DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!
Make sure you tune into the MLB NOW Livestream at 5pm eastern with Vlad and Scott for the latest news and thoughts leading up to lock!
This article will have three parts; 1) Pitching Breakdown, 2) Stack Breakdown, 3) Favorite Hitters by position, and then some hot takes at the bottom.
*Please be aware that this article is based on tonight’s 11 game main slate that has a roster lock of 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT.
Tier 1: The Core Pitchers (these are pitchers who will be in majority of my lineups)
- Zach Wheeler (DK: $8800/FD: $8800) – The Rays have been very strikeout prone throughout the season, but somehow, those already high strikeout numbers have elevated even more over the last couple weeks. Over the last two weeks, the Rays have struck out a league high 31.4% of the time. With the Phillies motivated to win this game, I think Wheeler’s an easy choice to be my number one.
Tier 2: Not Quite Core Pitchers
- Aaron Civale (DK: $8500/FD: $9600) – Civale’s had an outstanding 2020 season but it cannot be forgotten that his best start of this stellar year was a complete game against the Pirates when he allowed just one run and five hits over nine innings. Unfortunately, I do think he’s not necessarily the best value considering he doesn’t have the highest K-upside, but it certainly helps that he’s going to be free to throw a ton of pitches.
- Brandon Woodruff (DK: $8700/FD: $9300) – Woodruff has been able to piggyback his breakout 2019 campaign with a very solid 2020 campaign where he’s actually missing more bats than before (13.1% swinging strike rate vs. 11.6%) and throwing more first pitch strikes (66.9% first pitch strike rate vs. 61.1%). The Brewers are in must win mode so Devin Williams and Josh Hader will be ready to close things out if Woodruff can give them 5-7 solid innings.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers
- Luis Castillo (DK: $9800/FD: $10400) – I love Castillo in this spot, but have to hold back a bit because I am not confident that he’s going to throw his normal share of pitches. The Reds are now locked into the playoffs and I don’t really trust Castillo getting his normal work load. He will be very very popular though and I do feel you should have some sort of exposure here one way or another.
- German Marquez (DK: $7700/FD: $8900) – Certainly more of a DK play than a FD play as he’s super overpriced on FD. With a severe lack of quality affordable SP2 options tonight, we have to take serious looks at guys with major flaws in the sub $8k range. While his 2020 has not gone too well, he remains a much better pitcher away from Coors, and people tend to overlook that. Still very wary though. He has been crushed by the D-Backs throughout his career and his 21% k/rate throughout this down year may not be a good fit against a team that hasn’t struck out as much lately (6th lowest over the last 2 weeks).
- Joe Musgrove (DK: $6700/$8400) – September Musgrove might just be a thing. September has been the best month throughout Musgrove’s young career and it has largely influenced season long players, like myself, to target this ****** way too often once February and March comes around. His 27.3% k/rate in September is well above his 22% career numbers across five seasons. That 22% is actually a little skewed because JM has sneakily put together a ridiculous 31.7% k/rate over 32 2/3 innings this season. If you need a cheap SP2, he might just be my favorite cheap option tonight.
Tier 1: The Core Stacks
- Philadelphia Phillies – Gonna say this one with my chest. The Phillies are one of the best teams in the Majors against lefties, putting together a .359 wOBA, .222 ISO, and .839 OPS against southpaws. Ryan Yarbrough is good enough to steal away ownership (and he will), but gives up enough contact where I’m comfortable being overexposed to a Phillies team that has massive upside. Bryce Harper, in my opinion, has to be in your Phillies lineups. He has crushed similar soft tossing lefties throughout the season, including homering off of J.A. Happ and Robbie Erlin.
Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stacks
- Chicago White Sox – If the White Sox expect to make a deep run this year, their bats are going to have to warm up. They’ve lost six consecutive games while scoring four runs or less in all six games. With that said, I am in on them today because of matchup, and overall upside. They crushed Lester earlier this season and have been solid against southpaws throughout the year (2nd in wOBA/wRC+ and 5th in HR).
- Kansas City Royals – I have zero and I mean zero trust in Matthew Boyd. His lack of command is something we’ve seen from him throughout his career, and he’s always someone that has given up his share of long balls. For whatever reason, this season has been more disastrous than ever, to the point where he is allowing a 2.32 HR/9 to go with his career worst 11.6% barrel rate and 39.6% hard hit rate. Play Salvador Perez. Play Maikel Franco.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks
- Los Angeles Angels – The Angels were sadly eliminated from the playoff picture after blowing a lead even though they were able to produce a handful of runs with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Still, you’ve got to like the overall production from the Halos over the last few weeks, and they should still be motivated to take these last two games against their crosstown rivals.
- Colorado Rockies – Targeting against Luke Weaver has been profitable throughout the year and I’m not going to backoff because of the team that’s facing him tonight. The Rockies have sucked as much as Weaver has sucked but the younger guys who are playing now like Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon, and Josh Fuentes, and even a “veteran” in Kevin Pillar have all been able to make the most out of their opportunities in recent weeks. Going to have a little exposure here. Rockies should have less than 5% ownership, so if they smash, it’s going to be glorious.
FADE DISCLAIMER: Yes, play Astros if you wish, but I am going to largely fade them outside of a few one offs due to likely high ownership.
Top Players By Position
- Salvador Perez
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Will Smith
- Austin Romine
- Freddie Freeman
- Anthony Rizzo
- Jose Abreu
- Josh Fuentes
- Ryan McMahon
- Chris Taylor (SS on FD)
- Jean Segura
- Harold Castro (3B/OF on DK)
- Alec Bohm (also 1B on DK)
- Jose Ramirez
- Maikel Franco
- Edwin Rios
- Corey Seager
- Trevor Story
- Adalberto Mondesi
- Tim Anderson
- Bryce Harper
- Marcell Ozuna
- Mookie Betts
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Kevin Pillar
- Andrew McCutchen
- George Springer
- Luis Robert
- Michael Brantley
- Roman Quinn
- Raimel Tapia
- Edward Olivares
MLB GPP Hot Takes
Highest Scoring Hitter: Freddie Freeman
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Zack Wheeler
Biggest Bust Hitter: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Tony Gonsolin
Top Value Play: Alec Bohm
Slate Edge: Bryce Harper