Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate!
KBO DFS – Friday, June 19, 2020 – 5:30 AM EST
Welcome to the Friday June 19 KBO DFS Breakdown.
I’ve done a little redesigning and some upgrades for my piece so I hope that not only you like the new formatting and additional advanced metrics, but that they are helpful in your own lineup builds. Most importantly, I have some lefty/righty in-season splits as well as some hard-hit data that can help us drill down on the best choices today. It’s always tough to find an edge when you’re dealing with a 10-team league where we see high ownership on so many players.
Tonight, the Dinos are the biggest favorites of any game this season and it is quite apropos given their league domination, matchup with the woeful Eagles and the fact that arguably the league’s best pitcher (Chang-mo Koo) is on the mound. It won’t be wise to simply avoid Dinos’ bats entirely; in fact, it is probably a mistake. Both on the pitching and hitting side, all of our lineups should be starting with NC.
Chang-mo Koo (LH/NCD) and Drew Gagnon (RH/KIA) will carry very high ownership. Koo is a lock tonight – don’t overthink this one. The Eagles hit .235 as a team, only have one hitter with more than two home runs on the season and they really just don’t stand a chance against the Dinos’ southpaw ace.
Your only reason for using someone other than Gagnon as your SP2 is because, hey, this is baseball, and anything can happen in a single game and these Samsung Lions have been chalk busters before. But Gagnon is one of the league’s best starting pitchers and the Tigers are hefty favorites today. Among 39 qualified starters, Gagnon is second in FIP (2.53), third in strikeout rate (27.4%) and fourth in WHIP (1.07).
If you are looking to move off Gagnon, your best alternatives are SK’s Seung-won Moon and Kiwoom’s Hyun-hee Han. Moon has a hefty differential between ERA (4.28) and FIP (3.55) and the league’s fifth-best strikeout rate (24.4%). It’s maybe not a great thing then that the league leader in strikeouts (Byung-ho Park) just hit the IL but it’s still a dangerous bat out of the Heroes’ lineup.
Han is really only in play on FD because of his dirt-cheap tag ($23) but since we only play one pitcher, can you really justify playing him over Koo for just three bucks more? I sure can’t. And on DK, he is the same price as Gagnon – no thanks. The Wyverns are the second-worst team on offense though and the Heroes are big favorites, so he is a consideration in large-field tournaments.
The only other guys I’d consider in large-field tourneys are KT’s Je-seong Bae and Samsung’s David Buchanan. Specifically, Bae as your SP2 on Draftkings only in large-field tourneys and if you think the Lions can get to Gagnon.
KBO DFS OFFENSE
I’ve already mentioned it, but the NC Dinos are your top stack of the evening. I’d personally make it a priority to get Aaron Altherr and Hee-dong Kwon in your lineups tonight. Altherr has an insane .630 ISO (isolated power) against southpaws and though Hanwha’s Bum-soo Kim has only pitched 18 innings this year, the dude has a walk rate over 18 percent. Kwon is simply too cheap, will be chalky and is a righty bat facing a lefty. I always find a reason to play Eui-ji Yang and Sung-bum Na but they combine for over 12k of salary and both don’t hit lefties as well as they do righties (though they still hit them pretty damn good).
The KT Wiz are likely the next most popular stack with the duo of Mel Rojas Jr. and Baek-ho Kang the two guys you usually have to play together. No one hits right-handed pitching harder than Kang who was the league’s rookie of the year two years ago as an 18-year-old. If you’re batching pieces together, you can certainly consider some value Lotte Giants’ bats in some lineups since the Wiz’s starting pitcher Bae is below average and their bullpen is the league’s worst.
The Doosan Bears are usually in play as a stack against righties since the meat of their lineup are lefty bats. But they are facing a lefty today. That is good news for Kun-woo Park who has a massive 42 percent hard-hit rate against southpaws and is the team’s leadoff man (oh, and he’s also way too affordable on DK). Joo-hwan Choi is a steal at just $2,100. He’s 1B/2B eligible and a great one to fit into your lineup with an expensive Koo as one of your pitchers today.
The LG Twins have been on quite the offensive tear though they rely less on the longball than the Dinos, Wiz and Heroes. You could certainly piece a stack together here if you want to get contrarian. Speaking of contrarian, if you want to get a little silly, try a Samsung Lions’ stack in the $12 large-field DK tournament (58 max entries tonight) on a team where you don’t play Gagnon.
Rounding up the potential stacks are the Kiwoom Heroes and Kia Tigers, but they are much less palpable tonight in single-entry and cash games than the Dinos and Wiz.
Good luck tonight and let’s keep it cashin’!
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