For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (Draftcheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 11am ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
Thursday, April 4th
There are 8 games total for Thursday with 4 games on Draftkings early slate starting at 610 EST and 3 games on FanDuel starting at 700 EST. We have 4 games on the early slate for both sites. These slates are not real cash game slates and are far better suited for GPP’s. We continue to add even more tools to our offerings so be sure to check those out including the all new ownership projections.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- New York Yankees -200
- Cleveland Indians -170
- Los Angeles Angels -145
- New York Mets -131
- Pittsburgh Pirates -121
Highest Run Expectancy
- Atlanta Braves 4.72
- Los Angeles Angels 4.65
- New York Yankees 4.35
- Oakland A’s 4.31
- Chicago Cubs 4.28
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Toronto Blue Jays 2.84
- Washington Nationals 3.00
- Baltimore Orioles 3.15
- New York Mets 3.50
- Cincinnati Reds 3.52
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Tyler Anderson||- - -||152.10||4.14||0.278||4.26||4.53||4.49||34.60||22.30||43.10||68.30%||44.30%||19.60||11.50%||53.20%||5.30||78.30%||36.70%||74.60||14.90%||56.20%||28.90%||1.42||35.30%||90.80||9.60|
|Spencer Howard||- - -||42.00||6.86||0.330||4.14||4.93|
|Jon Lester||- - -||125.10||4.67||0.297||5.40||5.12|
The Best (EARLY)
1) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets – The last outing didn’t work out great for Syndergaard but he has been a better pitcher at home. The Nationals are without Trea Turner which should take some pressure off of Syndergaard on the base paths. He has been better at home in his career and despite the last outing he has good history vs. the Nationals.
2) James Paxton, LHP, Yankees – It most cases, it is not ideal to face the same team in back to back starts but the Orioles have a pathetic lineup. Paxton shut them down last start but was pulled in the 6th inning because the game is close. The hard part on this slate is the price tag is heavy for Paxton but the cheap pitchers on this slate are tough to come by. He has the best K% rate on the slate.
3) Steven Strasburg, RHP, Nationals – The Mets got the short end having to travel from a road night game in Miami to a road day game in New York. This could make things easy for Strasburg. He has a 40% K rate vs. the current Mets roster and is comfortable in Citi Field with just a .578 OPS against in 10 career starts.
4) Brett Anderson, LHP, A’s – The Red Sox offense has been struggling early this season and hasn’t been able to do much in their visits to Oakland the last two seasons. Anderson is not going to get many strikeouts but has the best ground ball rate of any pitcher on the slate.
The Best (LATE)
1) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Indians – The clear cut #1 on the Draftkings slate and the only one that can be trusted. Bauer is one of the few pitchers these days that you can actually count on going deep into a games. The Blue Jays have the 5th lowest wOBA vs. RHP and overall this season.
2) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays – It is not easy trusting Sanchez but the Indians are awful with their best hitter Jose Ramirez still struggling. They have the 2nd lowest wOBA vs. RHP and on the season. Cleveland also has the highest K% rate in the league. The control is still questionable for Sanchez at times which causes a higher pitch count but he did have 5 shutout innings in his last outing.
3) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Pirates – The Reds will eventually start hitting but right now they have 4th lowest wOBA. Lyles has the highest first pitch strike % of any pitcher throwing on Thursday which usually leads to success. A more appealing play on Draftkings with the cheaper price and the good news is that he was stretched out on his rehab so should get close to 100 pitches if he is pitching well.
4) Matt Harvey, RHP, Angels – This is painful to recommend Harvey but the Rangers can strikeout in bunches and really struggled to hit on the road last season. The Draftkings is something I don’t love but he is very cheap on FanDuel which works out since Bauer is not an option.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) SunTrust Park –11.2% above average in runs & 5.6% above average in HR’s to RHH.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Alex Cobb, RHP, Orioles – .359 wOBA vs RHH & 4.47 xFIP
2) James Paxton, LHP, Yankees – .377 wOBA vs. LHH
1) Edinson Volquez, RHP, Rangers – Was out of baseball last season and got pounded his first start this season.
2) Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds – 4.45 xFIP & .415 wOBA vs. LHH
3) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays – 4.98 xFIP & .380 wOBA vs. LHH
4) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Pirates – .355 wOBA vs. RHH
5) Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs – Appears to have completely lost it as he walked 6 of the first 9 hitters in his last start.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position (last 7 games).
C – Wilson Ramos – Mets .474, Wilson Contreras – Cubs .429
1B –Carlos Santana – Indians .471, Freddie Freeman – Braves .500, Pete Alonso – Mets .409
2B – Ozzie Albies – Braves .500, DJ LeMahieu – Yankees .438, Jeff McNeil – Mets .400
3B – Anthony Rendon – Nationals .474, Matt Chapman – A’s .345,
SS – Adalberto Mondesi – Royals .429, Elvis Andrus – Rangers .375, Marcus Semien – A’s .333
OF – Trey Mancini – Orioles .417, Michael Conforto – Mets, JD Martinez – Red Sox .360, Kyle Schwarber – Cubs .353, Aaron Judge – Yankees .333, Dwight Smith – Orioles .333
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
1B – Joey Votto – Reds, Albert Pujols – Angels
OF – Starling Marte – Pirates, Yasiel Puig – Reds, Chad Pinder – A’s
Overall Hitter Rankings
1) Gary Sanchez – Yankees
2) Christian Vazquez – Red Sox
1) Brian McCann – Braves
2) Jonathan Lucroy – A’s
The catcher spot continues to be an uninspiring position. Sanchez has the most upside but feels hard to pay up for considering he has not shown anything since 2017. Vazquez comes at a much cheaper price. McCann gets to face Darvish who has no command right now and LuCroy is one of the few catchers who have hit in the early going.
First Base (EARLY)
1) Greg Bird – Yankees
2) Ryan O’Hearn – Royals
3) Sam Travis – Red Sox
First Base (LATE)
1) Freddie Freeman – Braves
2) Josh Bell – Pirates
3) Carlos Santana – Indians
4) Joey Votto – Reds
The early slate doesn’t exactly excite me so it is more about picking on bad pitchers. The late slate has several guys looking to take advantage of some pitchers who can’t get LHH. If you can’t afford Freeman, Bell is a solid option against Mahle who has been horrific vs. LHH in his career.
Second Base (EARLY)
1) DJ LeMahieu – Yankees
2) Whit Merrifield – Royals
3) Niko Goodrum – Tigers
Second Base (LATE)
1) Adam Frazier – Pirates
2) Ozzie Albies – Braves
3) Rougned Odor – Rangers
LeMahieu’s spot in the lineup will be important if he is in the bottom 3 then move him down. Whit has the speed factor to keep an eye on and Goodrum is one of the few Tigers that have been hitting. Frazier continues the theme of LHH vs. Mahle and Albies has an instant steal if he can reach 1st base.
Third Base (EARLY)
1) Matt Chapman – A’s
2) Jeimer Candelario – Tigers
3) Anthony Rendon – Nationals
Third Base (LATE)
1) Josh Donaldson – Braves
2) Kris Bryant – Cubs
3) Colin Moran – Pirates
The young A’s star has continued to improve at the plate. Candelario can hit RHP much better than LHP and Rendon has been hot to start this season along with good BvP in a tough match-up. Donaldson looking for that first HR that should come very soon. Bryant crushes LHP but looked lost at the plate last night or would be #1 on this list. Moran would be solid play if he gets in the lineup which is not guaranteed.
1) Marcus Semien – A’s
2) Adalberto Mondesi – Royals
1) Javier Baez – Cubs
2) Elvis Andrus – Rangers
3) Andrelton Simmons – Angels
Semien has always been solid vs. LHP and has been seeing RHP well early in the season which tells me he is locked in. Mondesi continues to flash the power and speed even if I don’t 100% believe in him. Baez hits LHP better but is pricy. Andrus and Simmons are solid yet unspectacular players who can hit poor pitching.
1) Khris Davis – A’s
2) Chad Pinder – A’s
3) Brett Gardner – Yankees
4) Aaron Judge – Yankees
5) JD Martinez – Red Sox
6) Mark Canha – A’s
7) Alex Gordon – Royals
8) Stephen Piscotty – A’s
9) Ramon Laureano – A’s
1) Corey Dickerson – Pirates
2) Ronald Acuna – Braves
3) Albert Almora – Cubs
4) Mike Trout – Angels
5) Joey Gallo – Rangers
6) Melky Cabrera – Pirates
7) Kole Calhoun – Angels
8) Jesse Winker – Reds
The A’s OF is loaded with all or nothing HR power. The Yankees are hoping to see the 2018 version of Alex Cobb. Martinez has always crushed LHP and yes I left off Betts on purpose who is in an early season funk. Dickerson can hopefully return to the lineup to pick on Mahle. It is only a matter of time before Trout hits his first HR. The night time slate isn’t loaded with incredible options so finding a cheap value wouldn’t hurt.