[responsivevoice_button voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”Stuck in traffic? Boss looking over your shoulder? Just lazy and don’t want to read?
Click here to LISTEN!”]
For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
Tuesday, April 30th
It was solid night on Monday thanks to the Zack Wheeler fade. He is not an awful pitcher but the monster performance the previous start was an abnormality. We have a full slate of games on Tuesday assuming the weather cooperates. The Midwest games are the ones that we will be tracking the closest and consistent rain will be a problem all week. The slate is loaded with top end pitching and a cheap rookie on FanDuel. It seems to have gotten more challenging over the last week to find the value pitchers. We have a couple solid mid-priced arms on this slate as well. There does appear to be very strong value plays at every position if you choose to pay up for the pitching. I will provide updates as needed and let’s crush this slate!!!
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins will have a good chance of rain most the night. It could be light enough to play through so we will need to track this.
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers will be played with the dome close with rain expected which means the ball will carry well.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers are expecting storms most of the day but the frequency of them is expected to diminish as we get closer to first pitch so this game should get played.
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox will have rain most of the evening. There is a chance that this game could get rained out but there is a chance of a window to play ball.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals will also be expecting some storms. It doesn’t appear to be too widespread so should at least play with a delay possible.
Currently no line on DET/PHI
- Cleveland Indians -200
- Tampa Bay Rays -170
- Houston Astros -158
- Boston Red Sox -155
- Los Angeles Dodgers -155
Highest Run Expectancy
- Texas Rangers 5.51
- Boston Red Sox 5.32
- Chicago White Sox 5.01
- Texas Rangers 4.99
- Los Angeles Angels 4.70
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Miami Dolphins 2.97 – note from Jesse, the editor: We all know he meant Marlins, but this is too damned funny to correct.
- San Francisco Giants 3.15
- Kansas City Royals 3.27
- Minnesota Twins 3.58
- New York Mets 3.80
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Tyler Anderson||- - -||152.10||4.14||0.278||4.26||4.53||4.49||34.60||22.30||43.10||68.30%||44.30%||19.60||11.50%||53.20%||5.30||78.30%||36.70%||74.60||14.90%||56.20%||28.90%||1.42||35.30%||90.80||9.60|
|Spencer Howard||- - -||42.00||6.86||0.330||4.14||4.93|
1) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Indians – The price on FanDuel is high but probably affordable if you use several Pirates bats. The Marlins are 30th in K% rate, 30th in ISO, 29th in wOBA and 27th in RC+ vs. RHP this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bauer throw a complete game with the low walk rate of Miami and being one of the few pitchers allowed to throw 110+ pitches.
2) Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers – It hasn’t been the start Buehler had hoped for to start the season but the last two outings have been much better. He shut down the Reds two starts ago and was doing the same to the Cubs till a cheap 3 run HR ended in his night in his last start. The Giants are 26th in ISO, 30th in wOBA and 30th RC+ vs. RHP this season.
3) Vince Velasquez, RHP, Phillies – A decent pitcher when he can stay healthy which is always a question mark. Velasquez doesn’t go deep into games but has allowed 2 ER’s or less in all four of his starts. The Tigers will be without the DH in this game which always benefits NL pitcher in interleague play. The Tigers have the highest K% rate over the last week along with being 27th in K% rate, 28th in ISO, 26th in wOBA and 25th in RC+ vs. RHP this season.
4) Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves – It feels a little risky with Teheran because his control can be shaky at times but the match-up is good. The Padres are 28th in K% rates, 27th in wOBA and 27th in RC+ over the last 7 days. They are also 28th in K% rate, 25th in wOBA and 24th in RC+ vs. RHP. The Padres struggle way too much vs. pitchers who can get RHH’s out since they are far to RHH.
5) Luis Castillo, RHP, Reds – In six starts this season, Castillo has allowed just 5 ER’s total with a 10.6 K/9. He also has an impressive 14% swinging strike rate. The Mets sit middle of the road in most hitting categories with the exception of ISO which they are bottom 5 vs. RHP and in the last 7 days.
6) Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks – He has not allowed a run in either over his last two starts and has scored at least 22.2 DK points in his last 5 starts. I prefer better options on FanDuel at similar price but he is playable on Draftkings. The Yankees continue to suffer injuries so have a weakened lineup and will be without the DH.
7) Griffin Canning, RHP, Angels – This is a FanDuel specific play at near minimum price. Canning allowed just 1 ER in 17 innings in his three minor league starts. He has been great but keep in mind he did struggle a bit last season vs. LHH specifically. The Blue Jays have the 2nd highest K% rate, 20th ISO, 23rd in wOBA and 22nd in RC+ vs. RHP. Rookie pitchers can struggle in their MLB Debuts with nerves so always some risk, He does allow you to load up on bats on FanDuel.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Globe Life Park – 35.2% runs scored above average, 27.3% HR’s above average, 95.7% 3B’s above average
2) Miller Park – 18.3% runs scored above average, 65.8% above average in HR’s.
3) Guaranteed Rate Field – 22.0% above average in runs scored, 91.3% above average in HR’s, 24.8% above average in hits and 10.8% above average in 2B’s.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Jason Vargas, LHP, Mets – 4.74 xFIP, .367 wOBA vs. RHH, 1.77 HR/9 since last season, 6.71 xFIP, .409 wOBA vs. LHH, .409 wOBA vs. RHH this season
2) Adrian Sampson, RHP, Rangers – 5.18 xFIP, .406 wOBA vs. RHH, 2.0 HR/9 since last season, 5.50 xFIP, .403 wOBA vs. RHH this season
3) Anibal Sanchez, RHP, Nationals – 5.82 xFIP, .436 wOBA vs. LHH this season
4) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Orioles – 5.18 xFIP, .368 wOBA vs. RHH since last season, 5.15 xFIP this season
5) Aaron Brooks, RHP, A’s – 4.84 xFIP, .358 wOBA vs. RHH, 1.82 HR/9 since last season
6) Ivan Nova, RHP, White Sox – .361 wOBA vs LH since last season, .416 wOBA vs. LHH, 3.73 wOBA vs. RHH this season
7) Rick Porcello, RHP, Red Sox – 5.71 xFIP, .522 wOBA vs. LHH this season
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|6||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||148||642||46||119||105||4||12.6||16.00||0.296||0.324||0.321||0.411||0.617||0.429||173|
|8||Frank Schwindel||- - -||52||204||14||33||40||1||6.4||16.20||0.298||0.354||0.340||0.382||0.639||0.426||168|
|12||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|14||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||118||498||39||95||92||25||11.6||26.90||0.334||0.317||0.283||0.367||0.618||0.407||159|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Matt Wieters – Cardinals
1B – Jose Abreu – White Sox, Chris Davis – Orioles, Daniel Murphy – Rockies, Albert Pujols – Angels
2B – Jonathan Villar – Orioles
3B – Ryon Healy – Mariners
SS – Carlos Correa – Astros, Jean Segura – Phillies
OF – George Springer- Astros, Mike Trout – Angels
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Francisco Cervelli – Pirates
- Robinson Chirinos – Astros
- Curt Casali – Reds
- JT Realmuto – Phillies
- Yadier Molina – Cardinals
Sampson is one of the worst pitchers on the slate and the Pirates are underpriced. Chirinos and rest of the Astros have a good track record in Minnesota despite the performance last night. Casali if in the lineup should beat up on Vargas.
- Josh Bell – Pirates
- Jose Abreu – White Sox
- Rhys Hoskins – Phillies
- Matt Adams – Nationals
- Daniel Murphy – Rockies
- Nate Lowe – Rays
Bell has surprising been a Top 5 1B this season while Abreu has been one of hottest hitters in baseball but could have some weather issues. Hoskins has a 1.227 OPS at home this season. Adams has taken over 1B for now and we know he possesses plenty of power. Murphy has been productive since his return but the price is starting to creep up. Lowe gives you a value option on both sites who was crushing in the minors.
- Adam Frazier – Pirates
- Jose Peraza – Reds
- Jose Altuve – Astros
- Rougned Odor – Rangers
- Enrique Hernandez – Dodgers
- Ty France – Padres
Same story with a cheap Pirate leading the way. Peraza becomes even a better play if he gets pushed up the lineup vs. Vargas. He is also SS eligible on DK and dirt cheap. Odor brings plenty of power at a cheap price. Kiki continues to hit LHP and France is a punt option who had a .500 OBP in the minors before his call-up. With the struggles of other Padres and the injury to Tatis, he should get some playing time.
- Eugenio Suarez – Reds
- Vladimir Guerrero – Blue Jays
- Asdrubal Cabrera – Rangers
- Colin Moran – Pirates
- Yoan Moncada – White Sox
- Kris Bryant – Cubs
The clear-cut play to me is Suarez who has a great match-up, hot hitting and good history vs. LHP along with the price on DK is great. Guerrero is bound to have a big game after a quiet weekend. Cabrera should be back in the lineup and has crushed at home this season. Moncada is a solid play but is expensive on both sites. Bryant sits at a nice price on DK.
- Carlos Correa – Astros
- Tim Anderson – White Sox
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
- Gleyber Torres – Yankees
- Greg Garcia – Padres
- Jose Peraza – Reds
Correa has BvP and great history in Minnesota in his favor. Anderson is hitting over .500 at home this season but is expensive. Bogaerts only hits at home and Torres is starting to heat-up. Garcia isn’t a great hitter but has been hitting lead-off and has started strong in recent days. Peraza is SS eligible on DK and cheap.
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- George Springer – Astros
- Mitch Haniger – Mariners
- Gregory Polanco & Bryan Reynolds – Pirates
- Joey Gallo & Nomar Mazara – Rangers
- Philip Ervin – Reds
- Kyle Schwarber – Cubs
- Mike Trout – Angels
- JD Martinez – Red Sox
- Melky Cabrera – Pirates
- Nick Williams – Phillies
- Steve Wilkerson – Orioles (DK)
- Yasiel Puig – Reds
- Khris Davis – A’s
- Christian Yelich – Brewers
Betts has been solid lately yet not quite spectacular so he is still under the radar but also a but underpriced. Springer has BvP and the Astros will hit Pineda. Haniger has crushed LHP and great numbers vs. Hamels. The Pirates are solid values on FD in particular. Reynolds will be the least owned but was awesome in the minors. Ervin would be a value option if in the lineup vs. Vargas and Schwarber solid value with power. The Algo on DK is ignoring Wilkerson’s price at 2300. He is also 2B eligible.