Today’s NHL Showdown Breakdown goes over Friday’s Showdown contests featuring the Columbus Blue Jackets and Chicago Blackhawks. Lineup lock is going to be 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.
While I am not a big showdown player, fortunately our own Ryan Clifford is, and he has been able to outline six specific rules that we are implementing for Showdown. The rules are:
Rule #1 – No defensemen at CAPT (87.7% of optimals)
Rule #2 – Use a max of 1 goalie (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #3 – Set a minimum salary of $43,000 (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #4 – Remove third and fourth line forwards from CAPT pool (84.4% of optimals)
Rule #5 – Do not use any full-line stacks (95.4% of optimals)
Rule #6 – Use a max of 2 players from opposing team when using a goalie CAPT, and max 3 players from opposing team when using a UTIL goalie. (~92.8% of optimals)
ODDS
CBJ -135
GAME ANALYSIS
The Blue Jackets are going to be playing their second game in as many nights, but they are also coming off of a big win against a pretty solid Panthers team, and don’t have a drop off when it comes to their goalie tandem. Joonas Korpisalo is a good goaltender who won’t make many mistakes.
The Hawks are dealing with a thin roster to begin with due to Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach being out of the lineup but they’re also having to hang in there with Alex Debrincat, Adam Boqvist, and Lucas Wallmark all being on the COVID list.
At the time of this post, the three Hawks players were still on the COVID list. Hopefully it stays that way just for the sake of avoiding surprises and having to guess lines.
In general, it makes all the sense in the world for the Blue Jackets to have the edge tonight. I’d say the main issue I have with the Blue Jackets is that they tend to not put any of their opponents away. They’ve played a total of nine game so far this season, and they only have ONE win with a margin of victory greater than one goal.
You can almost bank on the Hawks keeping this one close one way or another. A big reason for that may be their goaltender, Kevin Lankinen, who has been fantastic so far this season. I don’t know if he’s legitimately good, but if anything, he’s proven that he is a formidable goaltender in the NHL and that he’s better than Subban and Delia.
Most scenarios are going to involve Patrick Kane doing something for the Hawks. He drives so much of their offense that it’d be hard to imagine him not doing something productive, but given the high variance nature of DFS hockey, it’s always a possibility (he did get ZERO points in Game 1 against the Predators). Yon would be gaining HUGE leverage if you fade Kane in showdown, but it is also just as huge of a risk.
I think an overlooked way to get some exposure to the Hawks could be through their defensemen. The trio of Duncan Keith, Calvin de Haan, and Connor Murphy are all very productive from a fantasy standpoint, and will provide a solid floor with a little upside. On the other hand, for Columbus, while Zach Werenski and Seth Jones provide the Star Power, they have not been too productive in DFS this season. I’m sure they will break out at some point this season, but their underlying numbers don’t really support it this moment. I still think Werenski is the most likely of the two to have a big game, but he is still highly fadeable due to the likely ownership coming his way.
Max Domi had a break out performance yesterday, and I think his line is probably the best equipped of the four Columbus lines to produce tonight as well. I get the sense the Kampf/Carpenter duo will match up against the either the Texier line or the Jenner line. As far as Domi’s line is concerned, I like the mini-stack with Domi and Liam Foudy. Foudy is a low-key rock solid fantasy play (high shot volume), and is excellent on the forecheck and cycling the puck.
For the Hawks, I wouldn’t be surprised if David Kampf and Ryan Carpenter have some type of fantasy impact, since they are the most trusted defensive forwards and will get critical ice time. But the logical best play will be a combination from the top line of Janmark/Suter/Kane. You can also consider using some Strome/Kubalik with Kane due to the PP1 time.
Captain Pool: Korpisalo, Werenski, Texier, Bjorkstrand, Foligno, Domi (CBJ); Lankinen, Kane, Kubalik, Janmark, Strome (CHI)
Favorite Mini-Stacks: Kane/Janmark, Kubalik/Strome, Kampf/Carpenter, Domi/Foudy, Texier/Foligno
Overall Player Pool: Texier, Bjorkstrand, Foligno, Foudy, Domi, Jenner, Atkinson, Roslovic, Werenseki, Jones, Savard, Kane, Janmark, Kubalik, Suter. Kurashev, Kampf, Carpenter, Keith, de Haan, Murphy
*Note: You can certainly include more players in the pool if you’re maxing out lineups, but I think it’ll be best if you stick with this core.
