Today’s NHL GPP Breakdown goes over Sunday’s seven (7) game main slate on DraftKings, which will lock at 5:00 PM ET/2:00 PM PT and the five (5) game main slate on FanDuel, which will lock at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT.
UPDATE (3:05 PM ET): With Thomas Chabot out of the lineup and Stuart Skinner in the lineup, I am going to roll with Mike Reilly as a Core 4 cash play on DraftKings. He’s viable on FD too, but I don’t know if you need to go that cheap at D.
I’m going to be copy/pasting this GPP process for every GPP article that I write this season.
Remember, the concept of playing GPPs is generally the same in all sports. Take some risks. Be a little different. Go for the win. In GPPs, if your lineups are cashing more often than not cashing, you’re probably doing it wrong.
People who have more winning nights than losing nights at GPPs are probably people who don’t take enough risks to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, which tends to be what you want to go for when you’re entering GPP tournaments. If you think doing so is “too risky” then I highly advise for you to stick to cash games.
When it comes to taking the necessary risks to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in these tournaments, you’re going to have to stack. Stacking in NHL means playing 2, 3, or 4 players from the same team who play on the same line (either at even strength or on the power-play).
As a whole, the most common stacks (not including goalie) that you’ll see on DraftKings is probably 4-3-1 or 3-3-2. The most common stacks that you’ll see on FanDuel is probably 4-4 or 4-3-1. Is that the way to go? Not necessarily. The bigger your stacks, the more risk you’re taking, but the bigger the upside. The smaller the stacks, the less risk you’re taking, but it comes with less upside.
The approach I am recommending EVERYONE takes this season is to start with a 3-2-1 stack and go from there. This means entering a 3 man stack, a 2 man stack, and a standalone player (doesn’t matter if it’s a C, W, or D), and then go from there. There’s a lot of different combinations you can go with after those six players are locked in. The possibilities are endless.
I will try to be back in the chat prior to lock, but I can’t make any guarantees. Weekends are tough because it’s the only time I can spend quality time with my daughter in the day time, so sometimes my hands are going to be tied.
Nevertheless, please do your best to keep an eye on lineup changes, including goalie confirmations.
You can keep an eye on late news by looking at our NHL Team Beat Writers lists on Twitter by clicking here.
Stacks to Consider
With 4 lines and 2 power-play units per team, there are a lot of different options. I am listing ten (10) stacks that I think are very much in play tonight. This does not include numerous VIABLE stack options. Please feel free to go outside of these stacks, but I promise you, I’ve narrowed down my list, and I do feel these are my favorite.
*These stacks are listed in order of my early guess at the overall popularity (chalkiness)
EDMPP1: Leon Draisaitl/Connor McDavid/Ryan Nugent-Hopkins/James Neal
Possible add-on: Tyson Barrie (They seem to be flip-flopping a bit on Barrie vs. Nurse on the PP)
Tough not to like Edmonton tonight after witnessing what the Canucks were able to do to Senators throughout that monstrosity of a series. The Oilers top unit has looked a lot better in recent games, and I’m not sure if that’s a coincidence or because “PP1 Alex Chiasson” has been sent to Siberia. They’ll be popular tonight, but rightfully so.
COL1: Mikko Rantanen/Nathan MacKinnon/Gabriel Landeskog
Possible add-on: Cale Makar
I would say the only way COL1 gets contained tonight is if they reunite Ek with Greenway and Foligno, and they continue to do what they did the first few weeks of the season. If that happens, I think that’s the one situation where you might want to have less shares of COL1 than I normally would.
CAR1: Brock McGinn/Sebastian Aho/Andrei Svechnikov
Possible add-on: Dougie Hamilton or Brett Pesce
The Stars certainly started their season with a bang, but that all ended last night thanks to an outstanding performance by the Carolina Hurricanes. The standout line was CAR1, which was forced to come together due to Teravainen being out of the lineup due to COVID protocol. He may be back tonight, and if he is, that’s okay, but I’d be somewhat surprised if he breaks up this top line, which contained DAL1 the entire night and also did a solid job against TB1 on Thursday.
FLA1: Carter Verhaeghe/Aleksander Barkov/Anthony Duclair
Possible add-on: Aaron Ekblad
The big issue with targeting against the Red Wings is that a lot of their lines don’t play with much pace. But one line that will naturally play with reasonable pace is going to be the Larkin line, which was matched up against FLA1 for the majority of Game 1. It was a pretty evenly matched contest, but still a matchup that’s going to present the most scoring chances from either side.
STL1: David Perron/Ryan O’Reilly/Zach Sanford
Possible add-on: Colton Parayko or Torey Krug
STL1 hasn’t had too many great games this season, but they played very well yesterday against the Ducks. They were primarily matched up against Ryan Getzlaf’s top line for most of the night, and they pretty much had possession for most of the night. That doesn’t always end up leading to goals, but in this case, they were able to generate two goals throughout the night. They always somehow have more ownership than STL2, so I’m a little wary of playing them, but with 5 games in play, I do think they have top play upside tonight.
CBJ1: Nick Foligno/Alexandre Texier/Oliver Bjorkstrand
Possible add-on: Zach Werenski
There really wasn’t a lot to like about the Blue Jackets/Hawks game on Friday, but Oliver Bjorkstrand definitely made his presence known, and was able to drive all of the production that the Blue Jackets needed to get the W. It should be noted that Hawks practice was cancelled yesterday due to a positive COVID test. There’s a reasonable chance that this game will be postponed, so please stay posted.
STL2: Jaden Schwartz/Brayden Schenn/Jordan Kyrou
Possible add-on: Torey Krug
Jordan Kyrou is really, really good and not many people know about it. Well, then again, I suppose they could know just by looking at the recent box scores which he has been absolutely lighting up. He has basically forced his coaches hand, and now gets minutes on the power-play. His line with Schenn and Schwartz has been consistently good. My only real issues with them tonight is just the possibility that they could be higher owned then I’m assuming, and the fact that the Ducks could end up putting their checking line out there every time they hit the ice (main issue is they slow down the pace significantly).
OTT1: Brady Tkachuk/Josh Norris/Connor Brown
Possible add-on: Thomas Chabot (if he plays) or Mike Reilly (if Chabot doesn’t)
Brady Tkachuk is going to put together a crazy performance at some point. He had been LEADING THE LEAGUE in high-danger scoring chances, and is also going absolutely mentally insane dealing with this losing streak. It’s not going to be easy, but if Ottawa scores some goals, I would be very, very surprised if Brady Tkachuk didn’t have something to do with it.
ANA2 Danton Heinen/Adam Henrique/Jakub Silfverberg
Possible add-on: Kevin Shattenkirk
This play is largely contingent on Ville Husso starting over Jordan Binnington. Husso has been a hot mess in his 76 minutes and 51 seconds of action this season, and if anything, it shows that he is a considerable drop off compared to the Blues #1 goalie. If we attack him, my favorite way to attack him is with ANA2. With Getzlaf a shell of his former self, I don’t know if it matters that he’s playing with Rakell and Jones. I think Heinen, Henrique, and Silfverberg are the most complete line on the Ducks roster and are the most likely to make an impact tonight.
MIN1: Kirill Kaprizov/Joel Eriksson-Ek/Marcus Johansson
Possible add-on: Jared Spurgeon or Ryan Suter
Something tells me that it’s a bit unlikely that we’ll see Philipp Grubauer on back to back nights. If that’s the case, it’d be silly to ignore the Wild just because they were awful last night against the Avs. If that’s the case, I also want whatever line Joel Eriksson-Ek is on. He’s the one Wild player who was able to generate much of anything last night, and with Kevin Fiala’s suspension, he even got elevated to the top power-play unit. I don’t know if this line will remain intact because I think changes are bound to be made, but we’ll follow Ek wherever he goes.
UPDATE: Hunter Miska is in, so this play is definitely going to roll.
GPP Goalie Pool
James Reimer, Hurricanes
Elvis Merzlikins or Joonas Korpisalo, Blue Jackets
Chris Driedger, Panthers
Kevin Lankinen, Blackhawks
John Gibson, Ducks
Cam Talbot, Wild
Favorite Individual Plays
Top Studs: Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Brady Tkachuk (this is probably considered bold)
Top Defensemen: Cale Makar (in his own tier), then Ivan Provorov/Zach Werenski
Top DraftKings Values below $4k: Jordan Kyrou, Mattias Janmark, Brandon Saad, Mike Reilly, Jonas Brodin
Top FanDuel Values below $5k: Joel Eriksson-Ek, Carter Verhaeghe, Jordan Kyrou, Darnell Nurse, Noah Dobson
DraftKings: Nathan MacKinnon,
Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jordan Kyrou, Cale Makar, Mike Reilly
FanDuel: Nathan MacKinnon, Jordan Kyrou, Brady Tkachuk, Cale Makar
Note: You can add Connor McDavid to the mix too, but similar to most Core 4’s, I’m going to just stick with one high end player to help limit the headaches for construction.