A new course hits the rotation for the KLM Open this week in the Netherlands (I’ve typed the city once already and refuse to try it again). The International is a Par 73 measuring around 7,000 yards which is really short and with it being a Par 73, some low scores are to be had, especially with five par 5’s and all of them have a reasonable eagle opportunities.
The course is fairly wide open with undulating hills and the course’s main line of defense is the thick rough bordering the narrow fairways. Water is also a primary line of defense as it comes into play on ten of the eighteen holes. The greens are enormous so if players do miss them, they should have a strong around the green game in order to get up & down (as they’ll likely have long chips across the green or will see buried lies in the rough).
The ideal course fit requires accuracy off the tee and on approaches and a strong ability to think your way around the course. With the lack of any top tier players in the field (sorry Patrick Reed), I don’t think there’s a clear-cut favorite to win and therefore this is anyone’s tournament.
o The Course
· The International
· Par: 73
· Yardage: 7,000 yards
· Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Badhoevedorp, Netherlands
o Past Champions: None at this course
KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – SG: OTT + SG: APP, Par 5 scoring, Birdies or better, Scrambling
o Important – Par 4 Scoring, Greens in Regulation, Strong links record
THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS
- Patrick Reed (DK $11,600)
· Form: 36th– DNP – 15th– 19th
· Stats: Not enough events on Euro Tour
· Analysis: Won the Northern Trust a month back and hung onto decent finishes to close out the season on the PGA Tour, but last week’s 36thplace finish (where he showcased his Augusta/Masters themed Porsche) was probably a better indication of what we can expect during what’s pretty obvious to be a “working vacation”. I’ll pass on Reed this week at this price, even in GPPs.
- Thomas Pieters (DK $11,100): 20th – 12th – DNP – Win is how his form looks as he enters this week. Pieters is interesting to me as a strong Par 5 scorer and someone whose game looks rejuvenated following his win a month ago. He’d be the first of the bunch at the top of the board that I’ll be looking at to start my lineups with.
- Sergio Garcia (DK $10,500): The only event he’s looked like “normal” Sergio was the one he hosted, so there’s much left to be had with the Spaniard’s game. He’s been abysmal pretty much all year and now we’re being asked to pay a premium for his lack of strong play? Hard pass for me, even though on the surface he looks to be a solid play. If you must play him, make sure it’s in tournaments and at low exposure. (play Matt Wallace at $10,700 in GPPs, form is slightly better, upside is much higher assuming he finds his groove from this year’s majors).
- Sam Horsfield (DK $9,100)
· Form: 14th– 43rd– 10th– 3rd
· Stats: 25th– SG: OTT, 81st– SG: T2G, 155th– SG: APP, 65th– SG: P
· Analysis: The form is strong as indicated by one finish outside of the Top 15 in his last four events and is sure to be a popular play amongst the Euro Tour regs this week. I’d prefer him in double ups to triple ups and swerve on him in GPPs, unless making more than 20 lineups because I can only assume, he’s going to be the chalkiest play in this price range.
- Gavin Green (DK $9,000): Don’t look now, but Gavin’s been on quite a run the past month having finished 12th– 16th – 58thin his last three events and going back to July where he went 37th – 8th – 9th – MC before the major season break. Some may consider him to be overpriced, but he’s going well now so we’re paying for the form and he certainly has the tools to get around this course under par.
- Ashley Chesters (DK $7,700): T9 last week at the Porsche, has made the cut at this event twice in two tries, so there’s some level of comfort on the terrain even if it’s a course he’s never played in competition. He’s made three of four cuts in the last month and provided us with plenty of upside in that span – everything is in play for Chesters so he’s been suited as a GPP play.
Honorable Mentions – Lee Slattery (DK $8,000), Jeff Winther (DK $7,900), Niklas Lemke (DK $7,300)
SALARY RELIEF SECTION
- Hideto Tanihara (DK $7,300)
· Form: DNP – 29th– 30th– DNP
· Stats: 178th– SG: OTT, 163rd– SG: T2G, 184th– SG: APP, 56th– SG: P
Analysis: Finished T20 in Crans a few weeks ago, where he was contending for a brief period and even though he finished T3 at this event last year, on a different course, you’d be pressed to find someone with his course fit at this price.
- Lorenzo Gagli (DK $7,100): Two weeks removed from being in a five-man playoff (with Rory) and should be over the emotional scarring that was left behind (as indicated by last week’s missed cut). Gagli is a decent course fit who could be a strong course fit if the putting shows up.
Honorable Mentions: Brandon Stone (DK $7,100), Ben Evans (DK $7,000), Daniel Gavins (DK $6,600)
CONTRARIAN CORE (GPP PLAYS)
- Joost Luiten (DK $9,800): Netherlands very own has won this event at Kennemer and The Dutch, so if he were to win here it wouldn’t be a surprise. Comes in with decent form in his last two events (23rd– 29th) and isn’t the betting market favorite, which was the case in both previous wins.
- Mike Lorenzo-Vera (DK $9,600): 6th two weeks ago at the European Masters and playing well this season as he’s notched nine Top 30’s on the calendar year. Strong ball striker and a decent putter means we’re playing him at core exposures this week.
- Matthew Southgate (DK $7,600): A “wise” man once said, “If you tout someone enough times, eventually you’ll be right” and that’s the approach I’m apparently taking with Southgate this season. Southgate strives on links layouts and visually that’s what we have this week, so hopefully it translates to his eyes as it does mine. 46th last week is good enough for me following the MC – 10th – 30th run he had leading in.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!
– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)