For the time being, we will post our DFS MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. We will update it with links to each piece when it is LIVE so check back throughout the day:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
Early Bird – Scott Bondar breaks down the early slate in DFS MLB today.
Bullpen Coach – Full breakdown of everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
Hitting Coach – A deep dive about the top hitters & fades for today’s MLB slate.
Pitching Coach – In-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers
DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
MLB Now Livestream – Daily video show breaking down the players, matchups & slate.
MLB Summary – A quick summary of the articles, shows & coaching sessions from today.
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB Chat Room
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 11am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
Also Be Sure To Bookmark:
This breakdown will cover the 7 games on the main slate that has several pitching options to choose from. In cash games, we are likely to see ownership centered on 3 maybe 4 teams for the hitters. The cheap options at pitcher are not great on this slate so you will need to decide if the risk is worth the reward if you want to pay down. I think we can get by with paying up a little bit in the pitching department on this slate with solid mid-tier options with the hitters.
The day slate consists of 3 games that will be covered in the Early Bird article so be sure to check that out if you are playing the afternoon games. Let’s hope we can avoid the Kevin Gausman’s of the world for the rest of the season. The weather could be an issue in several spots so we will need to track those as we get close to roster lock.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees will have storms most the evening. We will see if they find a window to play this game.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh will also have storms to deal with it. It does appear that they may clear out but a delayed start is possible.
Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox will have the same old story. The Chicago weather has been awful the entire month of May. The storm coverage isn’t expected to be too widespread but a chance of a delay is a real possibility.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
1. Los Angeles Dodgers -260
2. Cleveland Indians -180
3. Boston Red Sox -157
4. Texas Rangers -140
5. Tampa Bay Rays -130
Highest Run Expectancy
1. Texas Rangers 5.58
2. Cleveland Indians 5.10
3. Los Angeles Dodgers 5.00
4. Boston Red Sox 4.68
5. Seattle Mariners 4.47
Lowest Run Expectancy
1. New York Mets 3.00
2. Minnesota Twins 3.68
3. New York Mets 3.82
4. Chicago White Sox 3.90
5. Los Angeles Angels 4.03
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Tyler Anderson||- - -||152.10||4.14||0.278||4.26||4.53||4.49||34.60||22.30||43.10||68.30%||44.30%||19.60||11.50%||53.20%||5.30||78.30%||36.70%||74.60||14.90%||56.20%||28.90%||1.42||35.30%||90.80||9.60|
|Spencer Howard||- - -||42.00||6.86||0.330||4.14||4.93|
|Jon Lester||- - -||125.10||4.67||0.297||5.40||5.12|
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Indians ($9,500 DK & $10,200 FD) – The White Sox are 28th in K% Rate, 30th in ISO and 25th in wOBA over the last 7 games. They are also 26th in K% Rate, 25th in ISO, and 19th in wOBA at home along with 30th in K% rate, 28th in ISO and 28th in wOBA vs. RHP in May. Carrasco has the 2nd best xFIP, 3rd best K% rate and 2nd best swinging strike rate of all pitcher on this slate. He has allowed just a .192/.223/.310 vs. current White Sox hitters.
2) Mike Minor, LHP, Rangers ($10,300 DK & $9,200 FD) – A better play on FD. The Royals are 29th in wOBA and 25th in K% Rate, 14th in ISO and 18th in wOBA on the road. They are also 30th in ISO and 26th in wOBA on the road in the month of May. Minor has allowed more than 3 ER’s in 1 start this season and has allowed 2 ER or less in 9 of his 11 starts.
3) Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox ($10,800 DK & $11,200 FD) – The Yankees are 30th in wOBA, 28th in ISO and 26th in K% rate vs. LHP in the month of May. Sale has the highest K% rate and highest swinging strike rate on the slate. He is averaging 10.6 K’s per game (15.0 K/9) over his last 7 starts. Sale has a 34.4% K rate vs. current Yankees hitters.
4) Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers ($9,000 DK & $9,000 FD) – The Rays are 29th in K% rate at home this season. They are 30th in K% rate, 22nd in ISO and 23rd in wOBA vs. LHP in the month of May. Tampa is also 28th vs. the cutter this season which is Perez’s new pitch that has led to his drastic improvement.
5) Joe Musgrove, RHP, Pirates ($6,000 DK & $7,500 FD)– The best value option on the board but not exactly a stable choice. It has been an up and down season for Musgrove this season. The Brewers have been great at home but middle of the pack when on the road and facing RHP. The K % rate is 24th when they are on the road in the month of May. I would prefer to pay down on pitching when we can on FanDuel but Musgrove isn’t cheap enough. The Draftkings price is a cheap enough to take a chance.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Guaranteed Rate Field – 41.8% above average in HR’s, 13.9% above average in runs scored
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Manny Banuelos, LHP, White Sox – 5.02 xFIP, .413 wOBA vs. LHH, .420 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Jason Vargas, LHP, Mets – 5.79 xFIP, .376 wOBA vs. LHH, .346 wOBA vs. RHH
3) J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees – 4.71 xFIP, .360 wOBA vs. RHH, 13 HR’s in 44 2/3 vs. RHH
4) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Indians – allowed 13 HR’s in 58 2/3 innings
(click on link above)
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
HOT STREAKS (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
BATTER VS. PITCHER
1B – Steve Pearce – Red Sox, Yonder Alonso – White Sox
2B – Adam Frazier – Pirates
3B – David Freese – Dodgers
OF – Starling Marte – Pirates, Guillermo Heredia – Rays
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Christian Vazquez – Red Sox
2) Yasmani Grandal – Brewers
3) Roberto Perez – Indians
4) Kevin Plawecki – Indians
5) Travis D’arnaud – Rays
Vazquez has hit LHP well this season as well some success vs. Happ. Grandal is the most expensive at the position but the has the most power. Perez and Plawecki is all about picking on Banuelos. D’arnaud is the last option if you just want to punt the position.
1) Josh Bell – Pirates
2) Steve Pearce – Red sox
3) Carlos Santana – Indians
4) Max Muncy – Dodgers
Bell has been just as good as Yelich this season for those paying attention. Pearce has great history in Yankees Stadium and against Happ. Santana had a big game yesterday and faces a terrible pitcher. Muncy has hit LHP well and Vargas has struggled vs. LHH.
1) Kike Hernandez – Dodgers
2) Adam Frazier – Pirates
3) Michael Chavis – Red Sox
4) Jason Kipnis – Indians
There are plenty of choices on DK with some many guys with multi-position eligibility. Kike will likely be back in the lead-off spot. Frazier has a solid match-up and good BvP. Chavis has shown nice power vs. LHP.
1) Jose Ramirez – Indians
2) Asdrúbal Cabrera – Rangers
3) David Freese – Dodgers
4) Justin Turner – Dodgers
5) Eduardo Nunez – Red Sox
This is always a good position with many quality choices but tonight might be even better because the bats are more affordable than normal. Ramirez gets the nod as a road player who gets the guarantee of a possible 9th inning AB.
1) Francisco Lindor – Indians
2) Xander Bogarts – Red Sox
3) Danny Santana – Rangers
4) Elvis Andrus – Rangers
5) Tim Beckham – Mariners
Both of top options are in good spots but would like them even more if at home because of their numbers are that better. Santana is eligible on FD at SS but 2B/OF on DK. Elvis just continues to hit and Beckham has been good vs. LHP.
1) JD Martinez – Red Sox
2) Joey Gallo – Rangers (Q)
3) Shin Soo-Choo – Rangers
4) Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
5) Jordan Luplow – Indians
6) Starling Marte – Pirates
7) Gregory Polanco – Prates
8) Mike Trout – Angels (Q)
9) Whit Merrifield – Royals
10) Bryan Reynolds – Pirates
11) Chris Taylor – Dodgers
12) Zack Granite – Rangers
13) Steve Pearce – Red Sox (DK)
JD vs. LHP is always going to be towards the top of my list. Gallo at home has been great but is questionable with a wrist injury. Choo along with the other LHH Rangers hitters will try to take advantage of Junis’s issues. Luplow has been great vs. LHP. The back of the end rankings should provide some value.