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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 11am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
Thursday, April 25th
There are just 5 games on the main slate for Thursday. I love to attack the east coast bias and not surprisingly the 640 EST game for the Braves and Reds is not on the schedule. This is a slate where it should have been included but I am not surprised.
There are two clear cut pitching options in cash tonight that ranked far above the rest. There a few positions on the infield that you should be able to spend down on to build quality lineups. 5 game slates are going to see plenty of ownership on the same guys. It is more of a GPP slate than a cash slate for me. You can definitely play cash but I would recommend scaling back on these types of slates.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- Philadelphia Phillies -200
- Boston Red Sox -190
- Seattle Mariners -168
- Houston Astros -160
Highest Run Expectancy
- Boston Red Sox 5.54
- Seattle Mariners 4.83
- Philadelphia Phillies 4.43
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Miami Marlins 3.07
- Cleveland Indians 3.50
- Texas Rangers 3.67
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies – It hasn’t been a great start to the season for Nola but he did strikeout 9 in his last start at Coors. He gets to face the Marlins who are a great match-up. Miami has the 4th highest K% rate, 2nd lowest ISO and lowest wOBA over the last week. They also have the highest K% rate, lowest ISO, 2nd lowest wOBA vs. RHP this season. Nola has struggled with homers allowed but the punch less Marlins offense should lower that risk. Nola is the clear-cut option on FanDuel.
2) Gerrit Cole, RHP, Astros – The Indians do have Francisco Lindor back but the offense is still well below average. Cleveland is 7th highest K% rate, lowest ISO and 6th lowest wOBA over the last week. They also have the 5th highest K% rate, 2nd lowest ISO and 4th lowest wOBA vs. RHP this season. Cole has an incredible 44 K’s in just 29 1/3 innings this season. Cole is expensive on FanDuel but hard to fade the Nola/Cole combo on Draftkings.
3) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Indians – There is history of some talk between Bauer and calling out the Astros for cheating. He has allowed 2 ER or less in 4 of his 5 starts and at least 7 K’s in each start this season. The Astros are a tough match-up but Bauer had 13 K’s in 7 1/3 innings last season but ran into some problems in the 8th inning. He is an elite pitcher that is under 10k on Draftkings so he will always be of some interest.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Angel Stadium – 17.6% above average for HRs to LHH, 8.7% above average for runs scored to LHH in 2018. 40.3% above average in runs, 96.4% above average for HR’s in 2019.
2) Citizens Bank Park – 19% above average for HR’s
Things To Target (Against)
1) Jordan Zimmerman, RHP, Tigers – 4.49 xFIP, .348 wOBA vs. LHH since last season, .381 wOBA vs. LHH in 2019
2) Rick Porcello, RHP, Red Sox – .535 wOBA vs. LHH, .374 wOBA vs. RHH in 2019
3) Trevor Cahill, RHP, Angels – .508 wOBA vs. LHH in 2019
4) Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies – .433 wOBA vs. LHH in 2019
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
1B – Steve Pearce – Red Sox
2B – Gordon Beckham – Tigers
OF – Joey Gallo – Rangers, Josh Reddick – Astros
Overall Hitter Rankings
- JT Realmuto – Phillies
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Robinson Chirinos – Astros
- Jonathan Lucroy – Angels
Realmuto is very expensive but the best option. It is hard to justify the expensive price tag for him or Sanchez. Chirinos is cheap so hopefully can continue his limited success vs. Bauer where he has 2 HR’s in 8 PA’s. Lucroy is a punt option on DK.
- Mitch Moreland – Red Sox
- Rhys Hoskins – Phillies
- Edwin Encarnacion – Mariners
- Steve Pearce – Red Sox
- Brandon Dixon – Tigers
The 1B gives us plenty of affordable options in some good match-ups. The Red Sox have the highest expected run total and I love to see Moreland between Betts and Martinez. Pearce has good BvP if in the lineup. Hoskins is an on-base machine vs. LHP. Dixon is a punt option in the middle of a lineup against a pitcher who has been awful.
- Michael Chavis – Red Sox
- Ronny Rodriguez – Tigers
- Tommy Lastella – Angels
- Dee Gordon – Mariners
There probably hasn’t been a worse position group on any slate all season. None of these players grade out very well and I can’t see paying up for Jose Altuve. Find the way that works best with your mini-stacks or stacks and cross your fingers.
- Jeimer Candelario -Tigers
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox
- Ryon Healy – Mariners
- Maikel Franco – Phillies
All of these guys have affordable prices in favorable match-ups. Porcello has a .535 wOBA vs. LHH and Devers should get plenty of run producing options. The top 2 options are of the most interest to me.
- Tim Beckham – Mariners
- Gordon Beckham – Tigers
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
- Andrelton Simmons – Angels
A pair of Beckhams take the lead at SS. Tim has crushed LHP this season and gets a shaky Rangers bullpen. Gordon has some great BvP vs. Porcello. Bogaerts has always hit better at home and Simmons is always that standby option when nothing else is desired.
- Mookie Betts – Red Sox
- JD Martinez – Red Sox
- Mitch Haniger – Mariners
- Andrew McCutchen – Phillies
- Joey Gallo – Rangers
- Josh Redick – Astros
- Nike Goodrum – Tigers
- Aaron Altherr – Phillies
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Bryce Harper – Phillies
- Brett Gardner – Yankees
- Hunter Pence – Rangers
The spend down options on FanDuel are hard to come by in the OF but we don’t have to pay much for the Boston OF these days. Betts has found his groove and won’t stay under 4k on FD very long. You can find cheaper options on Draftkings across the board with all of them not being very expensive. A guy like Haniger is hard to spend up for on DK while Gardner is much more affordable on DK than FD. Altherr could be the best value OF if in the lineup.