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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Thursday, June 13th
There are 9 games on the main Thursday slate, so we don’t have the usual split slate we have seen over the last few weeks, which is a little disappointing because Thursday afternoons have been very good to us so far this season. This is a slate loaded with big name pitchers for not being a big slate. The cheap pitcher options are not great so you will likely need to spend some money on pitching on this slate. There should be enough value though to build some quality lineups. The weather could be a real issue with plenty of issues on the East Coast to deal with so we will need to monitor those situations.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals are expecting rain through most of the day but it is supposed to lighten as the night goes on. The Nationals are known to cancel games for less weather than they will see in this one so we need to track it.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles will see similar conditions as the game in D.C. will but Baltimore tends to handle things better in most cases than Washington.
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox are expecting rain most of the day but it should clear out enough to get the game played.
- BOS -220
- LAD -190
- NYY -162
- TB -145
- COL -144
Highest Run Expectancy
- COL 6.37
- BOS 5.46
- NYY 5.27
- SD 5.13
- TOR 4.82
Lowest Run Expectancy
- CHC 3.29
- STL 3.43
- TEX 3.54
- KC 4.04
- NYM 4.07
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Matt Boyd, LHP, Tigers ($10,500 FD & $10,700 DK) – The Royals have the 2nd highest K% rate, 25th in ISO and 27th in wOBA over the last week. KC is also 28th in K% rates, 29th in ISO and 30th in wOBA vs. LHH over the last month. Boyd hasn’t had the best success career success against the Royals but he is a different pitcher this season. He threw 7 innings with 9 K’s allowing just 2 ER’s in his early start vs. KC this season.
2) Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies ($7,500 FD & $8,300 DK) – It is always a little concerning using a pitcher in Coors but this slate has warts on just about every pitcher. Gray has been more consistent this season and has two starts vs. the Padres already with 13 K’s over 13 innings allowing 4 ER’s. The Padres are 30th in K% rate, 22nd in ISO and 23rd in wOBA vs. RHP over the last month.
3) J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees ($8,800 FD & $8,700) – It was a terrible start to the season for Happ but things have been much better as of late. Over the last 3 starts, he has thrown 18 innings with 19 K’s allowing just 5 total ER’s. Happ is the best option if you want to pay down with Gray on Draftkings to get more bats.
4) Jacob Degrom, RHP, Mets ($10,200 FD & $10,400 DK) – He has the best xFIP, 2nd highest K% rate and highest swinging strike rate of all the pitchers on this slate. The Cardinals are 22nd in K% rate, 27th in ISO and 28th in wOBA vs. RHP over the last month and their lineup features mostly RHH which Degrom excels against.
5) David Price, LHP, Red Sox ($9,800 FD & $9,700 DK) – The PvB numbers say to avoid Price as the Rangers have hit him well in his career. The numbers this year for Texas say so otherwise. Price has the 2nd best xFIP, 3rd highest K% rate and 3rd highest swinging strike rate. The Rangers are 23rd in K% rate, 21st in ISO and 21st in wOBA vs. LHH over the last month. The lineup the Rangers throw out will play a big factor in whether you can use him. The Rangers have used some rather LHH heavy lineups against LHP at times which would set-up greatly for Price.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 44.9% above average in runs scored, 31.5% above average in HR’s, 88% 3B’s above average
2) Camden Yards – 14.4% above average in runs, 33.7% above average in HR’s, 32.8% above average in 3B’s
3) Guaranteed Rate – 14.3% above average in runs, 35.2% above average in HR’s
4) Dodgers Stadium – 22.8% above average in HR’s
**** Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals will be played in Omaha. It has standard dimensions compared to most parks. It should be noted that since the College World Series started playing there 3 yrs. ago, the scoring has been down dramatically which leads me to the think the ball doesn’t carry very well.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Ivan Nova, RHP, Pirates – 4.63 xFIP, .406 wOBA vs. LHH, .357 wOBA, 4.77 xFIP in the last 30 days, 1.63 HR/9
2) Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Orioles – .382 wOBA vs. RHH, 5.39 xFIP in the last 30 days, 1.65 HR/9
3) Homer Bailey, RHP, Royals – .356 wOBA vs. RHH, 5.32 xFIP in the last 30 days
4) Jon Lester, LHP, Cubs – 5.38 xFIP in the last 30 days
5) JA Happ, LHP, Yankees – 2.05 HR/9
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
1B – Anthony Rizzo – Cubs, Trey Mancini – Orioles
SS – Timmy Anderson – White Sox, Elvis Andrus – Rangers
OF – Wil Myers – Padres, Hunter Renfroe – Padres, Whit Merrifield – Royals, Hunter Pence – Rangers
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Chance Sisco – Orioles
- James McCann – White Sox
- Austin Hedges – Padres
- Danny Jansen/Luke Maile – Blue Jays
The catcher with the most power vs. what likely worst pitcher on the slate is Sanchez but he is expensive. Sisco has been hitting clean-up since his promotion has shown more power this season. McCann has hit LHP very well and is likely going to be in the middle of the order as well. Hedges gives you cheap power in Coors Field. The Blue Jays combo is dirt cheap vs. a terrible pitching staff.
- Rowdy Tellez – Blue Jays
- Miguel Cabrera – Tigers
- Trey Mancini – Orioles
- Luke Voit – Yankees
- Justin Smoak – Blue Jays
Tellez had been slumping but the time off did him well last night with a HR and just missing another one. This position isn’t great so Cabrera gives you a solid option. Mancini continues to hit well in his career year. Voit has been on base machine but it not cheap. Smoak faces a pitcher who has struggled vs. LHH.
- Cavan Biggio – Blue Jays
- Kike Hernandez – Dodgers
- Gleyber Torres – Yankees
- Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks (DK)
- Ryan McMahon – Rockies
Biggio may have inherited the lead-off spot which is good for a guy who has been great at getting on-base this season (not as interested if not leading off). Kike vs. a LHP is solid and Lester has been struggling lately. You can pay up for the last couple of guys on the list if you have the money since they do have good matchups.
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies (Q)
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays
- David Freese – Dodgers (Q)
- Justin Turner – Dodgers
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox
- Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks
Arenado is questionable after leaving with an injury yesterday but is always great at home vs. a LHP if he makes the lineup. Guerrero looked good last night driving the ball the other way. Freese is also questionable but hits LHP well but so does Turner. Devers and Escobar both solid options but expensive.
- Trevor Story – Rockies
- Elvis Andrus – Rangers
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
- Didi Gregorius – Yankees
- Fernando Tatis – Padres
- Tim Anderson – White Sox
This is a pay up position on this slate. Story faces a pitcher how has given up 2 HR’s in each of his last 3 starts. Andrus has owned Price and Bogaerts is great at home. Didi gives you a little cheaper option, Tatis has been great in the lead-off spot and Anderson has good BvP along with the cheapest on this list on DK.
- JD Martinez – Red Sox
- Hunter Renfroe – Padres
- David Peralta – Diamondbacks
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Chris Taylor – Dodgers
- Tommy Pham – Rays
- Ian Desmond – Rockies
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- Whit Merrifield – Royals
- Blue Jays OF
- Anthony Santander – Orioles
- Wil Myers – Padres
- Josh Naylor – Padres
Martinez is an elite hitter who should be a at least $500 more on each site. Renfroe has 3 HR’s in 6 career AB’s vs. Gray. Peralta been solid vs. RHP and on the road this season in a good match-up. Trout is on a heater just need to hope he gets pitched too. Taylor is a value option who should see regular playing time with the injury to Seager. You can find solid priced options in the Blue Jays OF if you need some cheaper options. The other OF options in Coors are definitely worth a look.