Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate!
KBO DFS – Friday, June 12, 2020 – 5:30 AM EST
Welcome to the Friday June 12 KBO DFS Breakdown!
Another straightforward slate as far as figuring out where ownership will predominantly lie with pitchers and stacks. It’s a Chang-mo Koo slate, which means 70 to 80 percent of lineups will be starting with him. The most common pairing with Koo on DK will be Kia Tigers’ Drew Gagnon since he is still very affordable there ($7400). The other pitchers in the mix tonight will be Dan Straily (LOT) and Tyler Wilson (LG) facing each other’s offenses and quite possibly Odrisamer Despaigne (KTW) but he is fifth on this list and this is the game (KTW vs SAM) with about a 40 percent chance of rain. The possible inclement weather and the possibility of a delay or postponement are why it will be very important to be around the hour before lineups lock (from 4:30am – 5:30am EST / 1:30am – 2:30am PST).
KBO DFS STACK OVERVIEW
The stack side is very predictable as well. The NC Dinos are massive favorites (-305) and facing a pitcher with horrendous ratios (lefty Seung-ho Lee: 7.79 ERA, 1.68 WHIP). We will have to keep an eye on possible lineup shifts with a lefty on the mound and the potential of a stud bat like Yang, Kang or Na getting the day off. As a team, the Dinos have 16 more home runs (52) than the next highest team (KT Wiz – 36).
Speaking of the KT Wiz, they will be the other popular stack, but if this game does get postponed (don’t think it will), most of these Dinos will see over 70 percent ownership and it’ll be the chalkiest slate we have seen yet. Any Wiz stack revolves around the beastly Rojas Jr. who hit yet another bomb last night. The Samsung Lions are planning to start Seung-min Lee, a reliever who is not of legal age to buy a beer in the states and is not even listed in the player pool on DK. A great situation to attack here.
The Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins matchup with Straily and Wilson has an incredibly low run total (8.5) which makes it difficult to load up on either offense outside of 150-lineup large-field tourneys. Not to mention, both starting pitchers are pretty good.
Doosan Bears stacks won’t be as popular as they usually would be despite being near -300 favorites. That is because all of their best hitters (Fernandez, Oh, Kwan) are lefty bats and they’re facing Hanwha Eagles lefty Chad Bell. Not to say it isn’t a sneaky stack tonight though. Bell has been horrific since coming off IL with an elbow injury, allowing 11 runs and nine walks in three starts. He has pitched just 11 innings but has some woeful ratios (9.00 ERA, 2.09 WHIP). If you’re running out a lineup in the three-entry max, you could go against the Dinos/Wiz grain with some Bears tonight.
The Kia Tigers are the stack I like most that might be a bit against the grain tonight. SK Wyverns’ starter Jong-hoon Park is considered a respectable arm (sixth season as a starter, 3.88 ERA last year, 3.44 ERA this year through six starts). But Park’s 24% strikeout rate (9.0 K/9) this season might be a bit of fool’s gold. His career rate is closer to 17 percent and three of those starts have been against Samsung and Hanwa (x2). Park has walked three batters in three of his last four starts. I’d consider a stack around the core of lefty bats Tucker and Choi.
No interest for me in Samsung Lions against Despaigne, Wyverns against Gagnon and certainly not any Kiwoom Heroes against CY KOO.
Last, but not least, the matchup for the Hanwha Eagles is actually the best one they have seen a long while as they face a reliever (Won-joon Choi) who will be making his first start of the season and will be on a pitch count. Choi is min salary on DK ($4000) so he has some sneaky hedge stack appeal if you’re playing multiple lineups. But the dude has a 7.64 ERA in 17.2 innings and is only making this start because righty Chris Flexen is sidelined. If you have the huevos to play some Hanwa hitters tonight, I’ll list some options for you in the positional breakdown near the bottom.
PITCHERS TO TARGET
Chang-mo Koo (LHP/NC)
I assume that at some point Koo hits a stumbling block and blows up on us as the chalk. Of course, that is likely in any start, especially in a tough matchup with the powerful right-handed bats of Kiwoom, but I’ll be going with the flow on this one and not overthinking it.
Koo was good last season but has truly broken out in 2020 as the best arm in the KBO. He is 5-0 in six starts, has spectacular ratios (0.66 ERA, 0.71 WHIP) and a 29.5 percent strikeout rate (his 44 whiffs led the league). To not play Koo tonight on DraftKings would simply be overthinking it (famous last words, eh?). On FanDuel, he is the first pitcher to hit the $30 mark and salary cap is tighter there, but luckily we have a few minimum salary hitters we can sneak into our lineups to get Koo in there. I’m loading him up on all three of my main DK lineups but with slight hesitation, since we have a rather star-studded slate of SPs.
Drew Gagnon (RHP/KIA)
Plenty to like with this version of Gagnon in contrast with his days on the Mets. He has been cruising so far this season (3.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) with the most notable factors being his underlying metrics – a 2.49 FIP, 29% K-rate and 5.1% walk-rate. The Tigers are road favorites against a Wyverns’ squad still missing one of their key bats (Dong-min Han) and somehow DraftKings has left him ultra-affordable at just $7300. Because of this, he will be locked in on most cash lineups as the primary SP2. Anything other than playing Koo-Gagnon there in both cash and GPPs would be considered contrarian tonight. I really don’t mind fading the chalk quite often, but not sure I’m going to do so today in cash (I’ll differentiate with hitters).
Tyler Wilson (RHP/LG)
Wilson averages nearly eight more DK points at home this season and his team is -177 favorites at home tonight. He was an ace last season (2.92 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 2.14 BB/9) and though he has run into some trouble as evident by a 4.29 ERA, his 3.84 FIP is about a half run lower and he’s maintained a similar BB/9 to last year (around 2.00). It is difficult to justify him over Gagnon as your DK SP2 but he is only $25 on FD which is two bucks less than Gagnon and five bucks less than Koo. Not the highest strikeout upside either and he has yet to top 23 DKP in any one start. More of cash play than GPP one.
FADE: Dan Straily (RHP/LOT)
Straily has been terrific (2.23 ERA, 3.22 FIP) and is second in the KBO behind Koo in strikeouts with 43. But this LG team is the exact kind to give him fits since they are a pesky group who collectively hit for plenty of contact and only have one regular with a strikeout rate over 20 percent. It is quite possible Straily runs into some trouble in his first start of the season against them. It’s a small sample split and may be meaningless, but in three home starts, Straily is averaging 29.6 DK points, and in four road starts, 10.7. As you may have guessed or had possibly already surmised where I’m going with this, Straily is on the road tonight.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER:
Odrisamer Despaigne (RHP/KTW) – Allowed just seven runs in his first five starts, then 14 in his last two with 10 of those coming two starts ago against the Bears. Slight reason for hesitation, but I’d rather roll with him than Wilson or Straily in GPPs because of the matchup with Samsung whose weak offense will likely be a touch weaker without the services of three-hole hitter Tyler Saladino. If this game plays (40% chance rain) and Despaigne does end up getting torched, I’d cross him off my list for his next couple starts until I see that he is not broken.
I’ll mention Won-joon Choi (RHP/DOO) since he is only $4000 on DK and his team are -295 favorites but will have to remind you of his 7.64 ERA and the fact that he is a reliever on a pitch count and making his first start. Crazier things have happened so I’m writing his name here, but with the hitter values available, we likely don’t have to ‘go there’.
FAVORITES BY POSITION
- Eui-ji Yang, RH/NC ($6100/$14) – The spend-up option, Yang has hit safely in 9-of-10 with 2 HR, 7 RBI in his last three. With a weak lefty on the mound, Yang is my offensive building block.
- Sung-woo Jang, RH/KT ($3800/$10) – Jang at half the price of Yang could work if you have a predominantly Wiz-heavy team. Hit a three-run shot last night.
- KIA C – Yong-hwan Baek RH ($2900/$6) or Seung-taek Han RH ($3600/$6) – The punt play if you are spending on expensive Dinos or Wiz at other positions
- VALUE: Yeon-seok Oh RH/LOT ($2000/$5), Yoon-suk Oh on FD – Helps get all your big boys into lineups today. Min-salary, hits fifth and raking (.400 AVG since returning to action on June 3).
- Jin-sung Kang, RH/NC ($3900/$10, 1B/OF DK) – Ho hum, another homer yesterday. The righty is my 1B with his teammate Yang on my main lineup tonight.
- Roberto Ramos, LH/LG ($4800/$17) – Ramos also went deep last night and could do so again against fly-baller Straily in this LvR matchup. Hard to imagine it’s been just a week since his DK salary was hovering around $3600
- Jae-il Oh, LH/DOO ($4000/$15) – The LvL lower-percentage play with your DOO stack.
- VALUE: Seon-woo Oh LH/KIA ($2500/$5, 2B/3B DK) – Check to see if he is in the lineup but he hit sixth last night. Just 57 plate appearances last year with a 42% strikeout rate. I’d rather use the other Oh value play, but he doesn’t give you the flexibility this Oh does with second base being much shallower.
- Jose Miguel Fernandez, LH/DOO ($6300/$17, 1B/2B DK) – Won’t be as highly owned as usual.
- Suk-min Park RH/NC ($4900/$10) – Has been cold last couple weeks nursing minor hand injury but not enough to put him on IL. Had the day off yesterday and hopefully gets it rolling today. Will be overlooked in NC Dinos stacks because of price and recent struggles.
- Min-sung Kim RH/LG ($3800/$8) – Not a ton of power or upside but a decent cash game plug in if you can’t afford Park.
- Jae-ho Kim RH/DOO ($2600/$9) – Should be in the lineup with a righty on the mound and despite virtually no power he is hitting .352 on the season.
- VALUE: Ji-hyuk Ryu LH/KIA ($2000/$5) – Value alert! Ryu was traded from the Bears to the Tigers at the end of May and was the cleanup hitter in last night’s game. If he’s in a similar lineup spot, go ahead and pounce as your top value play.
— NC Dinos —
- Sung-bum Na LH ($6000/$17)
- Aaron Altherr RH ($4800/$15)
- Hee-dong Kwon RH ($2300/$7)
Your top trio from the same team and listed together. The Dinos face a southpaw, albeit not a very good one in Seung-ho Lee but Na can crush both lefties and righties. He’s averaging nearly 13 DK PPG over his last 10 with 10 RBI over that span. Altherr has finally been seeing the ball well after a slow start. He is riding an eight-game hit streak and is now nearly fully priced on FD (was always pricey on DK). Kwon typically hits in the bottom-third of the order but he’s near min-salary on both sites and may hit higher today facing a southpaw. We have seen him hit second against lefties (for Myung-gi Lee) so if that’s the case tonight, he’s a lock for our cash games.
— KT Wiz —
- Mel Rojas Jr. SW ($6500/$16)
- Baek-ho Kang LH ($6200/$16, 1B/OF DK)
- Yong-ho Jo LH ($3000/$8)
It will be just as tough to fit Rojas and Kang in with Koo as your pitcher as it would be mixing in a Dinos stack with Yang/Na/Altherr/Kang/Park, but it is certainly doable. The Wiz’s Kang is back after missing three weeks with a wrist injury. He went hitless in his first two games but was 3-for-5 with three runs and a homer yesterday. In case you don’t know much about Baek-ho Kang, he is a flat-out stud and could wreak havoc in the majors today. Just 20 years of age, he hit 29 homers and scored 108 runs as a rookie in 2018 and slashed .336/.416/.495 last season despite missing about 20 games. He is back to his crushing ways with six homers in just 17 games.
He and Rojas will be a joy to watch hit back to back in games this year and this one tonight with the unknown reliever on the mound feels like one of those outings. Yong-ho Jo doesn’t have any power but he is hitting .360 this year and usually hits second but was the lead-off man in yesterday’s game. Him being cheap helps complete your KTW outfield stack should you opt for them over the Dinos or others.
— Kia Tigers —
- Preston Tucker LH ($5500/$17)
- Hyung-woo Choi LH ($5400/$11)
- Ho-ryung Kim RH ($3400/$8)
Mentioned earlier how I like this stack as they are a good leverage play against the masses who will be loaded with Wiz and Dinos. Tucker and Choi are more affordable on FD because of Choi’s reasonable salary but you can get it done on DK as well – two solid lefty bats against the overhyped righty, Park. Kim has seen his salary rise greatly recently since he has been crushing it. He is the leadoff man who has only played in the last 10 games of the season because of injury and is hitting a cool .419. His DKP since his first start on June 2: 16, 28, 14, 10, 8, 17, 0, 11, 17!
Also Consider: Jared Hoying RH/HAN ($4900/$9), Yong-kyu Lee LH/HAN ($4000/$8), Kun-woo Park RH/DOO ($3600/$10)
Good luck tonight and let’s keep it cashin’!
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