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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
Tuesday, May 7th
We have 13 games on the main slate for Tuesday including a game at Coors Field with potential weather issues. The Giants are not priced up like most opponents have been as of late so they are very much in play. We have several stud pitchers on the mound but some of them do find themselves in tough spots. We also have some awful pitchers that we can target as well. The weather in Midwest should be dry enough to play games but keep an eye on them just in case.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies will have a chance for storms during most of the game and cooler temperatures. The weather in the Denver area can be sporadic and hard to predict.
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers will be playing with the roof closed so a better hitting environment.
As of this writing, there are no lines available for ARI/TB, BOS/BAL, ATL/LAD, or MIA/CHC.
- HOU -220
- CHC -170
- MIN -140
- NYM -135
- PIT -135
- LAA -135
Highest Run Expectancy
- HOU – 5.46
- COL – 5.31
- SF – 5.19
- LAA – 4.78
- PIT – 4.6
Lowest Run Expectancy
- KC – 3.54
- TEX – 3.91
- WAS – 3.92
- TOR – 3.95
- NYM – 3.96
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Jon Lester, LHP, Cubs ($9,000 DK & $8,500 FD)– The Marlins don’t strike out much but lack any power or any real dangerous bats. Miami is last in ISO and 29th in wOBA over the last week. They are also 28th in ISO and 29th in wOBA vs. LHP. The weather is also going to be very good for pitching with the wind blowing in and temps around 50 degrees.
2) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets ($10,100 DK & $10,400 FD) – He is coming of a complete game shutout in his last outing. The Padres do have some power but that is the only way they score runs. They have the highest K% rate and 24th in wOBA vs. RHP. San Diego also have a heavy RHH lineup which only helps Syndergaard.
3) Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins ($10,400 DK & $10,700 FD) – On the road I don’t trust Berrios as much but the match-up appears great. The Blue Jays are 26th in K% rate, 25th in ISO and 27th in wOBA over the last week. They are 29th in K% rate, 21st in ISO and 26th in WOBA vs. RHP. Berrios has gone at least 6 innings in every start this season which is rare these days.
4) Griffin Canning, RHP, Angels ($8,500 DK & $6,700 FD) – One of the highest ranked prospects for the Angels had a strong outing until the 5th innings in his MLB debut where he as yanked early. The nerves should be better the 2nd time out against a weak Tigers lineup. Detroit is 27th in K% rate, 29th in ISO and 25th in wOBA vs. RHP. The Draftkings price is too high but very much in play in FanDuel.
5) Colin McHugh, RHP, Astros ($8,200 DK & $8,600 FD) – The run support should be there against what can be an annoying Royals lineup that is middle of the road in most categories. Kansas City has hit decently but the sustainability of that is not there. McHugh has been much better at home this season where he is averaging 23 DK and 40.3 FD points per game. He makes for a solid SP2 on DK and don’t see much lower on that site that I can trust.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 46.5% above average in runs scored, 19.1% above average in HR, 216% above average in 3B.
2) Camden Yards – 35.8% above average in runs scored, 60.3% above average in HR, 10.6% above average in 2B & 52.0% above average in 3B.
3) Miller Park –14.7% above average in runs scored, 50.0% above average in HR & 225% above average in 3B.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Freddy Peralta, RHP, Brewers – .370 wOBA, 1.81 HR/9 vs. LHH since last season & 5.53 xFIP, .357 wOBA vs. LHH, 2.53 HR/9 vs. LHH, .438 wOBA vs. RHH, 2.37 HR/9 vs. RHH this season
2) Mike Fiers, RHP, A’s – 4.65 xFIP, 1.63 HR/9 vs. LHH, 1.82 HR/8 vs. RHH since last season & 5.33 xFIP, .411 wOBA vs. LHH, 2.22 HR/9 vs. LHH, 1.74 HR/9 vs. RHH this season
3) Adrian Sampson, RHP, Rangers – 5.09 xFIP, 2.36 HR/9 vs. RHH since last season & 5.27 xFIP, .403 wOBA vs. RHH, 2.04 HR/9 vs. RHH this season
4) David Hess, RHP, Orioles – 5.55 xFIP, 2.49 HR/9 vs. LHH, 1.57 HR/9 vs. RHH since last season & 5.77 xFIP, 2.25 HR/9 vs. LHH, 2.45 HR/9 vs. RHH this season
5) Daniel Norris, LHP, Tigers – .378 wOBA vs. LHH, 2.84 HR/9 vs. LHH since last season & 4.73 xFIP, .383 wOBA vs. LHH, 4.91 HR/9 vs. LHH, .364 wOBA vs, RHH this season
6) Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds – .411 wOBA, 2.52 HR/9 vs. LHH since last season & .387 wOBA, 2.38 HR/9 vs. LHH this season
7) Dakota Hudson, RHP, Cardinals – .444 wOBA, 2.63 HR/9 vs. LHH since last season & .509 wOBA, 4.73 HR/9 vs. LHH this season
8) Cal Quantrill, RHP, Padres – 1.77 WHIP vs. LHH since last season in the minors.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Yasmani Grandal – Brewers
1B – Mark Reynolds – Rockies
2B – Joe Panik – Giants, Jose Altuve – Astros
3B – Martin Prado – Marlins
OF – George Springer – Astros, JD Martinez – Red Sox, Andrew Benintendi – Red Sox
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Mitch Garver – Twins
- Kurt Suzuki – Nationals
- Buster Posey – Giants
- Stephen Vogt – Giants
- Kevan Smith – Angels
Both Garver and Suzuki find themselves in great spots vs. bad pitchers. Posey is a .375 career hitter in Coors Field and Vogt can hit RHP well when given the AB’s. Smith is the value option who hits LHP well and faces a bad pitcher in Norris.
- Brandon Belt – Giants
- Josh Bell – Pirates
- Joey Votto – Reds
- Mitch Moreland – Red Sox
- Travis White – Astros
- Matt Olson – A’s
Belt is a .319 career hitter in Coors and .306 hitter vs. ground ball pitchers like Senzatela. Bell has a 1.083 OPS at home this season and has finally showed his power potential. Votto is just 3500 on DK against a pitcher who gives up a ton of HR’s. Olson returns from the DL against Mahle who is awful vs. LHH.
- Joe Panik – Giants
- Jose Altuve – Astros
- Robinson Cano – Mets
- Jonathan Schoop – Orioles
- Brandon Lowe – Rays
- Michael Chavis – Red Sox
Panik hits .407 at Coors. Altuve is too cheap on DK and faces an LHP who we know he has always been good against. Cano has a great split advantage. Schoop, Lowe and Chavis all provide some power potential.
- Howie Kendrick – Nationals
- Evan Longoria – Giants
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox
- Jake Noll – Nationals (1B/3B on DK)
- Alex Bregman – Astros
None of these guys truly jump off the page. They are all solid options with the Nationals getting a chance to knock around Peralta. Longoria is questionable but has been hitting lately as he heads to Coors. Arenado at home vs. LHP is usually automatic but does not great success vs. Bumgarner.
- Jorge Polanco – Twins
- Elvis Andrus – Rangers
- Carlos Correa – Astros
- Trevor Story – Rockies
- Brandon Crawford – Giants
Polanco has taken the next step with his hitting this year. Andrus is one of the few Rangers hitting better on the road than at home. Correa and the Astros should beat up on Duffy. Crawford like many Giants isn’t priced up like most visiting players to Coors.
- Red Sox OF (Betts/Benintendi/Martinez)
- Tommy Pham – Rays
- Bryce Harper – Nationals
- George Springer – Astros
- National OF – (Eaton/Robles/Taylor)
- Stevie Wilkerson – Orioles (DK)
- Michael Conforto – Mets
- Jeff McNeil – Mets
- Twins OF (Rosario, Cruz, Kepler)
- Reds OF (Dietrich, Senzel, Winker, Puig)
- Steven Duggar – Giants
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Odubel Herrera – Phillies
- Nick Williams – Phillies
- Robbie Grossman – A’s
The Outfield is easily the most loaded position on the slate. All of the Boston bats look to rebound after an awful Monday. Pham is red hot and faces a very shaky pitching staff. Harper and his lower ranked OF mates look to take advantage of Hudson who sucks vs. LHH. The Nationals should be able to beat up Peralta. Wilkerson still to cheap on DK. The Reds OF can provide some cheaper prices vs. a pitcher who has HR problems. You will likely get plenty of low ownership on some of these OF’s with so many too choose from in good spots.