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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- Going Deep – Breaking down what pitchers, hitters and ballparks to target and avoid when hunting for the long ball.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
SATURDAY, MAY 4th
It was a crazy Friday night with some pitchers getting destroyed, while others came through with some great performances. We saw Musgrove implode, Paxton get hurt, Gray fall apart with a big lead and Gausman get tossed. Bieber was solid, while Sale, Glasnow and Kikuchi dominated with double-digit K performances. It was also an interesting night in that, outside of Arenado and Story, we saw very little ownership on Coors Field where 19 runs were scored. The Diamondbacks appeared to be overpriced, but they destroyed the Rockies pitching for 4 HRs.
We have a 10-game main slate for Saturday that has plenty of hitting to choose from. The key will be surviving the pitching. None of these guys stand out as a safe option. There are some guys who can throw up double-digit Ks, but just about every one of them can get pounded for 5+ runs. The opposing lineups and umpire data will hopefully lead to more clear choices in the pitching department. Be sure to check out the livestream at 4 EST, as Jeff and I will be breaking down the slate.
Oakland A’s @ Pittsburgh Pirates could see some light rain around game time, but it doesn’t appear to cause any problems.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
No Line on TB/BAL
- Boston Red Sox -166
- Texas Rangers -135
- Houston Astros -133
- Cincinnati Reds -130
- Colorado Rockies -128
Highest Run Expectancy
- Colorado Rockies 5.60
- Houston Astros 5.01
- Arizona Diamondbacks 4.90
- Cincinnati Reds 4.81
- Boston Red Sox 4.77
Lowest Run Expectancy
- San Diego Padres 3.60
- Oakland A’s 3.70
- Chicago White Sox 3.73
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.75
- Washington Nationals 3.80
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Red Sox ($8,500 FD & $9,200 DK) – The strikeouts have been there for Rodriguez, but he can be inconsistent and tends to have one rough inning per game. The White Sox have some dangerous bats, but Tim Anderson has struggled lately and starting to come back to reality. Chris Sale was able to burn through Chicago last night. The bottom half of their lineup vs. LHP is bad. Rodriguez has a 13.5% swinging strike rate but could be scared away if the umpire has a tight strike zone. I do prefer the price on FD over DK.
2) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies ($9,200 FD & $8,600 FD) – This is another pitcher I don’t normally feel comfortable using very often. The Nationals are without Anthony Rendon, and Juan Soto is banged up so could be out again. Washington is 26th in K% rate, 23rd in ISO and 27th in wOBA over the last week. They are also 25th in K% rate vs. RHP. The strikeouts can disappear for Arrieta without warning so that is a concern. I prefer the price on DK over FD.
3) Lance Lynn, RHP, Rangers ($7,300 FD & $7,300 DK) – It is sad Lynn was almost my #1 option and still might be on this slate. He has four good-to-decent starts and two disgusting ones. The promotion of Vlad Guerrero Jr. hasn’t done much to spark the Toronto offense just yet. They are 30th in K% rate, 20th in ISO, 26th in wOBA vs. RHP and managed just one unearned run last night. Lynn is coming off his best start of the season so would love anything close to that.
4) Chris Bassitt, RHP, A’s ($9,500 FD & $8,000 DK) – It has only been two starts, but Bassist has pitched the best of any pitcher on the slate. He has allowed just 1 ER in 12 innings with 16 Ks. It is important to know that it has been against two strikeout prone opponents. The Pirates are a lineup that doesn’t have one of their best hitters in Corey Dickerson, and Gregory Polanco is not healthy now. The price is better on DK than FD.
5) Yonny Chirinos, RHP, Rays ($7,600 FD & $6,900 KD) – I don’t find usually giving much thought to using the Rays “primary” pitcher. There is usually limited upside with a guy like Chirinos, but the one good thing is, if they get an early lead, the win is usually easy to obtain. He has gone at least five innings in six of his outings this season, including five shutout innings vs. this same team.
Others I considered:
- Rich Hill, LHP, Dodgers ($9,400 FD & $9,600 DK)
- Patrick Corbin, LHP, Nationals ($9,100 FD & $10,400 DK)
- Joey Lucchesi, LHP, Padres ($7,700 FD & $8,300 DK)
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 45.2% above average in runs scored, 14.1% above average in HR, 217.7% above average in 3Bs.
2) Camden Yards – 47.9% above average in runs scored, 79.0% above average in HR, 13.7% above average in 2Bs and 46.2% above average in 3Bs.
3) Globe Life Park – 13.2% above average in runs scored, 17.4% above average in HR, 650% (not a misprint) above average in 3Bs.
4) Miller Park – 17.0% above average in runs scored, 60.6% above average in HR, 76.5% above average in 3Bs.
5) Citizens Bank Ballpark –12.3% above average in runs scored, 28.4% above average in HR.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles – 2.25 HR/9, .393 wOBA vs. LHH since last season & .424 wOBA vs. RHH 5.09 xFIP this season.
2) Trevor Cahill, RHP, Angels – .498 wOBA vs. LHH. 5.01 xFIP this season.
3) Tanner Roark, RHP, Reds – .356 wOBA vs. LHH since last season & .522 wOBA vs. LHH. 5.12 xFIP this season.
4) Clay Buchholz, RHP, Blue Jays – 5.10 xFIP this season.
5) Lance Lynn, RHP, Rangers – .352 wOBA vs. LHH since last season & .372 wOBA vs. RHH this season.
6) Joey Lucchesi, LHP, Padres – .372 wOBA vs. RHH this season.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
C – James McCann – White Sox, Jonathan Lucroy – Angels, Buster Posey – Giants, Gary Sanchez – Yankees
1B – Brandon Belt – Giants
OF – Kevin Kiermaier – Rays, Ketel Marte -Diamondbacks, Hunter Renfroe – Padres, Bryce Harper – Phillies, George Springer – Astros, Juan Lagares – Mets, Nelson Cruz – Twins
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- James McCann – White Sox
- Wilson Ramos – Mets
- Mike Zunino – Rays
- Buster Posey – Giants
- Robinson Chirinos – Astros
- Stephen Vogt – Giants
McCann has crushed LHP this season, good BvP and will likely be hitting clean-up. Ramos has been quiet this season but too good of a hitter to not improve and faces his former teammate. Bundy is going to give up 2+ HRs, just a matter of which Rays will hit them.
- Nate Lowe – Rays
- Pete Alonso – Mets
- Ji-Man Choi – Rays
- Brandon Belt – Giants
- Daniel Murphy – Rockies
There are some real solid cheap options at 1B. Bundy has HR issues vs. LHH in particular. It is close between Lowe and Choi. Alonso has crushed LHP and would pay up for him if I have the money but probably spending up elsewhere. Belt will be low owned but has several things going his way in his match-up. Murphy hopes to return to the lineup after sitting out last two games.
- Brandon Lowe – Rays
- Rougned Odor – Rangers
- Kike Hernandez – Dodgers
- Ian Kinsler – Padres
- Wilmer Flores – Diamondbacks
- Ryan McMahon – Rockies
Another Rays hitter in a good spot. There isn’t much good value at 2B. Odor is not a good hitter, as he just swings for the fences, but he has power. Kinsler has homered last two games, will likely be leading off and gives you real cheap value on DK. Flores and McMahon both give you cheaper exposure at Coors than most other players that will be in the lineup.
- Alex Bregman – Astros
- Asdrubal Cabrera – Rangers
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies
- JD Davis – Mets
- Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks
Bregman is my #1 on DK, while Cabrera is #1 on FD. Bregman and the Astros should pound Cahill. Cabrera has hit well at home. Davis is a punt option with power if he makes the lineup. Escobar is in a great spot, but that price is really tough to fit when compared to other guys in the same range.
- Carlos Correa – Astros
- Andrelton Simmons – Angels
- Trevor Story – Rockies
- Jean Segura – Phillies
- Willy Adames – Rays
Cahill has been one of the worst pitchers in the league so far this season. Simmons is a solid mid-tier priced option who hits in the middle of the order. Story owns the Dbacks, and it is Coors. Segura has been red hot since returning from injury. Adames is near minimum price on FD and cheapish on DK.
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
- J.D. Martinez – Red Sox
- David Dahl – Rockies
- Joey Gallo – Rangers (Q)
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- George Springer – Astros
- Derek Dietrich – Reds (FD)
- Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks
- Adam Jones – Diamondbacks
- Jesse Winker – Reds
- Chris Taylor – Dodgers
- Franmil Reyes – Padres
- Hunter Renfroe – Padres
- Steve Pearce – Red Sox
- Steve Wilkerson – Orioles (DK)
- Keon Broxton – Mets
I want to pay up for OFs on this slate. Martinez is underpriced on DK. Gallo may have tweaked something last night on his last AB so keep an eye on his status. LHH Rockies OF is in a good spot. The back of this OF list is loaded up with some value options, assuming you can’t pay up for 3 OFs.
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