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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Thursday, June 20th
This slate sets up rather nicely for the pay down in the pitching department. We have a multitude of cheaper pitching options that allow you to pay up for bats. Outside of my dud on Tuesday, Jeff has been on-fire the last few days. Thursday have been very good all season so will look to continue that trend.
The outfield features a couple of stud OFs that I would love to fit in my lineups together. The good news is that we have some fair priced options on the infield that it should be possible. We have weather to track once again on the East Coast which has been a common theme all week. One of my favorite games to target on this slate will be the Reds @ Brewers as we get good prices on several guys.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees will have storms in the area that we will need to track. The same old story we have seen lately.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals have some early evening storms that should clear out but a late start is possible.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals are expecting some warmer temperatures so the ball will be carrying in KC more than it usually does.
- LAD -195
- MIN -185
- STL -158
- LAA -150
- MIL -143
Highest Run Expectancy
- LAA 5.46
- MIN 5.44
- MIL 5.25
- SEA 4.87
- STL 4.61
Lowest Run Expectancy
- SF 2.86
- MIA 3.40
- OAK 4.00
- TB 4.00
- KC 4.07
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Adam Wainwright, RHP, Cardinals ($7,500 DK & $8,000 FD) – The Marlins had a nice run but are back to being a punchless team and even more so if Garrett Cooper remains out. They are 25th in ISO and 17th in wOBA over the last month vs. RHP even with that good run. Miami is also 30th in ISO and 23rd in wOBA on the road this season. Wainwright has been much better at home this including allowing just 5 runs over his last 4 starts. He loves the curveball and the Marlins have struggled to hit that this season.
2) Zac Gallen, RHP, Marlins ($7,300 DK & $7,000 FD) – It is surprising how bad the Cardinals have been over the last month in the hitting department based on their talent. The head to head match-up vs. Wainwright is not ideal but Gallen was dominant in the minors this season. Gallen has a 1.77 ERA, 0.71 WHIP with 11.0 K/9 over 14 starts. St. Louis is 26th in K% rate, 29th in ISO and 29th in wOBA vs. RHP over the last month. They are also 21st in K% rate, 26th in ISO and 29th in wOBA at home this season.
3) Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros ($7,100 DK & $7,400 FD) – The Yankees appear to be a very good hitting team but have really struggled vs. LHP this season. Stanton has returned but hasn’t hit in Yankee Stadium and while Didi has returned he isn’t a big threat vs. LHP. The Yankees are 25th in K% rate, 23rd in ISO and 30th in wOBA vs. LHP over the last 30 days. Valdez won’t be allowed a big pitch count which hurts but has thrown 13 innings with 15 K’s allowing just 3 runs in his first two MLB starts even with hovering around 85 pitches.
4) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Twins ($10,800 DK & $10,000 FD) – My initial thoughts was I didn’t want to consider Odorizzi at all this season but the numbers are in his favor. Odorizzi’s performance is due for a regression but don’t think it is this time out. The Royals are 19th in K% rate, 27th in ISO and 27th in wOBA over the last 30 days vs. RHP. They also don’t hit at home as they are 30th in K% rate, 25th in ISO and 26th in WOBA this season. This speed centered lineup won’t work in the current HR friendly era.
5) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles ($7,600 DK & $7,300 FD) – The HR ball has been a problem the last year and half for Bundy but he has better lately. The strikeouts have not been as good this season but he has not allowed more 3 ER’s in his last 8 starts. If you throw out Suarez and his limited starts, no pitcher on this slate has a higher swinging strike rate so big K potential is there. The Mariners are 19th in K% rate, 27th in ISO and 27th in wOBA over the last months. They are also 28th in K% rate at home this season.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) SunTrust Park – 20.7% above average in runs, 36.0% above average in HR’s, 23.7% above average in 2B
2) Rogers Centre – 51.6% above average in HR’s, 71.3% above average in 3B.
3) Nationals Park – 7.3% above average in runs, 18.6% above average in HR’s, 21.2% above average in 2B.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Glenn Sparkman, RHP, Tigers – 5.24 xFIP (6.46 xFIP over the last 30 day), .380 wOBA vs. LHH
2) Wilmer Font, RHP, Mets – 5.23 xFIP (5.73 xFIP over the last 30 days), .353 wOBA vs. LHH
3) Clayton Richard, LHP, Jays – 5.62 xFIP, .430 wOBA vs. RHH
4) Erick Fedde, RHP, Nationals – 5.17 xFIP (5.41 xFIP over the last 30 days), .380 wOBA vs. LHH
5) Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Brewers – 9 runs allowed in 7 inning MLB starts, 18 BB’s in 31 innings in MLB & the minors this season
6) Adam Wainwright, RHP, Cardinals – .404 wOBA vs. LHH
7) Tanner Roark, RHP, Reds – .381 wOBA vs. LHH
8) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Cubs – .368 wOBA vs. LHH
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Jonathan Lucroy – Angels
1B – Joey Votto – Reds
2B – Kike Hernandez – Dodgers
3B – Anthony Rendon – Nationals, David Freese – Dodgers
SS – Trea Turner – Nationals, Marcus Semien – A’s
OF – Whit Merrifield – Royals, Justin Upton – Angels
Overall Hitter Rankings
- JT Realmuto – Phillies
- Pedro Severino – Orioles
- Willson Contreras – Cubs
- Kevan Smith – Angels
- Danny Jansen/Luke Maile – Blue Jays
The best catchers don’t come cheap. Realmuto and the Phillies should beat up on Fedde. Severino has good numbers vs. LHP and Contreras continues to rake. Smith has good numbers vs. LHP. The Blue Jays catchers are not bad punt options being so cheap. I didn’t list Garver but he is in a good spot but I just can’t see paying over 5k for him.
- Eric Thames – Brewers
- Joey Votto – Reds
- Rhys Hoskins – Phillies
- Anthony Rizzo – CubS
- Pete Alonso – Mets
- Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals
Thames has crushed the Reds in his career but has not played much lately against a bunch of LHP. He has homered in his last two starts and comes in very affordable. Votto has been getting better lately and has good BvP. Hoskins is always underowned. Rizzo and Alonso would be higher on the list if the hitting conditions were better. Goldy is an honorable mention as he almost hit a walk off PH homer in the 9th before hitting one in the 11th last night. He has been great as the weather warms up in his career.
- Derek Dietrich – Reds
- Mike Moustakas – Brewers
- Hanser Alberto – Orioles
- Kike Hernandez – Dodgers
Big fan of the game in Milwaukee with some weak starters on the mound. Dietrich can double dong at any point and Moustakas should be back from his hand injury. Alberto should be leading off if the Orioles based their lineup on LeBlanc throwing the most innings which is expected. Kike owns MadBum but hasn’t been hitting much this season.
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays
- Anthony Rendon – Nationals
- Travis Shaw – Brewers
- Kris Bryant – Cubs
- Alex Bregman – Astros
The minor league numbers were too great for me to ignore his price against young pitcher for Vlad. Rendon is the best pure hitter at the position while Shaw has been much better since his return to the big leagues. Bryant as I mentioned in the first base position doesn’t have a great hitting environment but finds himself in a great spot. Bregman should be more expensive on DK and is also SS eligible on both sites.
- Javier Baez – Cubs
- Jorge Polanco – Twins
- Trea Turner – Nationals
- Alex Bregman – Astros
- JP Crawford – Mariners
Baez has not been good lately with the high strikeouts but faces a pitcher who can’t miss bats, this is a great rebound spot for his discounted price. Polanco has been great vs. RHP on the road. Turner has good BvP and will likely bounce back after a disappointing performance last night. Crawford is the best of the cheaper options but probably would pay up on the slate if I can.
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Christian Yelich – Brewers
- Jesse Winker – Reds
- Max Kepler – Twins
- Justin Upton – Angels
- Yasiel Puig – Reds
- Bryce Harper – Phillies
- Michael Conforto – Mets
- Yordan Alvarez – Astros
- Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
- Juan Soto – Nationals
- Randall Grichuk – Blue Jays (DK)
- Ryan Braun – Brewers
- Lourdes Gurriel – Blue Jays
- Jeff McNeil – Mets
I don’t like chasing big games but Trout finds himself in a great spot once again and almost had a 3 HR last night but settled for 2. Yelich at home has been amazing this season. Winker is 8 for his last 15 along with Puig are finally starting to hit and come in at affordable prices. Kepler has been great but is expensive. Upton hits is HR’s in bunches and ideally would like to see him hitting behind Trout. This is a position where I want to try and get both the big guys in my lineup if I can.