Your complete guide to tomorrow morning’s best-of-threes LoL slate on DraftKings.
If you’re new to our eSports team, we have a Twitter account that will be posting lineups, news, or anything else that I think is relevant for LoL DFS. You can follow that account @esports_ef and you’ll find me on Twitter @RyanClifford
My projections for tonight’s slate are already loaded into the EliteFantasy.com LoL optimizer and lineup builder. Let’s get to work!
Some opto settings I like to use when MME’ing on these 4 or 5-match slates:
- Unique players per lineup 2-3 players
- Minimum salary of $49,000 for any NON 4-3 builds (4-3’s can be less)
- Offensive players vs. Team: 0 players
- Randomness around 10-15%
- Players from Game MAX – 4
- Limit Opposing Players – 0
- Stack CAPT with at least 1 TOP/JNG/MID/ADC/SUP from same team
- Have at least one 3-player stack (4-3, 4-2-1, or 3-3-1 are all viable builds)
- No TOP, SUP, or TEAM CAPT (ADC or MID are best-suited for CAPT)
This slate features best-of-three matches:
Team WE (-350) vs. Bilibili Gaming (+250)
- Projected kills per game (per my model): WE 15.9 – Bilibili 11.1
TT (-525) vs. Rogue Warriors (+335)
- Projected kills per game (per my model): TT 15.5 – Rogue 12.1
Gen.G Esports (+175) vs. DAMWON Gaming (-230)
- Projected kills per game (per my model): Gen.G 12.2 – DWG 13.7
Hanwha Life Esports (-425) vs. KT Rolster (+280)
- Projected kills per game (per my model): Hanwha 15.8 – Rolster 12.1
With that in mind, here are my player rankings by position – these are value rankings based on point per dollar:
- CAPT: Jiumeng (WE), Chovy (HLE), Shanks (WE)
- TOP: Chelizi (TT), Breathe (WE), Morgan (HLE)
- JNG: Xiaopeng (TT), beishang (WE), Clid (GEN)
- MID: Chovy (HLE), Shanks (WE), Twila (TT)
- ADC: Jiumeng (WE), Deft (HLE), SamD (TT)
- SUP: Teeen (TT), BeryL (DWG), Missing (WE)
- TEAM: KT Rolster, Rogue Warriors, Team WE
The chalk should be TT and DAMWON Gaming.
We have four pretty sizable favorites on the slate tonight. Unfortunately, my model coincides with the Vegas odds. Team WE is priced as the biggest favorite, so they shouldn’t see a ton of ownership tonight, and they lead all teams on the slate in projected kills per team. This is my clear target tonight for GPP lineups. WE has won five straight series, and sit right below Royal Never Give Up at the top of the LPL standings. Jiumeng grades out as my top point-per-dollar CAPT on the slate, while each of the other four players in their lineup grade out in the top three of their respective positions.
Unfortunately, the only other favorite that will fit into an optimal build with WE is the chalky TT. Odds swung massively throughout the day, which has led to an underpriced -525 favorite on the slate. We do have three players in the TT lineup that grade out as the top value at their position, so this is probably the spot to eat the chalk if we’re ever going to do it. I think if you top your lineup with a Team WE CAPT, and have a 4-man WE stack with just 3 of the chalk TT players; we should have a lineup that doesn’t get duped too many times in the big GPP.
The other team you can look at if you want to get even more contrarian is Hanwha Life. HLE has a pretty steady roster for an LCK team, so you shouldn’t need to worry about any surprise lineup changes after lock. Again, you’ll have to stack them with TT. I don’t like HLE as much as WE, but I think both are in real good spots.
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