Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate!
KBO DFS – Sunday, May 24, 2020 – 1:00 AM EST
Welcome to the daily KBO DFS Breakdown!
It is the final game of the three-game series’ before all teams get a well-earned day of rest. Injuries are really starting to pile up, particularly for the KT Wiz. Already losing slugger Baek-Ho Kang to a wrist injury for three weeks, the Wiz lost Jae-gyun Hwang as well, who has missed both games in their series with the LG Twins.
The Doosan Bears have big power man Jae-Il Oh on IL for some time but haven’t skipped a beat, leading the league in runs scored, including 22 in their two games this series against the Samsung Lions. With a whopping 11.5 combined run total in this game, expect the masses to do everything they can to fit some key Bears’ pieces in their lineup tonight. The league’s best hitter, Jose Fernandez, has been on a tear (82.3 FDP total last two games), and he’s a whopping $18 on FanDuel with teammate Jae-hwan Kim the next most expensive hitter on the entire slate ($17).
The other chalky stack tonight will be key pieces of the Kiwoom Heroes, who are massive favorites (-210) against the Lotte Giants and facing the slate’s cheapest (and worst) pitcher on DK (Jun Won Seo). The Dinos are the biggest favorite of the night, as they are the most well-rounded. Though, be careful with my favorite guy Eui-ji Yang, who might actually not be in the lineup tonight. He left yesterday’s game in the seventh inning due to a neck injury following a collision. It doesn’t sound like an injury that will keep him down, but with the Dinos and all teams getting ready for a day off on Monday, it might make sense to give Yang an extra day of rest.
PITCHERS TO TARGET
Mike Wright (RHP/NC) – The former Orioles’ semi-prospect is our top play overall on both sites tonight, but he comes with a high likelihood of being extra chalky. But that is quite alright since starting pitchers have been incredibly volatile from start to start all season and we simply need any stability we can get. That is exactly what a matchup with the Hanwha Eagles provides. The Eagles are averaging the second-least runs per game (3.76) and offer virtually no power, as they are dead last with 10 combined homers through 17 games. No one on this team has hit more than two home runs this year, and only one guy topped 20 last season (Sung-yul Lee). Wright is enjoying his time in Korea (well, at least on the field, as far as I know). Through three starts (16 innings), he has allowed just three runs and has whiffed 16. Even in his last start against the Doosan Bears where he labored through five innings on 115 pitches and walked five batters, he still managed 19.3 DKP. The second-priciest SP on the slate on DK but worth the tag as your foundation guy.
William Cuevas (RHP/KTW) – Cuevas got rocked by the Lotte Giants in his season debut (six runs allowed) but has since dominated, dropping 14.7 DKP against the stout Dinos and then racking up seven whiffs to just one walk despite serving up five runs on way to 19.5 DKP against the Eagles in his last start. Cuevas was an innings-eater in his first year in the KBO last year, averaging 6.1 innings per start, and posted respectable ratios (3.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) despite 4.39 FIP. The LG Twins do have a couple of solid bats on their squad (Roberto Ramos, Eun-seong Chae) but otherwise a rather underwhelming lineup. The Wiz are slight favorites (-135) and, as I mentioned, are missing some key pieces of their offense, but I certainly don’t mind Cuevas tonight as my SP2 in tournaments and hope he can secure a win.
Chan-gyu Lim (RHP/LG) – The other guy on the mound where Cuevas will be pitching is Lim, who has thrown two respectable outings thus far – 26.5 DKP vs. SK (6 IP – 1 ER – 0 BB – 7 K on 94 pitches) and 16.7 DKP vs. Samsung (6 IP – 4 ER – 1 BB – 6 K on 99 pitches). However, please note, these are two of the league’s worst offenses. But given the Wiz are missing some key pieces from their offense, it could be worth investing in Lim as your DK SP2 today.
Won-tae Choi (RHP/KIW) – FanDuel Special – Choi is just too pricey on DK tonight ($9500) where it makes more sense to just invest in Wright in his stead. Choi is a four-year KBO veteran who specializes in run prevention, posting a 3.38 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and allowing a mere five dingers in 157.1 innings last season. Sure, you could pay up to be contrarian in DK tourneys, but given his lack of overwhelming strikeout ability, he simply makes better sense on FD where he’s only $23.
Min-woo Lee (RHP/KIA) – Lee was mostly a reliever last season. He made six starts though, and on the year, his 19.8 percent strikeout rate certainly qualifies as decent (though a 9.2% BB and 5.45 ERA not so much). He is a guy with a walk rate over 9.5 percent for his career and very little experience as a starter before this year, so do keep that in mind. On the plus side, Lee and the Tigers are facing the lowly Wyverns, who average the least runs per game (3.56) and are truly an abysmal squad, winning just two of 16 games thus far. Lee is a GPP only play for me. In large-field tourneys, I’d play both sides of the coin here, utilizing Lee in some GPPs and then stacking some low-percentage Wyverns in case Lee fumbles.
KBO DFS STACKS OF THE NIGHT
Core: Jung-hoo Lee LH ($4500/$14), Byung-ho Park RH ($5100/$12), Dong-wan Park RH ($4200/$8)
Byung-ho Park found his bat last night, crushing his third and fourth bombs of the season. He had previously been struggling and was hitting under the Mendoza line through 15 games. Price is back up here, but we can’t get away with skipping him like we got lucky doing two days ago.
Jung-hoo Lee is another core, must-play guy as the #3 hitter and a lefty bat facing the weak righty. The Giants’ pitcher today (Jun-won Seo) posted weak ratios (5.47 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) in 97 innings last season and has allowed 16 hits, 12 runs and four dongs over his last two starts. JH Lee isn’t a big power guy, but he was among the league leaders in average (.336) in 2019 and is back at it again this year among the league leaders in all key contributing stats (.381 – 4 HR – 19 RBI). He also swiped 13 bags last year.
Dong-won Park has quickly become one of my favorites. He will probably be popular tonight, given his affordable price on FD (just $8) and also on DK ($4200) because of this offense, opposing pitcher and likely lineup slot (hitting fifth).
Value: Keon-chang Seo LH ($3500/$11), Ji-young Lee RH ($3300/$6)
Seo is the leadoff man and lefty who is averaging 10.0 DKP per game this season, though, we’re more likely to slide him in at 2B instead of 1B there. Lee is the pivot off Park for this stack on FD, as their prices are similarly cheap.
Lower-Percentage: Ha-seong Kim RH ($5100/$13)
Kim swiped 33 bags, led the league in runs (113) last season and hits out of the two-hole between Seo and JH Lee. He did suffer a minor ankle injury two days ago and wasn’t in the lineup yesterday. But he did make a pinch-hit appearance and should be good-to-go tonight. Because he’s $5100 on DK, he may get overlooked for other members in this stack but should not be excluded.
Jose Miguel Fernandez LH ($6000/$18) – Red smoking hot hitting .476 on the season and back-to-back three-hit games this series. Opposing pitcher David Buchanan got torched by LG for 10 runs and 3 HR last game. Given Buchanan’s outing and the Bears’ insane streak offense, it would only make sense this game has a massive 11.5 total with the Bears projected to score 6.3 runs.
Jae-hwan Kim LH ($5600/$17) – The other big bopper with Oh out of the lineup, but he and Fernandez will cost you a lot of coin and may not be necessary in cash games. That’s mainly because of these two guys…
Joo-hwan Choi LH ($2300/$11) & Jae-won Oh LH ($2100/$7) – Another two veteran lefty bats in the heart of the lineup against Buchanan. Choi has been hitting third lately (between JMF and JH Kim) with Jae-Il Oh out of the lineup. Choi played only half of last season because of an injury, but the previous two seasons, posted a batting average around .315 and smacked 26 homers with 108 RBI in 2018. “The other Oh” is 35 now but might hit fifth again tonight, is hitting .385 this year and has been posting high stolen base numbers and a solid walk rate for 13 seasons now. These are your two affordable pieces if you prefer Doosan over Kiwoom as your primary stack tonight (though you can certainly mix and match the two teams – especially in cash).
Here’s another stack to consider and the one that will likely be third-most popular. The main bat to invest in here, if Eui-ji Yang sits tonight, is Sung-bum Na. A lefty bat who hasn’t been red-hot this season but is one of the best all-around hitters in the league. Na hit .366 in a half-season mired with injuries last year and the year prior put up a sparkling line of .324 – 23 HR – 91 RBI – 110 R – 15 SB. The other pieces to use here are Suk-min Park, Min-woo Park and if you’re feeling froggy, an expensive and volatile Aaron Altherr. Though, the guy I’d highly consider as a cheaper pivot off Kiwoom’s Dong-won Park is the backup catcher Jin-sung Kang ($2900/$10), who would definitely suit up if Yang is out and has been scorching (13 RBI and hitting .485 in 40 PA).
Sneaky GPP Stack
SK Wyverns – I wouldn’t expect many to go this route, but it’s one to consider for large-field tournaments, as Tigers’ SP Min-woo Lee is a very beatable pitcher (5.43 ERA last year; career 10.9% BB). You’ve got to go off the beaten path to win those big tourneys once in a while, and perhaps this is a road to consider. The key piece to build this stack around is Dong-min Han ($4400/$11), and then you’ve got Jamie Romak, who is priced nicely on FD ($12) but will certainly be under 10% owned on DK where their algorithm has very non-seductively priced him at $6300. I wouldn’t use Romak in DK cash games, but most certainly on one of my three GPP lineups as part of that sneaky SK Wyverns stack. Last but not least here is Jeong Choi, who is expensive himself ($5400/$14) and will also be very low percentage. He is struggling mightily at the plate, hitting just .140, but tied Romak for the team lead in homers last season (29) while also leading the team in RBI and the entire league in HBP (26). Let’s go Sneaky SK!
Good luck tonight and let’s keep it cashin’!
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