Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate!
KBO DFS – Sunday, June 21, 2020 – 4:00 AM EST
Welcome to the Sunday, June 21 KBO DFS Breakdown.
Hope you’re digging the new format and that you have enough data to make wise and informed decisions. Let’s hop right in and look at today’s moneylines and run totals.
EAGLES vs. DINOS – Two straight nights of chalk busting as the Dinos have been stymied in back-to-back outings this series (just seven total runs in two games). Particularly shocking was their 4-3 loss last night as monster favorites (-355), a bet very few probably jumped on. The Doosan Bears have now overtaken the Dinos for league’s best team batting average (.300 to .299) and their recent slide has coincided with all-star catcher Eui-ji Yang hitting the IL, but it is not the cause of it. It’s a good spot for the Dinos to bounce back and hit the over on their run total but note that many of the hitters’ prices have gone up considerably on DK (ie – 1B/OF Kang from $4500 to $5000, OF Na from $6000 to $6400 and 2B Park from $5100 to $5700).
GIANTS vs. WIZ – The Wiz have the league’s worst bullpen and had their four-game win streak halted last night with a 8-0 loss after winning 9-8 in the series opener. This is the second-highest combined run total of the night featuring a couple of SPs with ERA’s greater than 5.00 this year. Perhaps a repeat of that series opener tonight and a game stack worth considering.
BEARS vs. TWINS – Both teams are on a roll, specifically the Bears who dropped seven runs on the Lions earlier this week and 26 runs (!) combined on the LG Twins in this series. The Twins have been on fire themselves winning seven of their last 10 and the key components of their offense a part of several GPP-winning stacks over this past week.
WYVERNS vs. HEROES – The Wyverns are the league’s second-worst team and continue to struggle offensively. Tonight they’ve got Ricardo Pinto and his 11.1% walk-rate on the mound which will certainly lead to some of us going back to the well on a Kiwoom Heroes stack. The Heroes signed Addison Russell who will probably be a stud in the KBO. Russell playing shortstop likely means that they’re best all-around hitter (Ha-seong Kim, aka the Korean Lindor) will likely move to second base and occasionally DH. And everyday-DK value Hye-Sung Kim will platoon more frequently, but also play some 2B and DH.
LIONS vs. TIGERS – Add in the Bears and it’s ‘oh my’! The Tigers have been very steady offensively of late winning 8-of-10 heading into tonight’s series finale with Samsung (they’ve won 5-4 and 6-3). In that first game, Preston Tucker was a triple short of the cycle en route to a whopping 33 DK points and has brought his average up to .357 with a 10-game hit streak. The Lions are rarely a popular stack and will certainly be a contrarian one tonight in this matchup against the slate’s priciest pitcher, Hyun-jong Yang.
Eric Jokisch (LHP/KIW) – Granted Jokisch has been quite lucky when you see the ERA (1.16) and FIP (3.27) differential, but 3.27 is certainly still respectable and the matchup with the Wyverns as -177 favorites is almost (cough, Eagles) as good as it gets. He doesn’t overpower with punchouts though that 18 percent k-rate this season is on par with last year’s rate and the Wyverns’ key hitters (Romak, Choi, Kim, Jeong) have whiff rates over 30% against southpaws this season. That’s the key reason why I’ll be joining the masses tonight in rostering Jokisch at high ownership.
Min-ho Lee (RHP/LG) – Lee has been dynamite in his three starts this season (17, 21, 27.6 DK points including seven strikeouts in each of his last two). He has looked incredibly poised as an 18-year-old rookie but note those three starts came against SK and Samsung x2. This is an entirely different animal in Doosan. The price is right on DK ($7200) and I’m hoping it’s not a trap. No team crushes right-handed pitching better than the Doosan Bears and since LG are home underdogs we now have a couple more reasons to be concerned. If you assume high ownership on Lee, perhaps he is a fade. Or maybe he’s simply a beast in the making and we ride-or-die with him in our lineups. That’s a decision I cannot make for you.
Hyun-jong Yang (LHP/Kia) – Five of Yang’s eight starts this season have been absolute gems (20-plus DK points in each) though he did have two rough outings with negative fantasy points. In the season opener against Kiwoom (4 ER in 3 IP) and on May 28 against the Wiz where he served up 11 hits and six runs. He could certainly dominate a matchup with the Lions at home tonight and Vegas seems to think so, making them heavy favorites (-182) with a low-ish combined run total of 9.0. Tough to fit in the offense you want with both Yang and Jokisch, so you’ll have to choose one over the other, or mix and match if you’re playing multiple lineups.
Jin-ho Kim (RHP/NCD) – Certainly a consideration and very likely one of the top three or four most popular pitchers on DraftKings tonight for three reasons: the team he plays, the team he’s facing and the fact that he is minimum salary ($4000). Kim just recently joined the team and the fact that he’s 22 years old could mean that he’s either a late bloomer or just isn’t that talented (because top prospects join the main KBO league at 18 or 19). That said, a little birdie who knows the KBO well seems to believe that Kim could be a decent arm in this league. Don’t let that first start affect you too much. He couldn’t get out of the fifth inning against the powerhouse Heroes, serving up a bomb to a three-run bomb to Hye-sung Kim and walking three. He definitely seemed a bit shaky in that outing in terms of control but did manage five whiffs. Put it this way: he’s a boom-or-bust play better suited for GPPs. Doing so allows you to play those expensive Dinos, Heroes or KT Wiz bats. Do you feel lucky?
# 1 – NC Dinos
In order of preference:
Kang (1B), Na (OF), MG Lee (OF), Park (2B), Altherr (OF)
#2 – Kia Tigers (sneaky low %)
In order of preference:
Tucker (OF), HR Kim (OF), Park (3B), Baek or Nam (C)
#3 – Kiwoom Heroes
In order of preference:
J Lee (OF), Ha Kim (SS), Hy Kim (2B), D Park (C), BH Park (1B)
- KT Wiz – BH Kang (1B), Rojas (OF), Bae (OF)
- Lotte Giants – Son (OF), Machado (2B), DH Lee (1B), Jeon (OF)
- Doosan Bears – Choi (2B), Fernandez (1B), JH Kim (OF), Kook (OF)
- Joo-hwan Choi (DOO/DK – $2300)
- Yong-taik Park (LG/DK – $2000)
- Sang-su Kim (SAM/FD – $8)
FAVORITE RANDOM ONE-OFFS
- Ho-ryeung Kim (KIA/DK – $3700)
- Baek-ho Kang (KT/DK – $6000)