Today’s NHL GPP Breakdown goes over Sunday’s Seven (7) game slate, which will lock at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT.
Remember, the concept of playing GPPs is generally the same in all sports. Take some risks. Be a little different. Go for the win. In GPPs, if your lineups are cashing more often than not cashing, you’re probably doing it wrong.
People who have more winning nights than losing nights at GPPs are probably people who don’t take enough risks to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, which tends to be what you want to go for when you’re entering GPP tournaments. If you think doing so is “too risky” then I highly advise for you to stick to cash games.
When it comes to taking the necessary risks to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in these tournaments, you’re going to have to stack. Stacking in NHL means playing 2, 3, or 4 players from the same team who play on the same line (either at even strength or on the power-play).
As a whole, the most common stacks (not including goalie) that you’ll see on DraftKings is probably 4-3-1 or 3-3-2. The most common stacks that you’ll see on FanDuel is probably 4-4 or 4-3-1. Is that the way to go? Not necessarily. The bigger your stacks, the more risk you’re taking, but the bigger the upside. The smaller the stacks, the less risk you’re taking, but it comes with less upside.
The approach I am recommending EVERYONE takes this season is to start with a 3-2-1 stack and go from there. This means entering a 3 man stack, a 2 man stack, and a standalone player (doesn’t matter if it’s a C, W, or D), and then go from there. There’s a lot of different combinations you can go with after those six players are locked in. The possibilities are endless.
I will try to be back in the chat prior to lock, but I can’t make any guarantees. Weekends are tough because it’s the only time I can spend quality time with my daughter in the day time, so sometimes my hands are going to be tied.
Nevertheless, please do your best to keep an eye on lineup changes, including goalie confirmations.
You can keep an eye on late news by looking at our NHL Team Beat Writers lists on Twitter by clicking here.
Stacks to Consider
With 4 lines and 2 power-play units per team, there are a lot of different options. I am listing ten (10) stacks that I think are very much in play tonight. This does not include numerous VIABLE stack options. Please feel free to go outside of these stacks, but I promise you, I’ve narrowed down my list, and I do feel these are my favorite.
*These stacks are listed in order of my early guess at the overall popularity (chalkiness)
COL1: Mikko Rantanen/Nathan MacKinnon/Gabriel Landeskog
Possible add-on: Cale Makar or Devon Toews
Do you believe that Nic Deslauriers, Derek Grant, Carter Rowney, Hampus Lindholm, and Kevin Shattenkirk have the ability to completely sustain Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, and Devon Toews? If that answer is yes, then I think you should probably reexamine your NHL process. For whatever reason, these 10 players shared the ice for more than 2/3’s of their even strength shifts on Friday night, and well, COL1 dominated for close to a 70 percent CF%, scoring one goal and generating FIVE high-danger scoring chances. I would say the end result of what took place on Friday would be the worst case scenario if you looked at the underlying stats. MacKinnon and company should have scored more than 1 5v5 goal, and when you considering they generated 13 high-danger chances in ALL situations. John Gibson is a great goaltender who deserves so much praise then he gets. COL1 should be popular tonight, but I don’t really care. I’m in.
WPG1: Kyle Connor/Mark Scheifele/Blake Wheeler
Possible add-on: Josh Morrissey
I know it’s a back-to-back situation, but I do think the right side to be on is Winnipeg. This has been a relatively even matchup in years past, but I am not exactly liking what I’ve been seeing from the Oilers this season from a defensive standpoint. On top of that, I feel Leon Draisaitl has looked significantly off (yes, he scored on Friday, but it was off a lazy lazy lazy PP mistake by the Leafs), and I think it shows considering the newly formed TOR2 line led by Alex Kerfoot was able to sustain Draisaitl’s line the entire game. My feeling is that Andrew Copp, Paul Stastny, and Nikolaj Ehlers will match up against McDavid’s line the majority of the night, which will leave WPG1 to face Draisaitl.
NYI1: Anders Lee/Mathew Barzal/Jordan Eberle
The Islanders top line had their breakout game of the season in Game 1 of this series, but the series does shift to a Devils home game tonight (for whatever reason). While NYI1 didn’t exactly dominate the entire game, I am not too sure if there’s a line on the Devils roster that has the ability to sustain the Islanders’ best trio throughout the game without great goaltending, and great goaltending is going to be pretty unlikely knowing that MacKenzie Blackwood is going to be out of the lineup again due to being placed on the COVID list. Scott Wedgewood just isn’t it and Eric Comrie is the same.
DALPP1: Denis Gurianov/Joe Pavelski/Roope Hintz/Jamie Benn/John Klingberg
I don’t necessarily know if I’ll have too many shares here, but when a team scores FIVE power-play goals in a game, you’re gonna have to take notice. Last season, I always felt like the power-play line that featured Denis Gurianov consistently looked like the better unit, and well, I’m not sure if it’s a coincidence, but the Stars power-play unit looked damn good on Friday. You can consider getting exposure to them if you’re doing a lot of lineups, because the upside is clearly there. For what it’s worth, I do think Nashville rebounds. They can’t possibly perform worse than they did on Friday.
NYR2: Artemi Panarin/Ryan Strome/Pavel Buchnevich
Possible add-on: Adam Fox
This trio was actually able to control the possession game against every line they faced on Friday, and I think they should be able to get past the hump tonight in Game 2 against the Penguins. The Penguins have had to deal with some subpar goaltending from both Tristian Jarry and Casey DeSmith and there hasn’t been any signs that would suggest that trend changing anytime soon (it probably will change eventually though).
STL2: Jaden Schwartz/Brayden Schenn/Jordan Kyrou
Possible add-on: Justin Faulk or Torey Krug
These guys have looked like the best line for the Blues since they were placed together in Game 3 of the season. They haven’t had much luck when it comes to scoring, but my money is on them coming through tonight against Jonathan Quick and the Kings. The Kings are not as bad as most would assume, but outside of the Kopitar line, they’re going to struggle containing their opponents on most nights because they are incredibly young and inexperienced throughout their lineup, and Jonathan Quick is a shell of his former self. Schenn’s line will largely avoid Kopitar’s line, and will usually match up against the Kings 2nd or 3rd lines, which will play with a little more pace than LA1 as well.
LA1: Alex Iafallo/Anze Kopitar/Adrian Kempe
Possible add-on: Drew Doughty
If the Kings win this game, they’re going to do so because Ville Husso isn’t a very good goalie (though, it could be Binnington on a back-to-back), and because the Kings top line is pretty damn good. Anze Kopitar would be an absolute superstar if he played in Canada
NSH2: Mikael Granlund/Matt Duchene/Luke Kunin
Possible add-on: Roman Josi OR Ryan Ellis
I know you guys are probably thinking, HELL NO when it comes to Nashville, but outside of their terrible special teams performance, they absolutely dominated the Stars at 5v5, and were led by their 2nd line, which welcomed Mikael Granlund back to the lineup. When I say “led”, I truly mean it because they generated four high-danger scoring chances at 5v5 play and definitely should have been rewarded for it if it wasn’t for the stellar play by Anton Khudobin. While Duchene and Granlund have experience together, Kunin is a new face who was one of the unsung heroes in Minnesota the last few years. I think they have a chance to be very productive as a line, and I think they get on the scoreboard in some shape or form tonight.
MIN1: Kevin Fiala/Nick Bonino/Marcus Johansson
Possible add-on: Matt Dumba
Not gonna be a popular play considering how unproductive Kevin Fiala has been, but the leverage we have in a very favorable spot is pretty tough to pass up. They’re going o have virtually zero ownership, and even Fiala is getting overlooked even though he is clearly the team’s biggest scoring threat, and is still the biggest part of the team’s top power-play unit, albeit, terrible power-play unit. That’s going to eventually change, I PROMISE, and a lot of that is going to be due to Fiala’s skill. If you think going with the entire line is too dangerous, then please do go with a mini stack.
MIN3: Jordan Greenway/Joel Eriksson-Ek/Marcus Foligno
Possible add-on: Ryan Suter
I wish I had the nerve to make Eriksson-Ek a Core 4 play on Friday, but I just couldn’t do it. I had him in my lineup though and he almost saved me after that miserable performance by Juuse Saros and the Predators, but just missed out. It’s clear that Eriksson-Ek has a more elevated role this season thanks to Mikko Koivu FINALLY leaving, and Eric Staal getting shipped out. You could make the argument that he has been the team’s best two-way center the last two seasons, but he’d just never get a realistic opportunity to do anything noteworthy on offense. He now gets power-play time, and his line with Greenway and Foligno gets matched up with the oppositions top line, which gives all three of these guys a ton of ice time, which can often result to an empty-net goal like we saw on Friday.
GPP Goalie Pool
John Gibson (high-risk)
Scott Wedgewood (super high-risk)
Favorite Individual Plays
Top Studs: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Kyle Connor
Top Defensemen: Brent Burns, Roman Josi/Ryan Ellis, Adam Fox
Top DraftKings Values below $4k: Mikael Granlund, Adrian Kempe, Andrew Copp, Ryan Donato, Jared Spurgeon, Noah Dobson
Top FanDuel Values below $5k: Joel Eriksson-Ek, Ryan Donato, Andrew Copp, Jordan Kyrou, Adam Fox, Matt Dumba
DraftKings: Nathan MacKinnon, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Mikael Granlund, Noah Dobson
FanDuel: Nathan MacKinnon, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Brayden Schenn, Adam Fox