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German Marquez is also viable accidently left him off. Leaning using Quintana on FanDuel.
Added Value plays :
FD – Jonathan Davis – Jays, Phillips Ervin – Reds is my top one on FD
DK – Marwin Gonzalez – Twins, Jonathan Davis – Jays
For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Tuesday, May 21st
It was a nice Monday led by Mike Minor and Ronald Acuna who came up big. It is interesting study in using guys who were probably ignored because of the ballparks they played in. Arlington Park is considered a hitter’s paradise but Minor quietly is becoming an elite pitcher so was lightly owned. Acuna was able to deliver in what is considered a pitcher friendly park. This is a gentle reminder that you can’t discount guys simply because of the ballparks they are playing in.
This is quite a slate we have on Tuesday with 14 games. The value is not easy to find on this slate when it comes to the hitting department. We have a loaded pitching slate in great matchups. My research has found up to 10 pitchers that could be solid options. The weather shouldn’t cause an issue so we have 14 games to choose from. I will provide updates on value plays as lineups come out as they will be needed to build lineups. Value plays will be the key to quality lineups on this slate with nothing sticking out before lineups are out.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs will be cold, raw and windy night.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers should be played under a closed roof with the cold weather in the area.
Currently no odds on PHI/CHC, LAD/TB, or SEA/TEX
- Houston Astros: -335
- New York Yankees: -200
- St. Louis Cardinals -175
- Boston Red Sox -140
- Milwaukee Brewers -135
Highest Run Expectancy
- New York Yankees 5.64
- Houston Astros 5.26
- Los Angeles Angels 5.09
- St Louis Cardinals 5.05
- Minnesota Twins 4.91
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Chicago White Sox 2.74
- Arizona Diamondbacks 3.40
- San Diego Padres 3.60
- Washington Nationals 3.63
- Miami Marlins 3.65
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Tyler Anderson||- - -||152.10||4.14||0.278||4.26||4.53||4.49||34.60||22.30||43.10||68.30%||44.30%||19.60||11.50%||53.20%||5.30||78.30%||36.70%||74.60||14.90%||56.20%||28.90%||1.42||35.30%||90.80||9.60|
|Spencer Howard||- - -||42.00||6.86||0.330||4.14||4.93|
1) Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers ($9,800 FD & $9,800 DK) – The Rays have the highest K% rate, 21st in ISO and 22nd in wOBA vs. LHP this season. They are 30th in K% rate at home which only helps being in a pitcher’s park. Kershaw has gone at least 6 innings in each of his starts this season so is a great bet to get a quality start with some added strikeouts int his match-up.
2) Spencer Turnbull, RHP, Tigers ($8,600 FD & $7,800 DK) – This feels like a surprising ranking even to me. Turnbull hasn’t given up more than 3 ER’s in any start this season. The Marlins are 29th in K% rate, 30th in ISO and 30th in wOBA vs. RHP. They are also last in ISO and wOBA on the road this season which is proof that the park they play in isn’t the problem. The price on Draftkings is the preferred play.
3) Eduardo Rodriquez, LHP, Red Sox ($8,900 FD & $8,900 DK) – The last inning of his previous start is the only real bump in the resume in his last 3 starts. Before that inning, Rodriquez has pitched 20 innings allowing just 1 run with 21 K’s. The Blue Jays are 29th in ISO and 29th in wOBA vs. LHP. Despite hitting in what is considered a hitter friendly environment, Toronto is also 29th in ISO at home.
4) Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks ($11,000 FD & 10,200 DK) – He has enjoyed pitching is San Diego allowing just a .196 avg. Greinke has also allowed just a .216 vs. current Padres hitters. San Diego has 30th in K% rate vs. RHP and 29th in K% rate at home. The price is does not come cheap.
5) Jose Quintana, LHP, Cubs ($7,700 FD & $7,900 DK) – He has not been great in his last 4 starts after 3 really good ones but all of those matchups were tough. The Phillies have struggled on the road this season as they are 29th in ISO and 20th in wOBA. The weather conditions should be ideal for pitching on a cool damp night.
6) Caleb Smith, LHP, Marlins ($10,100 DK & $10,400 FD) – The youngster has been very consistent this season with at least 8 K’s in his last 4 starts and not allowing more than 3 ER’s in any start this season. The Tigers have one of the weakest offenses in the league that is has struggled over the last week ranking 25th in K% rate, 26th in ISO and 30th in wOBA.
Justin Verlander, Astros ($12,000 FD & $11,300 DK) – The most expensive and biggest favorite on the board. The White Sox have plenty of experience vs. Verlander who has shut them down. There are just too many bats for me to pay up for him but don’t blame those who do.
Domingo German, RHP, Yankees ($10,000 FD & $9,900 DK) – It has been a great start to the season for German who is 8-1 and faces a struggling Orioles offense. Not bad choice but prefer others at a similar price point.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds ($6,700 FD & $6,700 DK) – The match-up is tough but Gray has the potential for a solid outing. The Brewers are dangerous but are 25th in K% rate vs. RHP.
Michael Pineda, RHP, Twins ($7,300 FD & $6,500 DK) – This is late addition with the injuries to Andrelton Simmons and Shohei Ohtani on Monday. He didn’t jump off the page in my research but a slap hitting lineup could get even worse without their 3 and 4 hitters.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Camden Yards – 21.7% above average in runs scored, 46.1% above average in HR’s, 60.0% above average in 3B.
2) Tigers Stadium – 21.3% above average in runs scored, 18% above average in HR’s, 315% above average in 3B’s.
2) Angel Stadium –19.8% above average in runs scored, 46.2% above average in HR’s.
3) Citizens Bank Ballpark – 17.9% above average in runs scored, 35.5% above average in HR’s, 28.6% above average in 3B.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Tommy Milone, LHP, Mariners – 22 HR’s allowed in 74 2/3 MLB innings the last two seasons
2) Dylan Covey, RHP, White Sox – 7.31 xFIP, .401 wOBA vs. LHH
3) David Hess, RHP, Orioles – 5.70 xFIP, .390 wOBA vs. RHH
4) Trevor Cahill, RHP, Angels – 5.09 xFIP, .448 wOBA vs. LHH
5) Michael Wacha, RHP, Cardinals – 4.96 xFIP, .379 wOBA vs. RHH
6) Michael Pineda, RHP, Twins – .479 xFIP, .388 wOBA vs. RHH
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|6||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||148||642||46||119||105||4||12.6||16.00||0.296||0.324||0.321||0.411||0.617||0.429||173|
|8||Frank Schwindel||- - -||52||204||14||33||40||1||6.4||16.20||0.298||0.354||0.340||0.382||0.639||0.426||168|
|12||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|14||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||118||498||39||95||92||25||11.6||26.90||0.334||0.317||0.283||0.367||0.618||0.407||159|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Buster Posey – Giants, Yadier Molina – Cardinals
1B – Brandon Belt – Giants, Jose Abreu – White Sox, Joey Votto – Reds
2B – Sean Rodriquez – Phillies, Kolten Wong – Cardinals
3B – Kris Bryant – Cubs, Matt Carpenter – Cardinals, Eugenio Suarez – Reds
SS – Paul Dejong – Cardinals, Trea Turner – Nationals
OF – Manuel Margot – Padres, Jorge Soler – Royals, Gerardo Parra – Nationals. Jose Martinez – Cardinals, Adam Eaton – Nationals, Hunter Renfroe – Padres, Jay Bruce – Mariners, Adam Frazier – Pirates, Steve Pearce – Red Sox
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Robinson Chirinos – Rangers
- Yadier Molina – Cardinals
- Jason Castro – Twins
- Buster Posey – Giants
For some reason every catcher on Draftkings is priced up. The best catchers in the league are all in great matchups but don’t come cheap. Posey is the best cheap option as of now. With other premium bats at positions in good spots, we may just try to find a cheap under 2.5k option on DK to punt with.
- Daniel Vogelbach – Mariners
- Luke Voit – Yankees
- Daniel Murphy – Rockies
- Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals
- Yuli Gurriel – Astros
- CJ Cron – Twins
This isn’t any easy position to figure out. We have plenty of good options but nothing that stands out from a price standpoint. They are all pricey with the exception of Daniel Murphy who is most affordable on FD. Vogelbach has been crushing RHP and gets the great ballpark shift in Arlington.
- Ryan McMahon – Rockies
- DJ LeMahieu – Yankees
- Jonathan Schoop – Twins
- Whit Merrifield – Royals
- Brian Dozier – Nationals
This is the weakest position on the slate. McMahon will look to take advantage of Archer’s HR issues with LHH in the past. LeMahieu should be back in the lead-off. Schoop won’t see much ownership but has the power. Dozier is the best value option but no o idea why he was off last night but he appears to be heating up.
- Eugenio Suarez – Reds
- Alex Bregman – Astros
- Matt Carpenter – Cardinals
- Anthony Rendon – Nationals
- Gio Urshela – Yankees
- Asdrubal Cabrera – Rangers
Suarez destroys LHP and Bregman has a great match-up vs. Covey. Carpenter and the Cards have destroyed Bailey almost every time they have faced him. Rendon is the hottest hitting 3B in the league. You should pay up for 3B if you can on this slate.
- Carlos Correa – Astros
- Gleyber Torres – Yankees
- Paul DeJong – Cardinals
- Jorge Polanco – Twins
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
- Nick Ahmed – Diamondbacks
This is another position you will want to pay up for if you can. All of the Top 5 guys are in great spots. Ahmed is the best cheap option available who has been swinging a hot bat. You could consider Corey Seager on Draftkings as well.
- JD Martinez – Red Sox
- Mitch Haniger – Mariners
- Christian Yelich – Brewers
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
- Josh Reddick – Astros
- Jose Martinez – Cardinals
- Phillip Ervin – Reds
- Aaron Hicks – Yankees
- Max Kepler -Twins
- Hunter Pence – Rangers
- Jeff McNeil – Mets
- Ronald Acuna – Braves
- Joey Gallo – Rangers
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
This is a very tricky slate. The OF is loaded with great options from a slightly underprice JD Martinez to Haniger who hits almost .400 in Arlington. Yelich is hitting over .400 at home. Schwarber will likely be very popular if he leads off again and the same goes for Reddick. Jose Martinez is the best hitter whose price never creeps higher. Ervin is minimum price on FD if he makes the lineup. We will need to find at least one punt option in the OF as lineups come out. I just don’t see a standout one outside of Schwarber right now.