miami Marlins 3.85
3) Kansas City Royals 3.96
4) Philadelphia Phillies 4.15
5) Chicago Cubs 4.52
1) Austin Voth, RHP, Nationals ($6,200 FD & $8,100 DK) – It is a close battle between McKay and Voth on Fanduel on who to use. McKay is a more talented pitcher but has some pitch count concerns. Voth faces a Tigers team with the 2nd highest K% rate, 2nd lowest ISO and lowest wOBA vs. RHP. I am not sure if I love the price on Draftkings but not many cheap options over there.
2) Brendan McKay, LHP, Rays ($5,700 FD & $7,600 DK) – A rare two-way player who was dominating in the minors. McKay had a 11.9 K/9 in the minors with 1.22 ERA & 0.80 WHIP in 13 minor league appearances. The match-up vs. the Rangers works great for me but worried McKay would be at a max of 85 pitches in his MLB debut and could be as low as 65. He only threw more than 67 pitches once (his last one) in the last 6 minor league starts.
3) Zack Eflin, RHP, Phillies ($9,300 FD & $9,300 DK) – The Marlins have been throwing a rather RHH heavy lineup as of late which only makes it easier for Eflin. He has allowed just a .275 wOBA vs. RHH this season. Miami has the 8th highest K% rate, 3rd lowest ISO and 4th lowest wOBA vs. RHP in the month of June.
4) Luis Castillo, RHP, Reds ($9,600 FD & $11,200 DK) – The most upside of any pitcher on the slate but doesn’t come without risk. The Cubs can be a dangerous lineup and Castillo has not been going very deep into games lately with high pitch counts. He is better suited for GPP’s.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Gregory Soto, LHP, Tigers – 6.01 xFIP, .440 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Ivan Nova, RHP, White Sox – 4.74 xFIP, .385 wOBA vs. LHH with a 1.82 HR/9, .370 wOBA vs. RHH
3) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Orioles – 5.11 xFIP, .366 wOBA vs. RHH with a 2.14 HR/9, 6.29 xFIP in the last 30 days
4) Adrian Sampson, RHP, Rangers – 4.91 xFIP, .366 wOBA vs. RHH with a 1.99 HR/9
5) Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves – 5.21 xFIP, 5.65 xFIP in the last 30 days
6) Zach Plesac, RHP, Indians – 4.86 xFIP
7) Steve Matz, LHP, Mets – .416 wOBA vs. LHH with 1.76 HR/9, 2.25 HR/9 vs. RHH, 5.43 xFIP over the last 30 days
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Chance Sisco – Orioles
2) Yan Gomes – Nationals
3) Mitch Garver – Twins
4) Luke Maile – Blue Jays
Notes: Sisco caught the game last night and had a monster game even with a HR being robbed on a great catch. The Orioles would be stupid to not at least DH him. Gomes gives you a punt option against a bad Tigers pitching staff. Garver has crushed this season but is expensive. Maile is a minimum priced punt play.
1) Howie Kendrick – Nationals
2) CJ Cron – Twins
3) Carlos Santana – Indians
4) Freddie Freeman – Braves
5) Pete Alonso – Mets
Notes: Soto gets the start so all Nationals are going to be in play. Kendrick is best priced on FD. Cron is affordable on both sites and Santana is priced a little high. Freeman against a LHP is not something that normally interests me but Matz struggles vs. LHH.
1) Jonathan Schoop – Twins
2) Ozzie Albies – Braves
3) Cavan Biggio – Blue Jays
4) Brandon Lowe – Rays
Notes: Schoop has been much better on the road and has good numbers vs. Nova. Albies hits LHP much better than RHP. Biggio has shown a little pop and good on base ability. Lowe is always swinging for the fences.
1) Eugenio Suarez – Reds
2) Anthony Rendon – Nationals
3) Hunter Dozier – Royals
4) Miguel Sano – Twins
Notes: Suarez didn’t show much in the box score last night but had 2 BB’s and lined out the other 3 times. A big game is coming soon. Rendon against a terrible LHP doesn’t get much better. Dozier and Sano will be lower owned but in a great spot to go deep.
1) Trea Turner – Nationals
2) Jorge Polanco – Twins
3) Jonathan Villar – Orioles
4) Jose Peraza – Reds
Notes: The price tag is expensive but the match-up is great for Turner. Polanco has been productive all season just not when I have used him. Villar is a very hot and cold hitter who is currently riding a heater. Peraza is a punt option if he makes the lineup.
1) Max Kepler – Twins
2) Nelson Cruz – Twins
3) Lourdes Gurriel – Blue Jays
4) Bobby Bradley – Indians (FD)
5) Tommy Pham – Rays
6) Juan Soto – Nationals
7) Austin Riley – Braves
8) Nick Senzel – Reds
9) Phil Ervin – Reds
10) Jake Cave – Twins
11) Austin Meadows – Rays
12) Victor Robles – Nationals
Notes: The Twins should destroy Nova after the 18-inning hangover game on Friday. Gurriel has been hitting over his head but I will continue to ride it. Bradley is a great value option. Pham should take advantage of Sampson’s reverse splits and the same for Soto vs. Soto.
1) Houston Astros -285
2) Milwaukee Brewers -210
3) Los Angeles Dodgers -145
4) Arizona Diamondbacks -143
5) Los Angeles Angels –140
Highest Run Expectancy
1) Los Angeles Dodgers 6.76
2) Houston Astros 6.18
3) Colorado Rockies 5.74
4) Milwaukee Brewers 5.72
5) Los Angeles Angels 5.23
Lowest Run Expectancy
1) Seattle Mariners 3.32
2) San Francisco Giants 3.48
3) St Louis Cardinals 3.70
4) Pittsburgh Pirates 3.78
5) Arizona Diamondbacks 4.02
1) Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks ($9,500 FD & $9,500 DK)– The Giants have 3rd lowest wOBA vs. RHP and 6th lowest ISO. They also have the 2nd lowest wOBA and 2nd lowest ISO at home. Greinke has dominated the Giants in his career allowing just a .263 wOBA vs. the current roster.
2) Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros ($11,500 FD & $11,500 DK) – Verlander is the best option if the cost doesn’t matter. The issue is that the value bats are not easy to find. He has 18 K’s in 12 1/3 innings vs. Seattle this season. Verlander has gone at least 6 innings in 16 of his 17 starts this season and has more quality starts than anyone in the league.
3) Dakota Hudson, RHP, Cardinals ($8,400 FD & $6,900 DK) – This would be a Draftkings specific play. Hudson allows just a .250 wOBA vs. RHH and the Padres tend to have a RHH heavy lineup. There has been only 1 start all season where Hudson has allowed more than 3 ER’s. He isn’t a strikeout guy but to get 8 straight quality starts is a solid result.
4) Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers ($9,100 FD & $8,100 DK) – There have been a few blow-up spots but Woodruff is capable of big strikeout numbers. He is averaging 12.6 K/9 at home this season. Woodruff has gone at least 6 innings in his last 4 starts and has 3 double digit strikeout games. There will be some runs allowed but those can be ok with the strikeout potential.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Mariners – 5.03 xFIP, 1.88 HR/9, 6.35 xFIP in the last 30 days, 2.16 HR/9 vs. LHH, .361 wOBA vs. RHH with a 1.81 HR/9
2) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Giants – 2.31 HR/9, .405 wOBA vs. RHH with a 2.59 HR/9
3) Dakota Hudson, RHP, Cardinals – .386 wOBA vs. LHH with a 1.88 HR/9
4) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Pirates – .367 wOBA vs. LHH with a 1.85 HR/9
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Robinson Chirinos – Astros
2) Francisco Mejia – Padres
3) Carson Kelly – Diamondbacks
4) Josh Phegley – A’s
Notes: Chirinos was one of the few Astros to do anything on Friday and that offense is due to get going. Mejia will hopefully be in the lineup vs. Hudson who struggles vs. LHH. Kelly is the hottest hitting catcher who faces a HR prone pitcher.
1) Eric Thames – Brewers
2) Joc Pederson – Dodgers (FD)
3) Matt Beatty – Dodgers
4) Josh Bell – Pirates
Notes: Thames should take advantage of Lyles issues vs. LHH. Pederson is expensive but leads off in Coors though doesn’t have great success vs. Gray. Beatty is cheap for Coors exposure. Bell is a solid play but just expensive.
1) Jose Altuve – Astros
2) Max Muncy – Dodgers
3) Mike Moustakas – Brewers
4) Keston Hiura – Brewers
Notes: This is a position that you will want to try and pay up for. Altuve is too cheap on DK vs. a bad LHP. Muncy has great numbers vs. Gray but is expensive. Moustakas has been great at home and Hiura is cheap but due to hit based on his great success in the minors.
1) Nolan Arenado – Rockies
2) Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks
3) Matt Chapman – A’s
4) Justin Turner – Dodgers
Notes: I made the mistake of not getting more Arenado against a LHP last night but won’t do the same tonight. Escobar has great numbers vs. LHP but will likely see lower ownership. Chapman is the cheapest of the group on DK. There are no attractive cheap options at this point.
1) Alex Bregman – Astros
2) Marcus Semien – A’s
3) Nick Ahmed – Diamondbacks.
4) Garrett Hampson – Rockies (FD)
5) Pat Valiaka – Rockies (DK)
Notes: Bregman and the Astros should be popular. Semien leading off against a LHP is solid option and has BvP. Ahmed gives you a value option. Both Rockies would give you cheap Coors Field exposure.
1) Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
2) Christian Yelich – Brewers
3) George Springer – Astros
4) Mike Trout – Angels
5) Ian Desmond – Rockies
6) Stephen Piscotty – A’s
7) Alex Dickerson – Giants
8) Corey Dickerson – Pirates
9) Chad Pinder – A’s
10) Jose Martinez – Cardinals
Notes: It is tough to separate the Top 4 guys. Bellinger gets the nod since he has owned Gray. There is no way Yelich takes another 0. Springer is the top of the Astros lineup. Trout is Trout but will be low owned. The rest of the group gives you solid mid-priced options. The cheap punt options are tough to find.