Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate for Friday morning!
Welcome to the daily KBO DFS Breakdown!
It’s the start of a brand-new series and we have a couple weeks of 2020 data to work with. A quick overview of tonight’s games:
Hanwa Eagles @ NC Dinos – The league’s best team (the 12-2 Dinos) are -175 favorites facing a tough matchup with one of the league’s best arms (Warwick Saupold – 4 ER allowed in 22 IP) and will have their work cut out for them against this innings-eater. Dinos are a low-percentage GPP stack. The Eagles are the second-worst offense in the KBO and face lefty Kim who threw a 19.1 DKP gem in his last start but that was against the lowly Wyverns (2-12). The Eagles aren’t an enticing stack but one that can be utilized in GPPs.
KIA Tigers @ SK Wyverns – The Tigers are the biggest favorites of the night and they’ll have one of the league’s best pitchers (Hyun-jong Yang) toe the rubber for them, though he is pricey on both sites. Not much interested in stacking Wyverns here, even in big tournaments. The Tigers are a middle-of-the-pack squad but in a great matchup against what very much looks like a ‘bullpen’ game. They’ll be a worthy stack tonight and their best hitters will be littered all throughout cash lineups.
Kt Wiz @ LG Twins – The league’s hottest offense (the Wiz) take on a solid pitcher in Casey Kelly so that’s pretty much a wash for me. With Odrisamer Despaigne on the mound for the Twins, these two pitchers could easily last long into this game and avoid a ton of hard contact. Probably the lowest-scoring game of the night and not one I’m fond of for GPPs (prefer to use the pitchers).
Doosan Bears @ Samsung Lions – This game carries the most intrigue because it could be a sneaky one. That’s mostly because the Bears will likely be without two of their best hitters. Jae-Il Oh hit the IL the other day and Jae-Hwan Kim will probably be out again with his foot injury. Lions’ SP Ben Lively left early in his last start with a hand injury but should be good-to-go in this one. With a disheveled Doosan lineup here, this may line up for a sneaky spot for Lively. Unfortunately, the slate is loaded with solid SP options. Not much interest for me in the Lions offense but I’ll note that Bears’ starter Yong-chan Lee is one of the worst pitchers on this slate and perhaps it’s a spot where the Lions’ offense wakes up. This game does have a whopping 11.0-run total after all.
Kiwoom Heroes @ Lotte Giants – The Heroes have Jake Brigham on the mound and he’s been stellar dating back to early 2019, so it’s a tough spot for members of Lotte’s offense. On the flip side, don’t mind pounding Giants’ SP Kyung-eun Noh with some Heroes’ bats today, and quite possibly with a stack.
Here’s the overview:
PITCHERS TO TARGET
Hyun-jong Yang (LH/KIA) – DK/FD Cash
The 32-year-old was outstanding last season (2.29 ERA, 22.3% K, 4.5% BB) and his last start was a sharp one as he lasted six innings (97 pitches) to strike out seven bears in route to 22.7 DKP. It’s really all about matchup here facing a weak and struggling SK Wyverns offense. You can use him on FD as your primary guy and as your SP1 on DK without having to sweat much today.
Odrisamer Despaigne (RH/KTW) – FD lock
He is mispriced on FanDuel (just $21) as he was originally expected to pitch Saturday instead of Friday, so here we are. Don’t look the gift horse in the mouth and just take the savings here. He has scored double-digit DK fantasy points in each of his three starts and has 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. His team is an underdog in this one and Kelly on the other end is an option to consider tonight. Despaigne could work as your SP2 on DK if you pair him with someone other than Yang above.
Casey Kelly (RH/LG) – GPP on either site
Kelly fits in well salary-wise but the one concern tonight is the matchup with a red-hot Wiz squad. He is only a 16-17 percent strikeout guy in the KBO since last season but has done exceptionally well limiting runs (2.55 ERA in 2019). His first two starts have been rough (five runs allowed in eight innings) but looking at his FIP (2.91) and strand rate (53.8%) makes us think he could be a sneaky option today.
Others to Consider:
Jake Brigham (RH/KIW) – Cash or GPP on either site
Like Kelly, Brigham is off to a slow start this season but at some point he should be back to his dominating ways (he boasted an sub-3.00 ERA last season). The Giants have cooled off and are a very uninspiring bunch. A few games ago, they lost one of their best hitters (Hoon Jeong) who will be out a month with an ab injury. A lower-% option tonight, it’s a good spot for Brigham to bounce back and get back on track.
Yong-chan Lee (LH/DOO) – FD punt
Likely not going here tonight with Despaigne just a dollar more but the Bears are large favorites and the Lions have racked up the second-most strikeouts so far. Lee has struggled mightily thus far (14 ER in his two starts -ouch!) but he will be super low-owned because of it. Could be a get-right spot for him against this lowly offense and keep in mind that the team did have higher expectations for him this season.
Yuong-gyun Kim (LH/NCD) and Ben Lively (RH/SAM) are two offbeat options you could use in large-field GPP’s tonight. Kim as a SP2 on DK because of his price ($5500) and because the Dinos are big favorites. Lively because you’d consider going against-the-grain with a sub-10 percent owned guy against a Bears team without key hitters (Oh, Kim).
STACKS OF THE NIGHT
Core: Jung-hoo Lee ($4200/$14) + Dong-won Park ($3900/$8) + Keon-chang Seo ($3200/$11)
Your three main pieces tonight and you could use Byung-ho Park ($4800/$12) but he hasn’t been making contact this past week and has driven his average down below .200. Lee is the key piece here, hitting third most likely and putting up 3-14-.393 so far on the young season. Park has three homers of his own, hitting .326 and is only eight bucks on FD. Seo is the top of the lineup guy. Very little power but he can get on base and swipe some bags.
Value: Hye-Sung Kim ($2000/$6) – here is your punt play of the night. With the injury to Ha-seung Kim last night, Hye-Sung Kim could sneak his way into the #2 spot in the lineup as he’s the backup shortstop. This value Kim is min-priced, is a talented 20-year-old and swiped 20 bags last year with 57 runs scored in 348 PA as a rookie.
Core: Preston Tucker ($6200/$16) + Chan-ho Park ($4500/$11) + Hyoung-woo Choi ($5400/$12)
Tucker is a bad, bad man. He has been on fire this past week and is hitting .429 on the season, leading the KBO in RBI (his 20 is five more than the next best). Tucker is expensive but the guy worth building rosters around today, particularly in cash games – just continue to ride the wave while you can. Park is the leadoff man. Reasonably priced and a big base-stealer (39 SB in 2019). Choi is the cleanup man who can hit for power and has solid skills overall. He posted a 15.3% walk rate last year and a sexy slash of .300/.413/.485.
Value: Ji-wan Na ($3500/$7), Sun-bin Kim ($4200/$9)
Na is off to a nice start to the season, averaging 9 DKP so far with 3 HR, 11 RBI and a .319 average. Kim is the #2 hitter and should be in a nice position to score some runs hitting second ahead of Tucker. Na has 10 free passes through 66 plate appearances and is hitting a cool .321.
This stack isn’t overwhelming power-wise outside of Tucker as the group doesn’t collectively mash many homers but they could run amok on the Wyverns. It certainly appears that the Wyverns are running a bullpen game today with reliever Joo-han Kim coming in for a couple innings to start. We might see double-digit runs scored by Kia but putting together the right guys will be key.
ONE-OFF VALUES TO CONSIDER
DK: Roberto Ramos (LH/LG) – He’s still underpriced there at just $3300 (compared to $16 on FD) and it’s tough not to consider him given how hot he’s been. Ramos hit the utmost towering shot two nights ago and is hitting over .400 on the young season. Despaigne doesn’t exactly specialize in serving up dingers but at this price, it’s hard not to give him strong consideration (and lock him in cash games).
DK/FD: Byung-hee Kim (RH/KTW) – A new name on our radars, Kim made his season debut yesterday after spending the first part of the season on IL and launched a bomb. With 3B Jae-gyun Hwang day-to-day with a finger injury, Kim could find himself in the lineup again, and possibly with a better slot than the nine-hole. He’s only $5 on FD and just $2200 on DK.
Eui-ji Yang (RH/NCD) – Not many are going to play Dinos against Saupold today but Yang is in play for me every single day. He led the KBO in hitting last year (.354 average) and finally hit his first bomb of the season on Tuesday. Just a one-off who is likely to give you double-digit fantasy points on any given night.
Jose Miguel Fernandez (LH/DOO) – Doosan will probably be the third most popular stack with this high total but if you don’t stack them, you still need to consider Fernandez. You can load up with him, Tucker and still get expensive pitching in cash lineups because of the values listed above.