Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate!
KBO DFS – Sunday, June 28, 2020
Welcome to the Sunday, June 28 KBO DFS Breakdown.
Not going to sugarcoat it – this slate is a lot less straightforward than yesterday’s where our boy C.Jung from the late-night Chat Room hung 38 DKP and quite literally got us into the green on his own. It always starts with the pitchers, and tonight’s best arms have the toughest matchups, which is why there is less clarity on the slate. This will help keep ownership spread out a bit more evenly across the board and allows us to truly pounce on our competition if we starkly see an edge that we can exploit. Because of the expected volatility, I’m going to scale back on cash games and single entries while taking a shot with more entries than usual in the $15 GPP on DK mixing it up with lower-percentage stacks. There is no clear chalk tonight with pitchers or hitters so you’ll see a lot of folks ‘playing it safe’ with Brooks – Despaigne – LG Twins bats – Rojas. Let’s start by taking a look at current records, run production and Vegas totals.
KIA TIGERS vs. KIWOOM HEROES
Lowest combined run total of the night means we will see very few offensive guys from either team outside of large-field GPP stacks. The Heroes might be without shortstop Kim Ha-seong which would bode well for SP Brooks. Loved the Heroes last night but going to go with the chalk on Brooks and not prioritize Kiwoom bats.
Tigers won’t be popular at all but you can get their cleanup hitter Choi Hyun-woo at a discount and he’s a nice play tonight. Heroes’ pitcher Choi Won-tae has been very middle-of-the-road (4.18 ERA, 4.46 FIP) and his amazing 2019 (3.38 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 0.29 HR/9) is an anomaly in his five-year career.
KT WIZ vs. HANWHA EAGLES
You will see the Wiz among the more popular stacks tonight with Mel Rojas Jr. carrying top-three offensive ownership on the slate. You may want to be careful with stud 20-year-old Kang Baek-ho tonight. Though the lefty he faces tonight in Chad Bell has not been good this year, Kang has drastic splits against lefties (21% HH, .143 ISO, .250 AVG) in relation to versus righties (38% HH, .427 ISO, .390 AVG).
The Eagles’ lefty bats could work in a large-field GPP entry if you believe that June Despaigne will show up tonight (more on that below). They will be all single-digit ownership as Despaigne will easily be among the highest-owned pitchers tonight.
LG TWINS vs. SK WYVERNS
The Twins should be the chalkiest stack of the night as they face Kim Joo-han of the Wyverns. Fine with their key pieces in cash but I think it’s a night to get a little contrarian in GPPs. Roberto Ramos has to break out of his slump at some point. He’s hitting .237 with no homers in his last 10 games.
No interest in the Wyverns tonight and I’d venture to guess we’ll see between 15 to 20% ownership on the Twins’ pitcher Lim Chan-gyu tonight. Choi Jeong would be the closest thing to a one-off here as he’s their best all-around hitter and has been crushing balls in this league for well over a decade.
NC DINOS vs. DOOSAN BEARS
Dinos are my sneaky stack of the night as they’ll be under 10% ownership collectively for the first time in recent memory. Chris Flexen has been absolutely splendid this year and that’s why I wouldn’t use their key pieces in cash or single entry GPP. But I’m loading up on large-field tourney entries and want to be overweight to the field with them because it’s one night of baseball and we’re talking about the best offense in the game being overlooked.
Bears have some great value plays (OF Park, 3B Hur, 2B/1B Choi) but with Drew Rucinski on the mound, they are less intriguing than usual. I’ll likely be underexposed to them tonight and take my chances.
SAMSUNG LIONS vs. LOTTE GIANTS
This is a game I’m going to want to fully stack. In fact, I’ll have exposure to both sides on my main GPP entry. We’ve got *arguably* the two worst pitchers on the slate and there could be a lot of offense in this one. The Giants have been much, much better in their home park this season (13-7, on the road 8-16).
Aaron Brooks (RHP/KIA) – Brooks has best peripherals (ERA/FIP/WHIP) of all pitchers on the slate. Because of this fact, Despaigne’s month-long struggles and Flexen/Rucinski’s tough matchups, Brooks will very likely be tonight’s most popular SP. We have certainly seen our fair share of chalky, popular pitchers ruin our lineups – and this certainly a possibility tonight against one of the league’s top offenses – but I’m willing to take the leap of faith that Brooks has a good outing. Granted, five of Kiwoom’s regular starting hitters have an ISO over .200 and a hard-hit rate over 25% against righties, but Brooks has done an incredible job limiting hard contact this season. His 11 percent mark is the league’s best mark among qualified starters. Moreover, Kiwoom’s studly shortstop Kim Ha-seong left yesterday’s game with an ankle injury and him possibly sitting tonight makes Brooks’ matchup even cushier. I’m almost as confident with Brooks tonight as I was with Jokisch last night. Forty to 50 percent ownership really isn’t all that crazy when you realize there are only 10 pitchers to choose from on this slate and a few of them we can throw out of contention immediately.
Odrisamer Despaigne (RHP/KTW) – This is a tough call because Despaigne’s May vs. June is a tale of two pitchers:
- May: 5 starts (33 IP) – 0 HR – 6 ER – 5 BB – 28 K
- June: 5 starts (28 IP) – 5 HR – 24 ER – 11 BB – 17 K
The only silver lining is the matchup with the Hanwha Eagles, the team with the least runs scored (3.5), most runs against (6.3) and recently waived their best hitter (Jared Hoying). The Eagles did have a couple spurts of offense in back to back games earlier this week (9-2 over Samsung, 7-4 over KT Wiz) but those efforts came against very bad pitchers. This does feel like a good Despaigne bounce back spot, but keep in mind, some of us have been saying this for the last few weeks.
Lim Chang-gyu (RHP/LG) – A bit on the pricey side on DK for a guy with a 4.69 ERA but it’s all about the matchup. The SK Wyverns have a putrid offense this season with third baseman Choi Jeong the only hitter on the team consistently smacking around right-handed pitching (.252 ISO, 29% HH). Lim’s Twins are the second-largest favorites (-180) on the slate and Lim has been racking up the whiffs including eight Eagles in his last start. He was recently skipped in the rotation after those 115 pitches at Hanwha so he will be pitching on 11-days rest. I would not be shocked if he served up a couple of dingers, but should rack up at least five strikeouts against a Wyverns’ offense with five guys with a k-rate over 30%.
Chris Flexen (RHP/DOO) & Drew Rucinski (RHP/NCD) – As previously mentioned, it’s a tough spot on both sides as both Flexen and Rucinski are among the KBO’s most dominant pitchers, but face the two toughest offenses. Flexen has faced the Dinos once this year (May 20) and it was, by far, his best outing of the season (8 IP – 10 K, 32.4 DKP) which might be a tiebreaker for the box score watchers, but should not be a reason to lock him in. The Dinos have certainly struggled offensively over the last week but both Yang Eui-ji and Kang Jin-sung had the day off yesterday and may be well rested for tonight.
On the other end, Rucinski will likely fall in lower owned than Brooks, Despaigne and Flexen because of the matchup with Doosan and the fact that he is DK’s priciest arm ($9300). The Bears dropped 12 runs on the Dinos last night, but it was a totally different setup than tonight with the opposing pitcher a middling reliever-turned starter. Another reason Rucinski will be lower owned is because he struggled against Doosan earlier this month, allowing two homers and whiffing just three in six innings. Don’t be shocked to see the universe balance out and for the lower-owned Rucinski dominate tonight and lead all pitchers in fantasy points.
KBO DFS STACKS, BEST VALUES, FAVORITE RANDOM ONE-OFFS
Updated around 3:00am tonight
Hop into the chat at 2:45am ET / 11:45am PT and I’ll be around until lineup lock
Good luck tonight and let’s keep it cashin’!
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