Today’s NHL GPP Breakdown goes over Monday’s nine (9) game main slate, which will lock at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT.
UPDATE (5:55 PM ET): There have been a few line updates, so please check out everything in RED below.
I’m going to be copy/pasting this GPP process for every GPP article that I write this season.
Remember, the concept of playing GPPs is generally the same in all sports. Take some risks. Be a little different. Go for the win. In GPPs, if your lineups are cashing more often than not cashing, you’re probably doing it wrong.
People who have more winning nights than losing nights at GPPs are probably people who don’t take enough risks to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, which tends to be what you want to go for when you’re entering GPP tournaments. If you think doing so is “too risky” then I highly advise for you to stick to cash games.
When it comes to taking the necessary risks to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in these tournaments, you’re going to have to stack. Stacking in NHL means playing 2, 3, or 4 players from the same team who play on the same line (either at even strength or on the power-play).
As a whole, the most common stacks (not including goalie) that you’ll see on DraftKings is probably 4-3-1 or 3-3-2. The most common stacks that you’ll see on FanDuel is probably 4-4 or 4-3-1. Is that the way to go? Not necessarily. The bigger your stacks, the more risk you’re taking, but the bigger the upside. The smaller the stacks, the less risk you’re taking, but it comes with less upside.
The approach I am recommending EVERYONE takes this season is to start with a 3-2-1 stack and go from there. This means entering a 3 man stack, a 2 man stack, and a standalone player (doesn’t matter if it’s a C, W, or D), and then go from there. There’s a lot of different combinations you can go with after those six players are locked in. The possibilities are endless.
Please be sure to keep an eye on late news by looking at our NHL Team Beat Writers lists on Twitter by clicking here.
Before I go through my favorite stacks of the day, let’s take a close look at the updated Pace of Play chart.
There’s a lot of things to unpack from this chart. It’s good to watch a lot of games without even looking at these types of advanced statistics because you go into it knowing beforehand how bad of a pace a team might play at. And yes, I am definitely referring to the Detroit Red Wings. Their games are SLOWWW paced and tends to feature a whole lot of nothing.
On the other hand, it’s also interesting to see teams like Ottawa, Montreal, and Edmonton at the very top of the list, because those three teams have all played against each other in recent weeks, and they haven’t exactly resulted in 10+ goal totals. So, with that said, let’s look at the pace of play over the last two weeks of play.
With these stats, we definitely need to be wary of the first two teams on the list, the Devils and Sabres, who have each only played one game, but it’s also interesting to see the Leafs of all teams on the bottom of the list, and two teams that tend to be targeted a good amount in DFS in the Lightning and Panthers also towards the bottom of this list. On the other hand, the Bruins are a team that has definitely been much more aggressive in recent weeks.
Stacks to Consider
With 4 lines and 2 power-play units per team, there are a lot of different options. I am listing ten (10) stacks that I think are very much in play today This does not include numerous VIABLE stack options. Please feel free to go outside of these stacks, but I promise you, I’ve narrowed down my list, and I do feel these are my favorite.
*These stacks are listed in order of my early guess at the overall popularity (chalkiness)
Zach Hyman Joe Thornton/Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner
Possible add-on: Morgan Rielly
Something tells me the Leafs top line are going to be out for revenge against the Senators, who upset the Maple Leafs the last time these two teams faced each other. Matthews had his worst game of the season against the Senators, failing to score a point (the only game this season where he has failed to score a point), but the odds of that happening tonight feels like slim to none. The only downside of playing this line is that they will undoubtedly be popular. You’re not gaining any leverage from playing them; though, they will likely be good chalk. Add the fact that the Leafs will be getting a crack at Hogberg in net, it makes me really think that this will end up being good chalk. Hogberg has the worst GSAA in the league among those with more than two starts.
UPDATE: Thornton being back does not help this stack, so I’m more likely going to want to stick with just Marner and Matthews if I do go with TOR1. In fact, Matthews as a standalone option could more more in play.
EDM1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins/Connor McDavid/Jesse Puljujarvi
Possible add-on: Tyson Barrie
Nikolaj Ehlers Blake Wheeler/Mark Scheifele/Andrew Copp
Possible add-on: Josh Morrissey
The Jets and Oilers have played two games against each other this season, and they were both high scoring affairs. While the Jets are coming off of a lackluster performance against the Senators, I am going to continue to bank on Nik Ehlers and Andrew Copp to come through against the Oilers. The last time they faced the Oilers, Copp put together four points (two goals) on six shots while Ehlers put together four points (one goal) on three shots. Pierre-Luc Dubois will likely be out for tonight’s contest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this line breaks up, and Ehlers and Copp end up getting placed on their own line without Scheifele, so keep a close eye on the Jets beat writers.
The Oilers are coming off of a couple of solid performances in Ottawa and Montreal, but call me a skeptic, because I don’t really believe they’re a team that’s going to allow just one goal per game. The one source of consistency for the Oilers is their top line featuring McDavid with Nugent-Hopkins and Puljujarvi, but lately, their solid performances haven’t exactly resulted in a lot of goals or favorable DFS performances, but the numbers suggest that things will go their way eventually. In fact, Jesse Puljujarvi is having a heck of a time on the top line, leading all Oilers in high-danger scoring chances.
UPDATE: Wheeler is replacing Ehlers on the top line, which should be fine. I think this actually helps Copp/Scheifele out a bit more since Wheeler is most definitely a pass first forward.
CHI1: Alex DeBrincat/Pius Suter/Patrick Kane
Possible add-on: Duncan Keith
I’m not going to worry too much about the Hawks top line facing the slow-paced Red Wings. CHI1 had to face a relatively slow-paced Columbus team in their last series and were still able to produce. I picture CHI1 running around in circles against the Red Wings tonight. They’ll be one of my favorite targets.
DAL2: Denis Gurianov/Roope Hintz/Jason Robertson
The Predators looked like the inferior team in their previous series this weekend against the Detroit Red Wings. If they’re going to have a tough time against the NHL’s worse, they’re going to continue to struggle against teams like the Stars. While most Stars ownership might gravitate towards Benn and Pavelski, I feel the best way to get exposure to Dallas is their 2nd line featuring two standouts on their top power-play unit in Denis Gurianov and Roope Hintz. When at home, the Stars usually match up their opposition’s top line against Comeau and Cogliano, so you can bank on Hintz and Gurianov to get some very favorable line matchups (the NSH bottom six have struggled defensively) and zone starts throughout the night. Keep in mind though, Hintz is going to be a game-time decision. I am largely off of this play if Hintz is out, and would probably have to lean on Benn/Pavelski for Dallas exposure if that’s the case.
NYI3: Oliver Wahlstrom/Jean-Gabriel Pageau/Leo Komarov
The Sabres haven’t played a game in over two weeks. Not sure what our expectations of them are in that type of scenario, but I don’t necessarily like the spot they’re in tonight. The problem is that the Islanders have underachieved heavily and their top two lines are underperforming. If I had to choose a line there, I would go with NYI1 with the Barzal/Lee combo, but they have definitely had a rough go as of late. NYI2 with Brock Nelson has also had a rough time most of the season. Why am I leaning on NYI3 here? I think they have a good shot at taking advantage of Buffalo’s depth lines (they are on the road, and BUF1/2 are unlikely to match up against them), and they looked outstanding against the Bruins a few nights ago. I would not play them as a full line stack unless you’re doing the large field MME tournaments, but I don’t mind going with a nice mini-stack with Pageau as the focal point for some differentiation AND salary relief.
VAN1: J.T. Miller/Elias Petterson/Brock Boeser
Possible add-on: Quinn Hughes
*Only playing this if we get word that David Rittich is in net
UPDATE: Rittich is not in net, so I am largely off of this play.
CGY1: Johnny Gaudreau/Sean Monahan/Sam Bennett
Possible add-on: Rasmus Andersson
SJ2: Timo Meier/Tomas Hertl/Rudolfs Balcers
Possible add-on: Brent Burns
TB2: Mathieu Joseph/Tyler Johnson/
Blake Coleman Alex Killorn
Possible add-on: Ryan McDonagh
Still like Coleman as a standalone or cash though.
GPP Goalie Pool
Here are the goalies who I think have the biggest upside
- Jacob Markstrom
- Curtis McElhinney
- Freddie Andersen
- Linus Ullmark
- Chris Driedger
Favorite Individual Plays
Top Studs: Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Patrick Kane/Alex DeBrincat
Top Defensemen: Roman Josi, Brent Burns, Morgan Rielly
Top DraftKings Values below $4k: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mathieu Joseph, Blake Coleman, Frank Vatrano, Max Comtois, Evan Bouchard
Top FanDuel Values below $5k: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Timo Meier, Jesse Puljujarvi, Max Comtois, Mikhail Sergachev, Josh Morrissey