Kenneth Le goes over his cash game thought process as he goes player-by-player in his FanDuel cash game lineup review.
Remember, throughout the season, I am going to be playing cash games on either DraftKings or FanDuel, and I will break down my thought process when deciding which players to roster in my lineup.
It should be noted that I am a big believer in playing only on one site when it comes to cash games. When I first started playing DFS, I used to be the guy who would play on four different sites on every slate, and I quickly realized that I can easily cash on one site, but not cash on the other, which makes everything a wash. When you consider how high the rake is on the big sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, you can easily understand that going 1-for-2 in your cash games is going to be detrimental in the long run. I definitely want to point out that this does not include player-friendly sites like SuperDraft, where the rake is much lower, bonuses are bigger, and where you’ll sometimes even see overlay.
Lots of momentum going into what is arguably the last orderly week of the 2020. I say that with a chuckle just because it has seemed like every single week of DFS NFL has included a bunch of curveballs, and this week was nothing short of Clayton Kershaw over-the-top hooks. Late Saturday night, we found out that ALL of the Cleveland Browns wide receivers would be out of the game due to COVID contact tracing. That situation alone made me make four changes to my lineup that may or may not have panned out for me. But enough of that, let’s see how I did!
Through the power of FantasyCruncher, I can provide you with the lineup that I was going to go with:
And yes, that lineup would have put me with 126.26 points, which “Hurts” badly (no pun intended). The main reason why I decided to pivot was because I felt so strongly about Chubb after the Browns WR news, and I was already thinking that Ekeler didn’t make sense as a super chalk play. At the end of the day, that pivot can be simply considered “rash” and something I should not have done without fully thinking it through. I’ll explain as I go position-by-position.
The range of cash lines throughout my Single-Entry $1 to $25 100 player 50/50 contests were between 118.56 and 123.82. I would say that the majority of the cash lines were around 121 and 122. I feel there were a few different lineup trains going, but the biggest one was at 118.22, which did not cash any of the contests that I was in.
Quarterback: Jalen Hurts ($8200)
Hurts has been a fantasy football gold mine since he took over the reigns of the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback position, and was going to be in a great situation against a Cowboys defense that has been disjointed all season long. While Mahomes was a great option, I felt the floors of Watson and Hurts were both very high, and given the importance of getting the more dependable names in at RB and WR, it was an easy call to go with either Watson or Hurts.
With Mahomes and the Chiefs having an off game, this was certainly a perfectly fine play.
Other QB’s considered: Patrick Mahomes ($9400, 20.22 points scored), Deshaun Watson ($8500, 26.76 points scored), Mitch Trubisky ($7200, 24.6 points scored)
Running Back: David Montgomery ($7800)
I thought Montgomery was a lock button play given the matchup against a Jaguars run defense that we have targeted against week after week after week. Monty’s price tag may have been bumped up, but it wasn’t nearly enough to prevent him from being chalk. This play didn’t exactly impact much given his overall chalkiness.
Other RB’s considered: Miles Sanders ($7300, 16.4 points scored), Austin Ekeler ($7000, 14.3 points scored), David Johnson ($6700, 27.4 points scored)
Running Back: Le’Veon Bell ($6400)
This was an absolute mistake that I should have been more careful with. With no Clyde Edwards-Helaire, I felt really strongly about Bell paying off today against this consistently bad Falcons defense. I figured it was pretty much a lock for him to see his 15+ touches that he got against the Saints. Unfortunately, somehow, someway, Darrel Williams came out of nowhere to outsnap Bell and even outproduce Bell thanks to his involvement in the passing game. If I had to do it over again, I definitely wouldn’t because I now know that it’s probably a big mistake to think that any Andy Reid running back is going to get 80% of the snaps at this point.
Wide Receiver: Calvin Ridley ($8500)
Ridley has been a monster throughout the season and has come on especially well over his last few games. He had seen 26 targets over his last two games, which resulted in 18 receptions for 287 yards and 2 touchdowns. With the game script likely calling for the Falcons to throw the ball a lot, I figured he was going to be in line for another huge game. Unfortunately, this game was close throughout, and the Falcons were even leading AGAIN in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs also did a good job at containing Ridley (for the most part), which kept his targets below 10 for the first time in awhile.
Other WR’s considered: Tyreek Hill ($9400, 8.5 points scored), Brandin Cooks ($7000, 23.6 points scored), Cooper Kupp ($6800, 10.6 points scored), Diontae Johnson ($6700, 17.7 points scored), Tee Higgins ($5800, 18.9 points scored), Darnell Mooney ($5400, 6.1 points scored)
Wide Receiver: Allen Robinson ($7800)
When putting together my lineup, I would say that Robinson was my biggest lock thanks to his salary and revenge narrative situation against the Jaguars. With it being a must win game for the Bears and a must lose game for the Jaguars, it made too much sense for A-Rob to get ALL of the targets. That certainly appeared to be the case throughout the game and when it was all said and done thanks to 10 receptions on 13 targets for 103 yards. Very happy with my play here, even though those receptions aren’t going to be as important on FanDuel compared to DraftKings.
Wide Receiver: Marvin Hall ($4900)
This was arguably my worst play of the day. In order to make everything fit, I needed to go super cheap somewhere, and I felt Marvin Hall would be able to come through as a $4900 “WR1” thanks to the COVID situation in Cleveland. Most of the time I was flip flopping between Tee Higgins at $5800 and Darnell Mooney at $5400 as my cheap WR3. Even though I felt good about Higgins and Mooney, I felt very flexible with going cheaper if it led to a significant upgrade to my lineup. While my brain convinced me that Chubb was a big upgrade over Ekeler, I think my brain pretty much failed me here because the sacrifices made to accomplish getting Chubb in my lineup were a bit ridiculous. Marvin Hall was not it and should never have really been considered given the risk involved.
Tight End: Donald Parham Jr. ($4200)
With Hunter Henry out of the lineup, we knew that Parham would be the guy getting the looks at TE for Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Parham was in my lineup pretty early on in my builds thanks to what I was able to fit in my lineups with him in there compared to just about everyone else. This type of sacrifice wasn’t as big of a deal to me since he had a solid matchup on a day where Keenan Allen was unlikely to play, and I didn’t think any of the options outside of Kelce really had a huge floor to begin with.
Other TE’s considered: Travis Kelce ($8500, 18.8 points scored), Logan Thomas ($6000, 9.8 points scored), Jordan Akins ($5100, 5.9 points scored)
Flex: Nick Chubb ($9000)
Yeah, Chubb did outperform Ekeler and probably should have performed better than he did; however, it probably wasn’t enough to absorb the $2000 difference in salary and the changes throughout my lineup. In my eyes, Chubb’s production was an absolute lock while Ekeler’s still had a pretty wide range of outcomes. He’s also constantly getting touchdown vultured and is highly reliant on a passing game that isn’t always there. Well, the Browns offense was considerably awful thanks to the lack of playmaking wide receivers on the field, and even Chubb got vultured by Kareem Hunt for a touchdown, and remained on the sidelines late in the game when the Browns were trying a desperation come back.
Defense/Special Teams: Cincinnati Bengals ($3200)
I was not a big fan of any particular defense this week, and it shows considering I actually gave a long look at the Jets after hearing about the Browns WR situation. The chalk play and the play I had most of the time was the Chargers defense against a turnover prone Broncos team, but again, I pivoted to the Bengals after making my Chubb concessions. Not necessarily the biggest difference in result, but 5 points can still make a big impact on most weeks.
Other D/ST’s considered: Los Angeles Chargers ($3700, 7 points scored), New York Jets ($3000, 9 points scored)
There’s just one more week in the regular season and the goal is to finish on a positive note. I’ll definitely be looking to put all the things I’ve learned throughout the season, including this past week, into good use, and make some money!