Today’s NHL GPP Breakdown goes over Wednesday’s six (6) game main slate, which will lock at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT.
UPDATE (5:45 PM ET): With Adam Fox and Pavel Buchnevich unexpectedly making their return to the lineup, I am off on Jacob Trouba as one of my main punt plays, and I probably don’t feel as strongly about PHI1. They are certainly playable but being shadowed by Fox most of the game isn’t the best situation. And yes, I do need to emphasize that they are still playable. Georgiev has been one of the worst goalies in the league in recent weeks.
ADDITIONALLY, it looks like Shayne Gostisbehere is out for the Flyers. I think this probably upgrades Travis Sanheim as a punt.
I’m going to be copy/pasting this GPP process for every GPP article that I write this season.
Remember, the concept of playing GPPs is generally the same in all sports. Take some risks. Be a little different. Go for the win. In GPPs, if your lineups are cashing more often than not cashing, you’re probably doing it wrong.
People who have more winning nights than losing nights at GPPs are probably people who don’t take enough risks to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, which tends to be what you want to go for when you’re entering GPP tournaments. If you think doing so is “too risky” then I highly advise for you to stick to cash games.
When it comes to taking the necessary risks to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in these tournaments, you’re going to have to stack. Stacking in NHL means playing 2, 3, or 4 players from the same team who play on the same line (either at even strength or on the power-play).
As a whole, the most common stacks (not including goalie) that you’ll see on DraftKings is probably 4-3-1 or 3-3-2. The most common stacks that you’ll see on FanDuel is probably 4-4 or 4-3-1. Is that the way to go? Not necessarily. The bigger your stacks, the more risk you’re taking, but the bigger the upside. The smaller the stacks, the less risk you’re taking, but it comes with less upside.
The approach I am recommending EVERYONE takes this season is to start with a 3-2-1 stack and go from there. This means entering a 3 man stack, a 2 man stack, and a standalone player (doesn’t matter if it’s a C, W, or D), and then go from there. There’s a lot of different combinations you can go with after those six players are locked in. The possibilities are endless.
Please be sure to keep an eye on late news by looking at our NHL Team Beat Writers lists on Twitter by clicking here.
Before I go through my favorite stacks of the day, let’s take a close look at the updated 5v5 Pace of Play chart, which is based on data since March 1. This chart also includes high danger shots to give some additional perspective.
The two things that stand out for me is the fact that Ottawa/Vancouver are on the top of the list and the fact that the Kings have somehow had some crazy games with a lot of high-danger chances on both ends of the ice.
Stacks to Consider
With 4 lines and 2 power-play units per team, there are a lot of different options. I am listing eight (8) stacks that I think are very much in play today This does not include numerous VIABLE stack options. Please feel free to go outside of these stacks, but I promise you, I’ve narrowed down my list, and I do feel these are my favorite.
Also, for those who are not familiar, if I am listing 4-5 players for each line, you are absolutely not required to play all of them. Mathematically speaking, you’re losing EV by playing anything more than 3 (only three players can receive points for a goal). Obviously there’s situations where a team hits big, so some 4, 5, and even 6 man stacks (DK only) come through, but those are few and far between. Follow my process at the top of my article and at a minimum, focus on one 3-man stack and work from there.
*These stacks are listed in order of my early guess at the overall popularity (chalkiness)
VGK1: Max Paciorietty/Chandler Stephenson or Cody Glass/Mark Stone
Possible add-on: Shea Theodore
San Jose actually did a pretty decent job at containing VGK’s top line on Monday, but I doubt they’ll be able to do it two games in a row. Mark Stone is playing out of his mind right now and if you can count on one guy to facilitate offense right now, I’d put my money on him.
OTTPP1: Brady Tkachuk/Drake Batherson/Tim Stützle/Evgenii Dadonov/Thomas Chabot
Thatcher Demko has been absolutely outstanding. Statistically speaking, he has saved more goals than any other goalie in recent months and 5th most if we’re looking at the entire 2021 season. With that said, the man had to stand on his head to steal Vancouver the victory in Game 1 against the Senators. The Sens absolutely dominated the first game of the series, but Demko’s theatrics was able to come through and stifle a pretty relentless attack.
It sucks having to target against a really good goalie, but Vancouver can only do so much given the defensive liabilities throughout the lineup. I’m going to have shares of OTTPP1, who have continued to be stellar in the puck movement department, which has helped them net a lot of EASY goals with the man advantage this season.
WPGPP1: Kyle Connor/Mark Scheifele/Blake Wheeler/Paul Stastny/Josh Morrissey
The only reason why Ottawa’s ownership will be higher than WPG’s power-play is because of their low price. In reality, I can see WPG being popular because, well, they did connect on TWO big power-play goals in Monday’s loss to the Habs. While Montreal has won the last two meetings, Winnipeg actually came away with a victory in the previous three meetings, scoring a combined 12 goals. While scoring for the Habs can really be spread throughout their top three lines, I think the vast majority of the time, Winnipeg scoring is going to have a heavy focus on the top two lines, and obviously, their top power-play unit. I think Winnipeg tends to be one of the more low risk stacks in hockey, and I don’t mind getting some exposure tonight.
NYR2: Artemi Panarin/Ryan Strome/Colin Blackwell
Possible add-on: Jacob Trouba
I thought it was extremely impressive for the Rangers to come within inches of defeating a much better Flyers team even though they were without two of their best players in Adam Fox and Pavel Buchnevich. At the end of the day, you can count on the Panarin/Strome combo to bring their A-game, and their new lineman, Colin Blackwell to bring energy and grit. The matchup as a whole isn’t great, but what makes it a good one is because Philly’s goaltending situation is BAD. Carter Hart has been terrible this season and Brian Elliott isn’t playing with much confidence either. But out of all goalies with two or more starts in the month of March, Hart has the 3rd worst GSAA/60 (-1.95) and Elliott has the 7th worst (-1.36). Not a good situation to be in when both of your goalies are at the bottom o the totem pole.
CGY3: Milan Lucic/Mikael Backlund/Andrew Mangiapane
If you’re wondering why I am not in on Edmonton’s top line today, it’s really because I don’t think they are a GPP winner due to how high owned they’re going to be. I watched what felt like 10 seasons (it was much less) of Los Angeles Kings hockey under Darryl Sutter, and there’s a reason why the man was often quoted saying it’s a “3-2 league”. I expect the Flames to be a much more defense oriented team, and that actually bodes well for both Elias Lindholm’s AND Mikael Backlund’s line. Backlund’s line got the most assignments against EDM2, which I feel is the line you generally want to target against considering RNH’s vanilla history when playing without McDavid and Draisaitl. They’ll be super low owned, and you can get some potential leverage if they can score another goal or two. Obviously the risk is higher anytime you’re playing a 3rd line, so be selective when using them. Probably avoid playing all three unless it’s a big top heavy MME tournament.
PHI1: James van Riemsdyk/Sean Couturier/Joel Farabee
Possible add-on: Ivan Provorov or Shayne Gostisbehere
VAN2: Tanner Pearson/Bo Horvat/Jake Virtanen
Possible add-on: Quinn Hughes or Alex Edler
STL3: Mike Hoffman/Oskar Sundqvist/Jordan Kyrou
Favorite DraftKings Value Plays
Josh Morrissey, D (DK: $4000)
Mikael Backlund, C (DK: $4200)
Dillon Dube, W (DK: $3400)
Jakub Voracek, W (DK: $4100)
Andrew Mangiapane, W (DK: $3400)
Noah Hanifin, D (DK: $2800)
Paul Stastny, C (DK: $3800)
Cody Glass, C (DK: $3400) // if he’s back on VGK1
Favorite FanDuel Value Plays
Mikael Backlund, C (FD: $4300)
Alexander Edler, D (FD: $4200)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C (FD: $4200)
Tanner Pearson, W (FD: $4000)
Cody Glass, C (FD: $3300) // if he’s back on VGK1
Jeff Carter, W (FD: $4200)
Jacob Trouba, D (FD: $3900)
- Marc-Andre Fleury, Golden Knights
- Thatcher Demko, Canucks
- Connor Hellebuyck, Jets
- Jacob Markstrom, Flames
- Mike Smith, Oilers