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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Tuesday, June 18th
Let’s keep the hot streak going!!! I will try not to suck!! We have a full 15 game slate but that could be shortened with all the terrible weather on the East Coast. We don’t want to get caught with a postponement like we saw with the Phillies and Nationals game last night. The great news about this slate is that we get some discounted pitching to choose from.
There is one position that is amazingly thin considering the fact that we have a full slate which you will see below. There are multiple stud pitchers on the slate but only one of them do I even consider using in Cash. We do see some varied pricing on both sites that make some plays better than others.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals are expecting storms once again and we know how poorly they handle it. The good news is that really don’t want to postpone another one so should try to play.
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates has anywhere from 50% to 70% chance of storms that we will need to track.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees are expecting rain but things appears better than the other East Coast games.
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds is yet another game with weather issues though it does appear to clear out as the night goes on.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves will have pop-up storms to deal with though it does not look as bad as the games further north.
- LAD -280
- CHC -230
- STL -220
- OAK -215
- HOU -163
Highest Run Expectancy
- ARI 5.52
- NYY 5.47
- OAK 5.46
- CLE 5.45
- WAS 5.13
Lowest Run Expectancy
- SF 2.90
- MIA 3.17
- BAL 3.54
- CIN 3.55
- DET 3.79
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros ($11,900 DK & $12,000 FD) – He is coming off a 15 K game and has a 32.8% K rate along with 15.9% swinging strike rate this season. Verlander has also dominated in Interleague play in his career allowing just a .601 OPS against. He has a QS in 13 of his 15 starts this season and at least 7 K’s in all but 3 starts this season. The biggest obstacle is the price.
2) Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals ($8,700 DK & $8,000 FD) – The Marlins had a nice little hot streak but have come back to reality. They have the 5th highest K rate, lowest ISO and lowest wOBA over the last 10 days. Flaherty has been much better at home with a .244 wOBA allowed. The control has been much better with a 6.4 K/BB ratio at home vs. a 2 K/BB on the road. The price tag is very affordable on both sites and he is likley to be popular.
3) Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Mariners ($5,300 DK & $6,000 FD) – The overall numbers are tough to swallow but his numbers have been much better when he gets extra rest. Kikuchi had extra rest in hit last start and performed much better than the disasters we saw before. The same thing happened earlier in the season when the team took the same route. Tommy Milone shutdown the Royals last night who are last in wOBA, 2nd to last in ISO and have the 2nd highest K% rate over the last month.
4) Patrick Corbin, LHP, Nationals ($8,200 DK & $9,400 FD) – This is a Draftkings specific play as the price on FanDuel is not worth it. Corbin has the 5th best K% rate and 5th best swinging strike rate on the slate. He has also pitched much better at home allowing just a .225 wOBA with a 10.1 K/9 rate.
5) Cole Hamels, LHP, Cubs ($10,500 DK & $8,600 FD) – This a FanDuel specific play with an insane price on Draftkings. The White Sox lose the DH which has seemed to help Hamels quite a bit since returning to the NL. Hamels has not allowed an ER over his last 3 starts throwing 22 innings with 23 K’s with just 11 hits allowed. The groundball rate at 52.8% is the best in his entire career.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Great American Ballpark – 27.0% above average in runs, 30.6% above average in HR’s, 12.5% above average in 3B.
2) SunTrust Park – 19.4% above average in runs, 33.1% above average in HR’s, 23.1% above average in 2B, 10.1% above average in 3B.
3) Rogers Centre – 46.9% above average in HR’s, 81.4% above average in 3B.
4) Dodger Stadium – 24.1% above average in HR’s.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Ivan Nova, RHP, White Sox – 4.61 xFIP, .400 wOBA vs. LHH, .358 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Antonio Senzatela, RHP, Rockies – 5.17 xFIP, .433 wOBA vs. LHH, 6.12 xFIP in the last 30 days
3) Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates – 12 runs allowed in 7 innings in his first two MLB starts
4) Brett Anderson, LHP, A’s – 5.05 xFIP, .365 wOBA vs. LHH
5) Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Orioles – 5.01 xFIP, .416 wOBA vs. RHH, 5.88 xFIP in the last 30 days
6) Adrian Sampson, RHP, Rangers – 5.00 xFIP, .377 wOBA vs, RHH
7) Anthony Desclafini, RHP, Reds – .401 wOBA vs. LHH
8) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies – .380 wOBA vs. LHH
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Wilson Contreras – Cubs
1B – Matt Adams – Nationals, Anthony Rizzo – Cubs
SS – Jean Segura – Phillies, Nick Ahmed – Diamondbacks
OF – Mike Trout – Angels, Carlos Gonzalez – Cubs, Bryce Harper – Phillies, Jackie Bradley – Red Sox
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Willson Contreras – Cubs
- Mitch Garver – Twins
- Pedro Severino – Orioles
- James McCann – White Sox
- Danny Jansen/Luke Maile – Blue Jays
The Cubs and Contreras (has good BvP as well) should beat up on Nova. Garver has crushed LHP and will be near the top of the order. Severino has been great vs. LHP and same goes for McCann. I don’t love paying up for catching so Jansen/Maile are viable punt options on DK.
- Anthony Rizzo – Cubs
- Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals
- Dan Vogelbach – Mariners
- Matt Olson – A’s
- Justin Bour – Angels
Rizzo has BvP, been hot, Nova has struggled vs. LHH and great numbers vs. RHP. Goldschmidt is underpriced and will get hot in the 2nd half of the season. Vogelbach is almost guaranteed to be in the lineup every day with E5 gone. Olson has a nice mid-tier price against a terrible pitcher. Bour has sucked this season but will turn it around with his massive power.
- Hanser Alberto – Orioles
- Rougned Odor – Rangers
- Cavan Biggio – Blue Jays
- Daniel Descalso/Addison Russell – Cubs
- Chris Taylor – Dodgers (DK)
This position sucks tonight which is amazing for a 15-game slate. Alberto is the only real option that I have interest in. He is cheap on both sites and likely to hit lead-off. Biggio is the hottest 2B but not a fan of L on L. Odor is cheap enough in a decent match-up. The Cubs should beat up on Nova so don’t mind either 2B as a punt option.
- Matt Carpenter – Cardinals
- Asdrubal Cabrera – Rangers
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays
- Matt Chapman – A’s (DK)
- Kris Bryant – Cubs
- Renato Nunez – Orioles (FD)
Carpenter is coming off a 3-hit night and is too cheap on both sites. Cabrera has been great at home and I still believe in Vlad Jr. Chapman is discounted on DK and Bryant is just another Cub that should have some success. Nunez is only available on FD at 3B and is cheap.
- Paul Dejong – Cardinals
- Javier Baez – Cubs
- Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks (FD)
- Francisco Lindor – Indians
- Chris Taylor – Dodgers (FD)
Dejong has been hot lately, good vs. RHP, and good at home. Baez has not been great lately but feasts on bad pitching. Senzatela has been awful vs. LHH and Marte has been hot. Lindor is a bit pricy for my taste but in a decent spot. Taylor is the best punt on FD.
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
- Carlos Gonzalez – Cubs
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
- Joc Pederson – Dodgers
- Juan Soto – Nationals (DK)
- Yordan Alvarez – Astros
- Tommy Pham – Rays
- Nelson Cruz – Twins
- JD Martinez- Red Sox
- Shin-Soo Choo – Rangers
- Khris Davis – A’s (DK)
- Shohei Ohtani – Angels
- David Peralta – Diamondbacks
- Bryan Reynolds – Pirates (FD)
- Dominic Smith – Mets (FD)
- Stephen Piscotty – A’s
- Willie Calhoun – Rangers (FD)
- Justin Upton – Angels (DK)
The prices on both sites varies greatly in the OF so I have listed a bit more plays than normal but labeled those that are site specific. We have guys in good spots but priced a bit too expensive on certain sites. Trout has been hot the last few weeks and faces a pitcher who doesn’t like to pitch around guys which is why he has great BvP against him. Schwarber has been locked in per his manager while Cargo is cheap and has BvP. Bellinger has over a .500 wOBA at home and Pederson has a ton of power based on his current price.