Vlad Sedler walks us through the Korea Baseball Organization slate!
KBO DFS – Friday, May 15, 2020 – 5:30 AM EST
NOTE: Two games to keep an eye on with around 35-45% chance of rain and possible delay and/or postponement:
Lotte Giants @ Hanwa Eagles
Doosan Bears @ KIA Tigers
If BOTH games happen to get postponed, consider KT Wiz’s So as your SP and stacking Kiwoom Heroes with NC Dinos.
Welcome to the daily KBO DFS Breakdown! We are well into the second week of the KBO season and starting to get familiar with the teams and players. Friday’s slate starts at 5:30am ET (2:30am PT), and we do have to be around our computers and phones close to lock because there is a bit of rain in the forecast that might put a damper on the slate. Just a moderate risk, but one to monitor nonetheless.
Tonight’s slate kicks off a brand new set of series’ with some lopsided matchups, including the 6-1 Lotte Giants visiting the 2-6 Hanwha Eagles (Giants are -210 faves) and the red-hot NC Dinos (6-1) taking a trip to play the 1-6 SK Wyverns (the league’s lowest-scoring team).
Here is a quick look at Vegas odds, projected pitchers and DK/FD salaries:
PITCHERS TO TARGET
Dan Straily (RH, LOT) – $7000 DK, $25 FD
I’d be shocked (shocked!) if Straily wasn’t the highest-owned pitcher across all sites in any slate so far this season. He is very clearly underpriced (especially on DK) and fresh in our minds is his last turn in the rotation where he logged seven innings and whiffed a whopping 11 Wyverns in route to a 40-point DK outing. Granted, Straily was an abomination of a hurler with the Orioles last season and did not have the best outing in his season opener (2 ER, 3 BB, 1 HR in 5.2 IP) but Straily himself noted how he didn’t feel right after having been delayed in that game by over an hour. Straily should be a lock for all cash games and will be well over 65% owned in tournaments as well as a big favorite and facing a bottom-rung Hanwha Eagles team that ranks second in runs-per-game (3.75) this season. If you want to go against the grain in large-field tournaments and fade Straily, perhaps you’ll be interested in one of the options below. NOTE: Chance of rain so pay attention around luck and be careful here.
Hyeong Jun So (RH, KTW) – $6000 DK, $21 FD
So is the second lowest-priced pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel and will be making his second career KBO start. You may remember him from last week’s debut against the Doosan Bears where the 18-year-old looked good and held his own (5 IP – 5 H – 2 ER – 0 HR – 1 BB – 2 K) against a legit lineup. So did notch the win in that outing and managed 84 pitches in those five innings, allowing just two baserunners in innings three through five after a rough beginning. The Samsung Lions have cooled off after a hot start and will be without one of their best hitters tonight (Tyler Saladino). Between the price and matchup, it might be an opportunity to catch lightning in a GPP bottle and hope that Straily doesn’t duplicate his tremendous performance in that last start of his.
Jae Hak Lee (RH, NCD) – $9700 DK, $27 FD
Note that a guy who might be grabbing a chunk of ownership is Doosan’s starter Hui Kwan Yu with the Bears a big favorite but I’m not too keen on playing an expensive pitcher who posted a shockingly low 9.3 percent strikeout rate last season. Straily is my top play (along with everyone else) and I’ll have some exposure to the 18-year-old So of the KT Wiz. But if I were to pivot in a third direction, then the Dinos’ Lee is my guy. You’re paying full price as he is the most expensive SP on tonight’s slate on both sites but we may be ‘paying up to be contrarian’ here with a guy who has a very good shot at the win. The Wyverns have been pounded to a pulp so far this season (-26 run differential YTD is by far the worst in the KBO) and the Dinos are (wait for it) a dy-no-mite offense! Lee did struggle against the LG Twins in his first outing (six hits, four earned runs allowed) though he did last 5.1 innings and struck out six. Lee managed a mediocre but decent 3.75 ERA last season (3.77 FIP) and could certainly rack up the whiffs in this matchup with the Wyverns tonight.
KBO DFS STACKS
Doosan Bears (@ KIA Tigers)
It may feel like Groundhogs Day, but hey, we’re working with a league that has only 10 teams and the Bears are in position for another big night. The meat of this lineup is truly epic. Their #2 hitter Jose Miguel Fernandez leads the KBO with a .500 average (17-for-34) while their #3 (Jae Il Oh) and #4 (Jae Hwan Kim) hitters rank fourth and fifth in the league in average (.429 and .419, respectively). Kim happens to also lead the KBO in runs (11) and RBI (14) and as you can imagine based on these numbers, his 16.6 DK points-per-game is tops in the league. These three hitters with Straily are about as chalky as one can get tonight, but it works well for cash games. JMF, Kim and Oh are all pricey on FanDuel, but there’s a huge price differential between them on DK (JMF is $6300, Kim: $5300, Oh: $4500). The next most popular member of this stack will be their leadoff man Kun Woo Park ($4300 DK, $13 FD), though he has struggled to barely hit .220 through his first eight games. Park is just off to a cold start though as he is one of the better contact hitters in the league (also was 10th in on-base percentage last season with a .397 mark). You could consider #5 hitter Joo Hwan Choi over Park since he’s a lefty bat and is rather affordable on both sites ($2500 DK, $11 FD).
Lotte Giants (@ Hanwha Eagles)
It is very likely this will be the second-most popular stack of the night because of the matchup with the Eagles of which the Giants come in as the biggest favorite (-210) of the night. They’ll tee off against 19-year-old pitcher Ee Whan Kim who walked 21 batters in 38 relief innings as a rookie last season and walked another four in his season debut on May 9 against the Heroes. The stack here will likely revolve around their #7 hitter Dixon Machado who has been one of the most productive hitters in the league to date (3 HR – 13 RBI – .310 through eight games) though I’d consider passing on him in a stack on DK because of his $5700 price tag. Instead, focus on the more affordable middle of the lineup that includes #2 hitter Jun Woo Jeon ($4500 DK, $14), #3 hitter Ah Seop Son ($3600, $13) and cleanup man Dae Ho Lee ($4600, $13). Jeon is off to a decent start hitting .297 with three homers and has ranked top-10 in league homers the last two seasons (33 in 2018 and 22 last year in the suppressed ball season).
Other Stacks to Consider:
- Byung Ho Park ($5200, $14) – usually hitting cleanup
- Jung Hoo Lee ($4300, $14) – hitting .355; hit .336 last year; usually the #3 hitter
- Ha Seong Kim ($4900, $12) – second in KBO with 33 SB in 2019; hits second
- Eui Ji Yang ($5000, $13) – batting crown title last year; catcher on DK (hits cleanup)
- Aaron Altherr ($6000, $9) – hits second; great value on FD (and as a one-off)
- Sung Bum Na ($3800, $12) – averaged 25 HR / 108 RBI from 2014 – 2018 (hurt last year)
Favorite One-Offs (not in stacks):
- Mel Rojas, SW, KTW ($6200, $16) vs. Tae In Won (SAM)
- Roberto Ramos, LH, LG ($2900, $16) vs. Hyun Hee Han (KIW) – a steal on DK
JH Kim + Oh + Fernandez (DOO), Ramos (LG) on DraftKings, Altherr (NC) on FanDuel
Good luck tonight and let’s keep it cashin’!
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