Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate!
KBO DFS – Sunday, June 14, 2020 – 4:00 AM EST
Welcome to the Sunday, June 14 KBO DFS Breakdown!
An absolutely abysmal slate from every perspective so you may want to keep your action light unless you are feeling strong about an offbeat stack.
For starters, DraftKings only has four games on the slate since Doosan/Hanwha was cut short due to rain after three innings and will continue today (FanDuel still has it on their slate). To add to the madness, there are only seven SP to choose from on DK since NC Dinos’ starter Jin-ho Kim is not listed. In fact, Kim is one of three starting pitchers on this slate under the age of 21 and to add to the mayhem, two others are relievers (Kiwoom’s Jo, SK’s Lee) getting the nod tonight because of injuries to guys in the rotation. With just seven SP on DK to choose from and the two most popular being very expensive (Casey Kelly, LG – $9200, Hyun-jing Yang, KIA – $9900), you can imagine that most lineup builds will try to roster the same sub-$3000 affordable value hitters to ensure they can fit these two pitchers in. This is the exact type of slate to avoid cash games and get a little weird in large-field GPPs (something I don’t typically recommend).
Hyun-jong Yang LH/KIA
The southpaw is an old-school veteran of the league and has been making starts for these Tigers since 2007. He has posted some good stat lines over the years, but nothing like last year where he led the league in ERA (2.29) with a comparable FIP (2.59) and fantastic strikeout and walk rates (22.3%, 4.5%). Yang has had a couple bumps in the road this season (two negative DK-point starts) but has otherwise been decent (3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). Tonight he is the safest bet and worth the price tag with the Tigers this slate’s biggest favorites (-175) taking on the slate’s only team averaging under four runs per game. On Fanduel, you get the gift of a $25 Yang and everyone knows you don’t look a yang-horse in the mouth.
Casey Kelly RH/LG
I’ve come around on the LG Twins – they are a damn solid ballclub. The reason they rarely pop in as optimals in stacks is because they aren’t big boppers like Doosan and the Dinos. But damn, can these guys make contact and wear opposing pitchers out. But we’re not in this paragraph to talk about their offense (other than the fact that they should provide some solid run support). Kelly will be the first or second most popular pitcher tonight, mostly because of name recognition and process of elimination. On DK, you could roll with one of him or Yang and then take some chances with your SP2, but you’d definitely be playing with some fire. Kelly has a 5.06 ERA but a 3.80 FIP and last year’s 2.55 ERA in 180 innings portends to better times ahead for the 30-year-old righty. The Lotte Giants’ lineup are far from overwhelming and though Kelly is not a big strikeout guy, it’s a good matchup for him to take advantage of. If I’m having to choose between him and Yang though, it’s Yang.
Tae-in Won RH/SAM
If you are not comfortable with the offense you build with the cap left over from a Yang/Kelly combo, then may I tempt you with a budding 20-year-old arm? Won is someone to keep an eye on regardless because he has a great story. His dad was drafted by the Samsung Lions in 1984 and though he never played for them, Tae-in (along with his dad and brother) have been attending games in the stadium since he was six years old. Won appeared on Korean tv shows as a baseball prodigy and had always dreamed of playing for the Lions. Well, his dream came true last year as a reliever, though the results were less than stellar (4.82 ERA / 1.41 WHIP). He hopped into the rotation in the second week of the season and though he has had his fair share of disaster starts, he did drop 22.8 DK points last week against the LG Twins on the road and 31.6 against the Lotte Giants. On the season, a solid 2.68 ERA but one to be weary of when you consider the FIP (4.53). Strikeout (15.5%) and walk (8.4%) numbers are nothing enticing but his overall upside is. Listed as a GPP play primarily and yes, the KT Wiz are a scary offense power-wise. But that -157 Vegas moneyline on the Lions at home is a key number. Much of it is because of the Wiz’s SP (18 y.o. Hyeung-jun So with a 5.35 ERA), but it is also due in part to Won. So far, Won is averaging 18.5 DKP on the road and 9.1 DKP at home (three starts each) so perhaps he feels extra pressure at home, where his heart is. But we’re talking about a small sample here and not anything we should overly analyze. It comes down to what we can do with the extra cap dropping down from Yang or Kelly to Won and if he can keep the Wiz from launching homers.
Others to Consider:
I honestly wouldn’t really consider anyone else on a normal slate, but we’ve got to think even more outside the box today. I’ve never been a fan of Adrian Sampson dating back to his Texas Rangers days. And he’s been putrid through his first three KBO starts (6.91 ERA, 1.88 WHIP). But anyone can have a good start on any given day so we can’t completely discount him.
Reliever-turned-starter Geon-wook Lee is the only guy I’d consider as a pivot from Won as DK SP2 in large-field tourneys since he’s only $6500. I’d only roll with him on a team where you plan on skipping Kia’s Yang.
With no Doosan on the DK slate, expect the bulk of ownership to fall on NC Dinos and Kiwoom Heroes. Kiwoom exploded for 18 runs last night and you might expect a little payback from NC tonight. With Eui-ji Yang resting last night, expect him to be in the lineup tonight. And he will be one of the core plays for an offense facing a Kiwoom pitcher who is still ramping up turning from reliever to a starter (68 and 76 pitch count in his last two). Kiwoom should be crazy popular again since they are facing Jin-ho Kim, a teenager making his KBO debut who we literally know nothing about. He could surprise us and pitch well for all we know, but as previously mentioned he is not even listed on DK. And after that 18-run outburst, expect DFS players to go back to the well on Kiwoom. If you want to be different tonight, just have minimal exposure to Kiwoom/NC, but I’d only do that in the large-field tourneys and not in cash, single-entry or three-entry max.
The Kia Tigers and LG Twins will be the two next most popular stacks and though we rarely see Samsung Lions garner high ownership, we will see more of them rostered tonight given the opposing pitcher (Hyeung-jun So – 5.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 13 K in 33.2 IP) and the fact that Lions are big favorites. I’m personally fading KT Wiz because I trust in Won tonight. And if you really, really want to get nutty in large-field entries, then you consider Lotte Giants and SK Wyverns against the two high-owned SP in Yang and Kelly.
Favorites by Position
- Eui-ji Yang, RH/NC ($6400/$14) – Priced even higher so it’s a tough call whether to include
- Dong-won Park RH/KIW ($4900/$10) – Big power guy facing a kid in his debut
- Kang-nam Yoo RH/LG ($3800/$8) – A bit pricey but 22 RBI in 33 games
- Min-ho Kang RH/SAM ($3600/$7) – Hitting just .202 but can hit for power (five homers)
- Byung-ho Park RH/KIW ($4800/$13) – Homer last night; a must in chalky KIW stacks
- Jin-sung Kang, RH/NC ($4500/$14, 1B/OF DK) – KBO batting avg leader; great matchup
- Ja-wook Koo RH/SAM ($5000/$9, 1B/OF DK) – Best hitter on team (.368); power & speed
- Min-sang Yoo LH/KIA ($3600/$7) – Punt play; hits 6th (if more than 3 lineups)
- Keon-chang Seo LH/KIW ($3700/$11) – Leadoff man will be high-% tonight
- Min-woo Park LH/NC ($5100/$12) – The other guy people will spend up on; hitting .321 this year but just one RBI in his last 10 (then again, he’s a leadoff guy)
- Soo-hwan Kim RH/KIW ($2100/NA, 2B/3B DK) – Keep an eye to see if he’s in the lineup. Not listed on FD. Made debut last night off bench going 2-for-2 with 2 RBI
- Seon-woo Oh LH/KIA ($2700/$5; 2B/3B on DK) – Not in lineup every day but hits sixth in lineup and might move up with Choi likely out tonight
- Byung-woo Jeon RH/KIW ($2500/$5) – The #6 hitter in Kiwoom’s lineup will be popular again tonight at this salary and super shallow position
- Suk-min Park RH/NC ($5100/$10) – Hasn’t been the same since hurting his hand last month (no power at all) but will be one of lowest-% guys on a NC stack
- Hye-sung Kim LH/KIW ($2500/$7) – The unSUNG hero of my lineup last night scoring 35 DKP; now on everyone’s radar as Kiwoom bats will be popular and he’s cheap; ride wave or fade
- Tyler Saladino RH/SAM ($4500/$8, 3B/OF DK) – If playing any Lions, it’s him and Koo
- Ha-seong Kim RH/KIW ($5900/$15) – One of the league’s best all-around hitters but usually gets overlooked because of the other expensive hitters each day; a must if you KIW is your #1 stack
- Jin-hyuk No LH/NC ($4300/$9, 2B/SS DK) – Another lower percentage guy from the Dinos especially since he’s been cold his last 10 (hitting .241)
— NC Dinos —
- Sung-bum Na LH ($6300/$17)
- Aaron Altherr RH ($5100/$16)
- Myung-gi Lee RH ($3300/$9)
- Hee-dong Kwon RH ($2300/$7)
If you think it’s Dinos payback time then just load up on these guys. Na is the anchor and Lee or Kwon you play based on who hits second (it’s usually Lee against RHP). Altherr can hit anyone and he’s averaging 13 DKP over his last 10 but I usually prefer him against LHP. That said, Kiwoom’s RP-turned-SP Young-gun Jo may not last long in this outing so lefties will come out eventually. I’ve had some success this season by differentiating on my NC Dinos’ stacks by going with Altherr and a cheap Kwon at bottom of lineup. Kwon is the salary-saver but may not be necessary on your primary lineup unless you’re going with bottom-of-order NC stack with Altherr.
— LG Twins —
- Yong-taik Park LH ($2100/$10)
- Eun-sung Chae RH ($3100/$11)
- Chun-woong Lee LH ($3300/$9)
Very low upside here in GPP and I warn you, don’t play them together unless you think the Twins score eight or more runs on Sampson and the Lotte pen tonight. That’s because these don’t have any power (Chae has some) and they are mostly high-average contact guys. This offense just isn’t the same without Ramos but that doesn’t mean these guys can do some damage. On large-field GPPs, you could potentially play all three but it just isn’t really necessary because that there are value plays in the infield. I’d lean towards the lefty bats against the righty Sampson who has a penchant for getting WHIP’d.
— Kia Tigers —
- Preston Tucker LH ($5700/$17)
- Ho-ryung Kim RH ($3700/$10)
Their veteran stud hitter Hyoung-woo Choi likely won’t play tonight after getting dinged up in last night’s game which means there might be some value opening up on the Tigers who will hit higher in the lineup. Regardless, Kim and Tucker should hit 1-2 again facing reliver-turned starter Geon-wook Lee. You could get weird with Tigers tonight.
- KIWOOM – Jung-ho Lee LH ($5200/$14) – Most of the studs on Kiwoom are infielders and their catcher, Park. But Lee is this team’s best hitter, hitting .373 with 6 HR, 23 RBI. A building block for cash and single-entry with this LvR matchup against the kid Kim in his debut.
- LOTTE – Ah-seop Son LH ($3300/$13) – Not much power but a great DK price. Hitting .366 and averaging nearly 11 DK points over his last 10. Not a primary play tonight with all the other options and the matchup vs. Kelly, but certainly a consideration.
- SAMSUNG – Chan-do Park LH ($3100/$6) – Another piece for your Samsung stack if you’re planning to go in that direction but only if he’s hitting second. Not a particularly amazing hitter but there would be value being a lefty bat facing a weak righty and hitting ahead of Koo and Saladino.