Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate!
KBO DFS – Saturday, June 27, 2020 – 4:00 AM EST
Welcome to the Saturday, June 27 KBO DFS Breakdown.
Let’s hop right in and take a look at current records, run production and Vegas totals. By the way, I’ve reformatted the players’ names in the traditional way they are used (last names first).
KIA TIGERS vs. KIWOOM HEROES
Tigers have been riding high, winning seven of their last 10 games, squeezing out an 8-6 victory over the Heroes in yesterday’s series opener. The Heroes have been riding a hot streak of their own, winning 8-of-10 and now boast the league’s second-best record. This game is expected to be more of a pitching duel than the first game given the low combined run total (8.5) and two upper-echelon SP (Yang, Jokisch) on the mound. Stacks from either of these two teams would be considered contrarian tonight but there are some one-offs we could consider, specifically on Kiwoom’s side, since Yang has had a down season overall.
KT WIZ vs. HANWHA EAGLES
Lo and behold, the Eagles have been making some waves of late. The league’s worst team was Lou’s primary stack last night, and it paid off with a seven-spot and several of their affordable hitters racking up double-digit fantasy points. The matchup against Cuevas may not be in their favor tonight and the Eagles are not a team to load up on tonight other than 150-entry GPPs. The Wiz still boast the best power duo in the game (Kang + Rojas) and they face a pitcher in Kim Min-woo who has 40 whiffs in 40 innings (seven starts) but has allowed nine homers. The Wiz are certainly in play today.
LG TWINS vs. SK WYVERNS
The Twins have cooled off after a bona fide hot streak and have now lost seven-of-10. Their big power bat Roberto Ramos has cooled off, hitting just one homer in those last 10 games. The matchup with SK is an intriguing one given that it’s Ricardo Pinto on the mound – he of the low strikeout rate (12.9%) and high rate of walks (11.3%). Not a top stack tonight but one that will be considered by default since we have some good SP on the slate.
On the flip side, the Wyverns continue to struggle but did shut the Twins out 7-0 in the series opener. The guy to keep an eye on for cash lineups is Kim Kyung-ho (OF – $2400 on DK). He was traded from the Bears a few days ago and has comfortably settled in as their leadoff hitter, going 7-for-13 in his three starts. He gets the LvR matchup so likely will leadoff again, just note that he is not a big power guy – he’s just a value plug-and-play.
NC DINOS vs. DOOSAN BEARS
This is the series everyone has been waiting for. The Dinos continue to struggle offensively and disappoint those stacking them in DFS. Though they scored nine runs yesterday (9-3 win over Doosan), their most popular bats (Na, Yang, Kang) did not come through. The matchup isn’t a particularly friendly one against Raul Alcantara who DFS folk seem to love, so my guess is that they’ll be an under-owned stack who might qualify as ‘sneaky’. The Bears will be the top stack of the slate since they are facing a bench starter (Choi Sung-young) who has yet to make it out of the fourth inning in any of his three starts. Expect to see sub-3k on DK guys Hur Kyoung-min and Choi Joo-hwan in almost every cash lineup and in many GPP’s as well.
SAMSUNG LIONS vs. LOTTE GIANTS
This might be an overlooked game with most working their way to Doosan and KT offensively. The Lions have Baek Jung-hyun toeing the rubber tonight and he will probably see some ownership as SP2 on DK since he’s cheap. Baek’s surface stats aren’t great but he did throw a gem against Kia in his last outing (25.4 DKP) as well as against the Heroes back on June 10 (23.1 DKP). The Giants have Adrian Sampson on the mound who finally had his first good outing in five starts at the KBO (28.5 DKP @ KTW last week). Big differential in his ERA (6.07) from FIP (3.70) so between this and his last start, we may not see many on the Lions’ stack bandwagon tonight.
Eric Jokisch (LHP/KIW) – The de facto chalk SP1 on DK tonight. Yes, he has been lucky when you consider ERA (1.63) and FIP (3.20) differential, but 3.20 is still damn solid. I’m always looking for reasons to consider fading a chalk play but that is hard to do tonight since the Kia Tigers’ two best hitters (Preston Tucker, Choi Hyung-woo) are both lefty bats and Jokisch is a southpaw himself. Keep it simple and use Jokisch as your anchor tonight.
William Cuevas (RHP/KT) – Your second-most popular play tonight will be Cuevas as the Wiz are facing the league’s worst team (Hanwha) and are the biggest favorites (-182) on the slate. Cuevas was hit or miss earlier in the season, then sat out three weeks with a hip injury but looked great in his return – seven innings, five strikeouts, no walks (26.8 DKP) against the Giants last week. Jokisch and Cuevas will be the most popular SP combo on DK today.
Adrian Sampson (RHP/LOT) – Mostly because they are favorites and facing a below-average Lions’ offense. Sampson had a tough time adjusting to the KBO, getting blasted in his first four starts, but as I mentioned in the intro, bounced back nicely last week. Big difference in the ERA (6.07) from FIP (3.70) is a positive sign as well. Certainly a pitcher to consider when you realize that Tyler Saladino is the only Lions’ hitter with a hard-hit rate of 25% or higher against RHP on this roster and that he is currently on IL with a back issue. I’m okay with him in cash if you want to move off Cuevas.
Jung Chan-heon (RHP/LG) & Baek Jung-hyun (LHP/SAM) – Two other pitchers to consider on tonight’s slate, especially if you’re building multiple lineups. LG’s Jung has been on quite a tear of late – 18.8, 38.8 and 19.9 DKP in his last three starts, but wary because of who his opponents were (HAN, SAM, HAN). The Wyverns are near the bottom of the pack themselves and Jung is cheap enough to be considered as your SP2 in both cash and tourneys. He whiffed 11 Lions in that June 4 start. As for Samsung’s Baek, this is mostly a price play since he’s just $6000 on DK, so it depends how many expensive guys you want to fit into lineups today. Baek has two starts over 23 DKP in his last three but also a 7.9 and a -9.4 this month, so certainly some risk baked into the price. I’d mix both guys into your pool if you want some lower-owned guys, but would probably still stick with Jokisch/Cuevas in cash.
KBO DFS STACKS, BEST VALUES, FAVORITE RANDOM ONE-OFFS
Updated around 3:00am tonight
Hop into the chat at 2:45am ET / 11:45am PT and I’ll be around until lineup lock
Good luck tonight and let’s keep it cashin’!
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