A quick set of rankings for the 5 game afternoon slates
- Walker Buehler
- Chris Paddock
- Cole Hamels
- Jeff Samardzjia
- Victor Caratini – Nothing else to like
- Anthony Rizzo
- Justin Bour
- Max Muncy
- Dan Vogelbach
- Ben Zobrist
- Logan Forysthe
- Tommy LaStella
- Daniel Descalso
- Kris Bryant
- Matt Chapman
- Eduardo Nunez
- Marcus Semien
- Javier Baez
- Xander Bogaerts
- Elvis Andrus
- Kyle Schwarber
- JD Martinez
- Mookie Betts
- Chad Pinder
- Kole Calhoun
- Joc Pederson
- Cody Bellinger
- Stephen Piscotty
- Mike Trou
- Jay Bruce
- Mallex Smith
- Alex Verdugo
We have 9 games on the main slate for the Cash Breakdown with plenty of pitchers to choose. They may not be elite but find themselves in good match-ups. I will try to provide some more plays for the afternoon slate of games after the first slate locks since we have 5 games scheduled for a 4 EST lock.
It is important to keep in mind that Sundays are normally a bit more random and that I normally recommend scaling back your play. This week maybe an exception as I am seeing a bunch of highly owned plays that shouldn’t be early in the season. We have an even greater edge right now so need to take advantage of that. I will provide updates as needed before roster lock so be sure to check beforehand. Let’s keep crushing!!
Updates 1130 EST
The Yankees game will likely start in a delay but there is no reason it shouldn’t get played. Keep in mind though, New York has been weird before so not completely without some risk. I will be using some of them in cash myself.
The Mets lineup sets up nicely for Patrick Corbin so definitely bump him up my list. C Danny Jansen – Blue Jays is now the chalk at C in cash since he is leading off. Daniel Robertson – Rays is hitting 3rd (3B on FD & 2B/SS on DK) is a value option. 3B Yandy Diaz-Rays leading off vs. Miley. Scott Schebler – Reds is a solid price leading off. Jose Martinez – Cardinals hitting 3rd who can rake but sucks on defense so could be replaced for defense later in the game. Please note other than Corbin and Jansen none of these guys are must or great plays just like providing some more value plays.
Normally just a cash article here but some stacks I like are the Yankees, Reds, sadly Jays & Tigers (be careful both these teams suck so even bad pitchers can shut them down) and the Royals/White Sox.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees are expecting some rain until the early afternoon hours. A delayed start is a real possibility but they should get this game played with just a little patience.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds will be cold with a high temperature of 40 degrees expected.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins will also have some cold weather to deal with.
1) J.A. Happ, Yankees – The Orioles managed to frustrate the Yankees yesterday but New York is once again the biggest favorite on the board. I do expect them to bounce back with a big game offensively. Happ has owned current Orioles hitters allowing just a .197 avg against. He had a solid end of season last year with New York and has handled himself well in Yankee stadium allowing just a .219 avg against in his career.
2) Sonny Gray, Reds – The price on FanDuel is a bit surprising at just 6.8k. Gray blames his issues last season on the Yankees coaching staff which quite honestly sounds like a bit of whining. The move over to the National league should help improve his numbers. At times in his career, he shown the ability to be a top tier pitcher. Gray allowed just a .599 OPS in his career in interleague games so has shown the ability to dominate NL hitting.
3) Jon Gray, Rockies – The biggest issue for Jon Gray has been that one bad inning in half of his starts. He had a strong spring with a 22:1 K to BB ratio and takes on the sad Miami offense. Gray has a 9.56 K/9 last season which helps make up for some of those rough outings. The HR has also been an issue but the Marlins lack power and the ballpark only makes that worse for them.
4) Carlos Carrasco, Indians – For whatever reason, Carrasco allows an OPS of 124 points lower when he goes on the road than at home. He had a 10.83 K/9 last season which is probably the reason he is the highest priced pitcher on both sites. The cold weather in Minnesota only helps the pitchers. He is a solid play but feeling the guys above him just a bit more.
5) Patrick Corbin, Nationals – The slider became a difference maker for Corbin when he decided to use it even more last season. He had a 11.07 K/9 last year that got him paid some big money. The Mets struggled vs. LHP last season and there is nothing in their lineup that I would expect to change that this season. It will be interesting to see how many LHH’s New York dares to put into the lineup as they don’t stand much of a chance.
1) New York Yankees -350
2) Colorado Rockies -148
3) Washington Nationals -135
4) Cincinnati Reds -135
5) Toronto Blue Jays -130
Highest Run Expectancy
1) New York Yankees 5.72
2) Toronto Blue Jays 4.82
3) Kansas City Royals 4.68
4) Milwaukee Brewers 4.51
5) Chicago White Sox 4.32
Lowest Run Expectancy
1) Baltimore Orioles 2.78
2) Tampa Bay Rays 3.00
3) New York Mets 3.44
4) Miami Marlins 3.45
5) Cleveland Indians 3.50
5) Minnesota Twins 3.50
- Globe Life Park – 35.2% above average in runs scored, 27.3% above average in total HR’s, 44.7% above average in XBH in 2018.
- Yankee Stadium –12.6% above average in runs scored, 16.6% above average in total HR’s, 27.4% above average in HR to LHH.
- Great American Ballpark –12.8% above average in runs scored, 39.5% above average in total HR’s, 42.0% above average in HR to RHH.
- Citizens Bank Ballpark –19.0% above average in total HR’s, 28.9% above average in HR’s to RHH.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST (using 2018 numbers)
1) Matt Moore, LHP, Tigers – 5.06 xFIP along with a .369 wOBA vs. LHH & .390 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles – .399 wOBA vs. LHH and had a horrific spring
3) Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox – 5.46 xFIP and .361 wOBA vs. LHH though did improve late in the season but was awful in spring training.
4) Trent Thornton, RHP, Blue Jays – .283 avg against in 2018 vs. LHH and .349 avg. against in 2017
5) Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins – 5.16 xFIP and has show a real problem with his control
6) Jorge Lopez, RHP, Royals – 4.72 xFIP and .351 wOBA vs. RHH
(Based on my historical & 2018 model, and as discussed on SiriusXM)
- Baltimore Orioles
- Texas Rangers
- Los Angeles Angels
- Miami Marlins
- Kansas City Royals
The hottest hitters at each position (Spring Training stats)
C – Blake Swihart .406, Chance Sisco .382, Yan Gomes .375, Jonathan Lucroy .357, Francisco Mejia .354, Wilson Ramos .351
1B – Ronald Guzman .400, Carlos Santana .397, Yuli Gurriel .372, Brandon Belt .370, Ji-Man Choi .366, Anthony Rizzo .362, Jesus Aguilar .356, CJ Cron .356
2B – Robinson Cano .441, Joe Panik .426, Ryan McMahon .424, Brandon Lowe .377, Lourdes Gurriel .366, Josh Harrison .366, Yoan Moncada .358
3B – Justin Turner .457, Nolan Arenado .389, Rafael Devers .385, Cheslor Cuthbrett .375, Brian Anderson .354, Mike Moustakas .348
SS – Miguel Rojas .439, Elvis Andrus .432, Bo Bichette .410, Addison Russell .382, Amed Rosario .356, Dansby Swanson .353, Jose Peraza .348
OF – Yasmany Tomas .448, Christian Yelich .442, Leury Garcia .431, Byron Buxton .410, Jay Bruce .406, Brett Gardner .394, Domingo Santana .393, Nick Markakis .387
C – Chance Sisco 1.298, Isiah Kiner-Falefa 1.167, Yan Gomez 1.105, JT Realmuto 1.097, Jason Castro 1.042, Wilson Contreras 1.037, Blake Swihart 1.018
1B – Ronald Guzman 1.269, Justin Smoak 1.153, Greg Bird 1.143, Miguel Cabrera 1.142, Brandon Belt 1.127, Carlos Santana 1.084, Anthony Rizzo 1.072
2B – Ryan McMahon 1.232, Lourdes Gurriel 1.185, Chris Owings 1.129, Yoan Moncada 1.110, Brandon Lowe 1.109, Ian Kinsler 1.095, Robinson Cano 1.086
3B – Justin Turner 1.334, Nolan Arenado 1.209, Alex Bregman 1.165, Jung-ho Kang 1.113, Brian Anderson 1.081, Jeimer Candelerio 1.007
SS – Bo Bichette 1.260, Ehire Adrianza 1.054, Elvis Andrus 1.045, Amed Rosario .998, Dansby Swanson .980, Troy Tulowitzki .970
OF – Domingo Santana 1.397, Aaron Judge 1.394, Christian Yelich 1.292, Byron Buxton 1.249, Jay Bruce 1.176, Chad Pinder 1.160, Bryce Harper 1.147, Brett Gardner 1.147
C – Francisco Cervelli 4, Yan Gomes 4, Austin Hedges 4, JT Realmuto 4, Chance Sisco 4, Mike Zunino 4
1B – Matt Adams 6, Yonder Alonso 5, Miguel Cabrera 5, Ronald Guzman 5, Jose Abreu 4, Pete Alonso 4, Cody Bellinger 4, Brandon Belt 4, Justin Bour 4, Luke Voit 4, Justin Smoak 4
2B – Lourdes Gurriel 4, Garrett Hampson 4, Ian Kinsler 4, Rougned Odor 4, Chris Owings 4, Gleyber Torres 4
3B – Jung-ho Kang 7, Nolan Arenado 5, Anthony Rendon 5, Travis Shaw 5, Alex Bregman 3, Jeimer Candelerio 3, Matt Carpenter 3
SS – Bo Bichette 4, Trevor Story 4, Troy Tulowitzki 4, Ehire Adrianza 3, Tyler Saldino 3, Willy Adames 2, Paul DeJong 2, Freddie Galvis 2
OF – Aaron Judge 6, Lewis Brinson 5, Michael Conforto 5, Tyler O’Neil 5, Jorge Soler 5, Ronald Acuna 4, Byron Buxton 4, Randall Grichuk 4, Jose Pirela 4, Yasiel Puig 4
BATTER VS. PITCHER
C – Yasmani Grandal – Brewers
1B – Joey Votto – Reds, Ryan Zimmerman – Nationals
2B – Brad Miller – Indians
3B – Renato Nunez – Orioles
OF – Adam Eaton- Nationals, Avisail Garcia – Rays, Nelson Cruz – Twins, Kevin Kiermaier – Rays
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Gary Sanchez – Yankees
2) Austin Romine – Yankees
3) Tony Wolters – Rockies
4) Wilson Ramos – Mets
Days like today is why FanDuel got rid of the catcher position. Most of the good hitting catchers could be out of the lineup. I ranked the Yankees catchers as the best options but it could set-up as one of those days where you find a punt option who finds his way into a decent spot in the order.
1) Greg Bird – Yankees
2) Joey Votto – Reds
3) Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals
4) Luke Voit – Yankees
5) Jose Abreu – White Sox
Bundy is awful vs. LHH which makes Bird even better in Yankee Stadium. Let’s hope he gets a little higher spot in the lineup. Votto is a better option on DK than FD and of course we know what Goldschmidt does in Milwaukee.
1) Whit Merrifield – Royals
2) Jose Altuve – Astros
3) Niko Goodrum – Tigers
4) Gleyber Torres – Yankees (SS too on DK)
5) Ryan McMahon – Rockies
Two-Hit Whit loves to beat up on the White Sox and Altuve is always a solid option. The Tigers are an awful offense but Thornton has been that bad vs. LHH in the minors. Maybe Torres gets a better a line-up spot which would bump him up this list.
1) Yoan Moncada – White Sox
2) Eugenio Suarez – Reds
3) Alex Bregman – Astros
4) Brandon Drury – Blue Jays
5) Jeimer Candelario – Tigers
Moncada has started strong trying to live up to his hype and Suarez has always been strong right out of spring training. Drury has been hitting lead-off and is still cheap but keep in mind he is a below average MLB hitter. Sorry for listing Candelario again but Thornton is awful.
1) Adalberto Mondesi – Royals
2) Paul Dejong – Cardinals
3) Jung-Ho Kang – Pirates (DK only)
4) Willy Adames – Rays
Mondesi has shown power and speed but doesn’t come cheap against an awful pitcher. Dejong continues to be slightly underpriced. Kang and Torres are SS eligible on DK. Adames crushed LHP in the minors last year and his dirt cheap on FD.
1) Aaron Judge – Yankees
2) Brett Gardner – Yankees
3) Ryan Braun – Brewers
4) Michael Brantley – Astros
5) Christian Yelich – Brewers
6) Tommy Pham – Rays
7) Jorge Soler – Royals
8) George Springer – Astros
9) Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays
10) David Dahl – Rockies
11) Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
The Yankee OF is going to popular while Braun appears locked in at the plate in the earlier going. Yelich has continued his run from last year and Brantley is more affordable on DK. Most of the OF’s on the DK are somewhat affordable but we are finding bigger price differences on FD in OF.