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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Friday, June 28th
It is good to be back after a week off of the Cash Game Breakdown. We have 14 games on the Friday slate that is just missing the Red Sox vs. Yankees who are traveling to London for a weekend series.
The weather has really heated up which should be mean plenty of offense to be seen on Friday. This is yet another reason that paying up for the bats is a great thing. The good news on this slate is that we some very solid cheap pitching options to choose from. The Dodgers look to be the chalk as they face a terrible pitcher and get a very warm Coors Field. There are a few TBD starters out there so will provide any updates if we have any surprise to the expected starters. It should be a fun slate.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
It is going to be hot all over the country with temperatures close to 90 degrees just about everywhere. A few games have a small chance at isolated thunderstorms but we should feel good that every game is played.
- LAD -205
- CLE -180
- WAS -156
- MIL -148
- PHI -140
Highest Run Expectancy
- LAD 6.75
- MIL 5.85
- WAS 5.78
- CLE 5.11
- TOR 5.01
Lowest Run Expectancy
- ATL 3.47
- MIA 3.76
- BAL 3.89
- ARI 3.95
- STL 4.00
Today's Pitchers Grid
1a) Yonny Chirinos, RHP, Rays ($6,300 FD & $8,400 DK) – Depending the site you are playing, there is a #1 for each one. Chirinos is dirt cheap on FD. The Rangers can hit at home but are not as dangerous on the road where they rank 29th in K% rate, 27% in ISO, and 20th in wOBA over the last month. The Rays played an 18-inning game yesterday so Chirinos should have a longer leash to protect that bullpen. He has also shutdown LHH this season which is what the Rangers lineup can be loaded with on most nights.
1b) Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins ($7,200 FD & $6,500 DK) – The youngster has been great in the minors this season and has been solid since his promotion. Hernandez has hit a rough inning in each start but still has produce solid numbers. He has a 14.0% swinging strike rate this season. LHH hitters have been a problem for him but he likely won’t see a heavy LHH lineup from the Phillies. He has a solid FanDuel price but I am more interested on Draftkings.
3) Mike Clevinger, RHP, Indians ($9,400 FD & $9,600 DK) – If not for coming off an injury and on a different slate, Clevinger would find himself higher on these rankings. He only has 3 starts this season but has a 16.5% swinging strike rate and a 46.8% K rate. The Orioles are 28th in K% rate, 27th in ISO and 29th in wOBA over the last month vs. RHP. They are also 27th in K% rate, 22nd in ISO and 25th in wOBA at home over the last month.
4) Eric Lauer, LHP, Padres ($7,700 FD & $6,200 DK) – This a Draftkings specific play. You can pair with Hernandez and afford just about every bat you want. The Cardinals are 30th in ISO and 28th in wOBA over the last week. They are also 29th in wOBA over the last month vs. LHP. St. Louis has also struggled on the road with the 27th K% rate and 26th in wOBA over the last month. Lauer has only allowed 14 runs in his 8 home starts this season.
5) Jacob Degrom, RHP, Mets – ($11,200 FD & $11,200 DK) – We have seen the return of the 2018 version of Degrom. He has allowed 2 runs or less in his last 7 starts and 10 in his last 11 games. The Braves are not an easy match-up and he hasn’t been great vs. them in his career. Degrom did strikeout 10 in 8 1/3 innings two starts ago vs. the Braves before a couple of solo HR’s in the 9th inning. The price tag isn’t cheap but don’t blame someone for using him either.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 60.9% above average in runs scored, 35.8% above average in HR’s, 28.4% above average in 2B and 217.9% above average in 3B.
2) Great American Ballpark –15.9% above average in runs scored, 17.9%. above average in HR’s.
3) Guaranteed Rate Field – 12.9% above average in runs scored, 27.3% above average in HR’s.
4) Oriole Park at Camden Yards – 12.7% above average in runs scored, 38% above average in HR’s, 63.5% above average in 3B’s.
5) Rogers Centre – 46.7% above average in HR’s.
6) Angel Stadium in Anaheim – 26.4% above average in HR’s.
7) Miller Park – 20.2% above average in HR’s.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Brewers – 5.54 xFIP, .335 wOBA vs. LHH, .363 wOBA vs. RHH with 2.09 HR/9, 5.21 xFIP over the last 30 days
2) Antonio Senzatela, RHP, Rockies – 5.01 xFIP, .403 wOBA vs. LHH with a 1.65 HR/9, 5.14 xFIP in the last 30 days.
3) Mike Fiers, RHP, A’s – 5.53 xFIP, 5.64 xFIP in the last 30 days
4) Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals – 5.21 xFIP, .378 wOBA vs. LHH, 5.43 xFIP in the last 30 days
5) Anibal Sanchez, RHP, Nationals – 4.98 xFIP, .367 wOBA vs. LHH with 2.45 HR/9
6) Michael Wacha, RHP, Cardinals – 4.88 xFIP, .419 wOBA vs. RHH with 2.79 HR/9
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – James McCann – White Sox
3B – Nolan Arenado – Rockies
OF – Mike Trout – Angels, Lorenzo Cain – Brewers
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Yan Gomes – Nationals
- Danny Jansen – Blue Jays
- Robinson Chirinos – Astros
- Roberto Perez – Indians
- Tom Murphy – Mariners
- Yasmani Grandal – Brewers
This is not a loaded position for a 14 game slate but we do have some solid options. I do prefer to pay down at catcher with a few sub 3k options on DK. There are some expensive options that could produce that I can’t pay up for. Guys like Chirinos, Perez and Murphy are all mid-tier options with some power potential.
- Joc Pederson – Dodgers (FD)
- Matt Beatty – Dodgers
- Howie Kendrick – Nationals
- Matt Olson – A’s
- Eric Thames – Brewers
Pederson is 1B only on FD and OF on DK. Beatty is very affordable on both sites vs. a pitcher who sucks vs. LHH. Kendrick has a great price on FD. Both Olson and Thames gives you plenty of power.
- Brian Dozier – Nationals
- Max Muncy – Dodgers
- Jose Altuve – Astros
- Mike Moustakas – Brewers
- Harold Castro – Tigers
Dozier is cheap on both sites and has crushed LHP this season. Muncy may have more total points but prefer Dozier for the discount if you need it. Altuve has always hit LHP well and Mouse has been great at home this season. Castro is a punt option if needed for both sites.
- Anthony Rendon – Nationals
- Eugenio Suarez – Reds
- Justin Turner – Dodgers
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies
- Jeimer Candelario – Tigers
Rendon is expensive but crushes LHP. Suarez has plenty of power, in a great ballpark and against a pitcher who can give up HR’s. Turner and the Dodgers will be popular while Arenado has great numbers vs. Ryu ( though he has been a different pitcher this year). Candelario is a value option.
- Alex Bregman – Astros
- Fernando Tatis – Padres
- Trea Turner – Nationals
- Chris Taylor – Dodgers
- Niko Goodrum – Tigers
- Tim Beckham – Mariners
This is a pay up position but the only tough part is figuring out which one to go with. There are plenty of expensive options in good spots. Taylor has a big price different on FD vs. DK. Goodrum is affordable option if you want to pay down and Beckham is there you need to punt.
- Christian Yelich – Brewers
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Corey Dickerson – Pirates (FD)
- Alex Verdugo – Dodgers (FD)
- Joc Pederson – Dodgers (DK)
- Jake Cave – Twins
- Alex Dickerson – Giants
- Hunter Renfroe – Padres
- Franmil Reyes – Padres
- Domingo Santana – Mariners
- Jose Martinez – Cardinals
- George Springer – Astros
- Ian Desmond – Rockies (FD)
- Mac Williamson – Mariners (DK)
This will make for some tough decisions. We have 3 superstars all in great spots. I ranked them in order of preference as it is probably unrealistic to get all 3 in your lineups. Dickerson and Verdugo have better prices on FD. Pederson is only eligible on DK in the OF. Cave is a punt option if Rosario remains out of the lineup and still surprised that the Padres gave up on Dickerson. Both Renfroe and Reyes will look to take advantage of Wacha’s issues with RHH. Reyes has a much better price on DK. I may add some more value options as lineups come out if needed.