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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Added notes for the Early Slate
Murphy, Yelich, Votto and Correa are out, Dominic Smith, Mark Reynolds and Ty France viable options on FD. I don’t think I can do Syndergaard at this point. I need to stick with my belief to avoid pitchers who are struggling. Going to go Berrios on FD and Berrios & Morton DK.
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- All sessions are OFF today because of the split slate. Our MLB NOW Livestream is at 11:00am EST!
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
Thursday, May 2nd
A quick line-up review from last night that resulted In being a mix of above and below on the cash lines in our 50/50’s. This is the lineup we used:
P – Aaron Nola – 32
1B – Rhys Hoskins – 18.7
2B – Ryan McMahon – 12.2
SS – Jean Segura – 9
3B – Jose Ramirez – 3
OF – Hunter Renfroe – 0
OF – Franmil Reyes – 3
OF – Ian Desmond – 9.2
UTIL – Ben Gamel – 13
It has been a good season but still amazed how many times our starting pitcher on FanDuel gets pulled at 5 2/3 innings just short of a quality start. I do have concerns about Nola going forward as he should have been much better vs. an awful Tigers team. He just isn’t the same pitcher right now. The quality start points are always nice to have and would have been helpful last night. The Phillies in our lineup returned decent results considering how little they were able to get to Norris. Somehow Norris was able to shut Philadelphia down but this is a good lesson on how looking at the bullpens is important. The Tigers bullpen is terrible and gave up another 6 runs last night. The Rockies mini-stack were able to reach base and got some points but would have liked more when the team scores 11 runs. It wasn’t a big scoring night so the short coming in this lineup would be the disappointing performances from Ramirez who had been heating up and the Padres OF. There are not nights when a lineup feels great but quite honestly Jeff and I felt like the right combination couldn’t come together. Overall It wasn’t a total loss on the night.
It is time to get into the short slate on Thursday. There are 4 games on the FanDuel early slate and 5 games on the Draftkings slate. We have just 2 games on the night slate which is very unusual and 1 game in the late afternoon. This breakdown has just the early slate covered and be sure to check out the livestream which will be on early tomorrow. I will be taking special notes of who is umpiring for the main slate games as all of the top pitchers’ options are closely grouped together.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets are expecting some afternoon rain which could cause in-game delay or possibly shorten the game.
- New York Mets -170
- Tampa Bay Rays -155
- Atlanta Braves -125
Highest Run Expectancy
- Milwaukee Brewers 4.72
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.64
- Atlanta Braves 4.57
- New York Mets 4.31
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Cincinnati Reds 3.19
- Kansas City Royals 3.86
- San Diego Padres 3.93
- Minnesota Twins 4.05
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Tyler Anderson||- - -||152.10||4.14||0.278||4.26||4.53||4.49||34.60||22.30||43.10||68.30%||44.30%||19.60||11.50%||53.20%||5.30||78.30%||36.70%||74.60||14.90%||56.20%||28.90%||1.42||35.30%||90.80||9.60|
|Spencer Howard||- - -||42.00||6.86||0.330||4.14||4.93|
|Jon Lester||- - -||125.10||4.67||0.297||5.40||5.12|
1) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets ($9,400 DK & $9,000 FD) – There has to be a shutdown performance coming for Syndergaard. He has allowed at least 4 ER’s in 5 of his 6 starts which quite honestly sucks. The analytic numbers show that there is some room for improvement and his velocity is still there. . The xFIP is 3.55, 26.4% K rate and a 12.5% swinging strike rate which are all solid numbers. Of the four pitchers listed, Syndergaard has the best match-up. The Reds are 21st in K% rate, 22nd in ISO and 28th in wOBA vs. RHP this season
2) Charlie Morton, RHP, Rays ($9,000 DK & N/A) – He has the highest K% rate of any starter on the slate and has been the most consistent of the available options on the slate. Morton has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 5 of his 6 starts for a total of 5 ER’s in those games. The Rays have been too consistent this season to get swept by the Royals. The number vs. RHP have been respectable for Kansas City but I don’t see that as sustainable.
3) Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies ($8,000 DK & $8,400 FD) – The most inconsistent career wise of the top choices on the slate. The control disappears for him at times with at least 3 walks in his last 4 starts and big strikeout numbers haven’t been there since his first start. The Brewers do provide the most strikeout potential of all the opponents of our top choices. They are 26th in K% rate vs. RHP and could be without Christian Yelich once again.
4) Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins ($9,900 DK & $10,300 FD) – In most match-ups at home for Berrios, I am all-in but this one scares me a bit. Berrios is averaging 30.3 DK points per home start and has been dominate at home in his career. The Astros though are a difficult match-up for any RHP. The added damage Houston hitters have done in Minnesota in their careers concerns me as well.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Miller Park –16.7% runs scored above average, 66.7% above average in HR’s.
2) SunTrust Park –10.9% above average in HR’s, 44.5% above average in 2B’s.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals, – 4.97 xFIP, .346 wOBA vs. RHH since 2018 & 6.76 xFIP, .422 wOBA vs. RHH this season
2) Freddy Peralta, RHP, Brewers – 4.46 xFIP, .361 wOBA vs. LHH since last season & 5.01 xFIP, .422 wOBA vs. RHH this season
3) Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds – 1.67 HR/9, .416 wOBA vs. LHH since last season & .421 wOBA vs. LHH this season
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|6||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||148||642||46||119||105||4||12.6||16.00||0.296||0.324||0.321||0.411||0.617||0.429||173|
|8||Frank Schwindel||- - -||52||204||14||33||40||1||6.4||16.20||0.298||0.354||0.340||0.382||0.639||0.426||168|
|12||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|14||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||118||498||39||95||92||25||11.6||26.90||0.334||0.317||0.283||0.367||0.618||0.407||159|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Martin Maldonado – Royals
3B – Travis Shaw – Brewers
OF – Christian Yelich – Brewers
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Tyler Flowers – Braves
- Robinson Chirinos – Astros
- Wilson Ramos – Nationals
- Jason Castro – Twins
All of these guys had the night off after a night game so should be in the lineup. Flowers could put up some scary numbers if he was the full-time catcher on what he has done the last few seasons. The other options are solid but prefer Flowers by a comfortable margin.
- Daniel Murphy – Rockies
- Eric Thames – Brewers
- Yandy Diaz – Rays
- Joey Votto – Reds
The clear-cut favorite for 1B is Daniel Murphy and we just need to hope he is in the lineup. Thames was in the OF last night and could do so against if Yelich is out. Diaz had hit LHP well but is a DK only option.
- Ozzie Albies – Braves
- Robinson Cano – Mets
- Mike Moustakas – Brewers
- Daniel Robertson – Rays
Albies has been great vs. LHP and hits well during the day. Cano faces Mahle who is awful LHH. Moustakas the most power at the position. Robertson is a DK only option who provides some value.
- Nolan Arenado – Rockies
- Josh Donaldson – Braves
- Travis Shaw – Brewers
- Marwin Gonzalez – Twins
Arenado hit 2 HR’s last night and has multi-hit games in 6 of his last 10 games. Donaldson has been battling a calf injury so is questionable. Shaw continues to be underpriced for his power potential and has some BvP. Gonzalez is a value option if needed on FD.
- Greg Garcia – Padres
- Trevor Story – Rockies
- Jorge Polanco – Twins
- Dansby Swanson – Braves
You need value somewhere on FD so Garcia will likely be back hitting lead-off. The pricing is much closer on DK for the SS so guys like Swanson and Polanco are just a few hundred more.
- Michael Conforto – Mets
- Jeff McNeil – Mets
- Ronald Acuna – Braves
- Ian Desmond – Rockies
- Max Kepler – Twins
- Brandon Nimmo – Mets
- Tommy Pham – Rays
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
- Franmil Reyes – Padres
- Johan Camargo – Braves
All of the LHH Mets OF find themselves in good spots vs. Mahle. Acuna got the night off last night so should be fresh and crushes LHP. Desmond is extremely hot & cold and appears to be on a hot spell. Reyes has 2 multi-HR’s in the last 7 games. I didn’t rank Yelich as I think he sits again but he is very much in play if he makes the lineups.