Jesse brings together everything discussed on the Friday livestream, and Mans’ Saturday chat, in one easy-to-reference sheet!
The Core 4
Brian Hill, Michael Thomas, DJ Moore, Dwelley
Watson, Brian Hill, DJ Moore, Dwelley
Tommy’s Core 3-7
Dwelley, Michael Thomas, DJ Moore, McCaffrey
Mans’ Guarantee of the Week
Love Jackson/Watson, and the BAL/HOU game, overall.
Think Watson could be a great GPP play because everyone will shade toward Jackson in that game.
Not on Brees, personally, but don’t blame anyone for liking him this week. Has a great history v Cover-2 defenses.
I like Brady. Interested in older players coming off bye weeks, think it makes a huge difference, Brady has good history v PHI, etc.
REALLY don’t like Ryan Finley.
Prefer Carr > Josh Allen. Allen has a limited ceiling and Carr has been solid this season and has upside.
Just don’t like Winston, overall, and the turnovers are a huge problem, making his floor WAY too low for me to consider him in cash. Understand the point about using him naked in GPPs, or at least considering him from week-to-week.
Carr is almost certainly the huge chalk, but I love Lamar Jackson. Can’t turn down 30+ pts at <15% ownership.
Probably not on Brees, either, but will get exposure to him through Michael Thomas.
I can see myself using a little bit of Dak and a little bit of Josh Allen.
Like Brady a lot. Can’t run against PHI.
Jackson, Brady, Josh Allen, Watson, Dak are probably the only guys I’m considering. Probably fading Carr because of ownership.
With OJ Howard finally getting more volume, it’s ALMOST time to start considering using Winston naked in the right weeks. Not sure about it this week, but keep an eye on it.
Cook > Elliott on DK, but Elliott > Cook on FD. All because of price.
Agree that is could definitely be a “Jacobs game” instead of a Carr one. Jacobs is expensive on FD, but has a great price on DK. Probably using Elliott > Jacobs on FD, but he’s a core-type play on DK.
Brian Hill is a lock for me in cash. The price is just too good and it allows me my choice of Cook/Elliott/McCaffrey/etc.
Miles Sanders. Like him a lot more as a value play than Ballage. Think it’s a “Miles Sanders Week” for PHI with Howard banged up/possibly OUT.
I don’t target receptions for RBs, I consider overall usage. I feel if you are relying on your RB to get catches in order to make value, you’re asking for trouble.
Fournette/Jacobs are very close on FD. Leaning Fournette because I like the discount.
Dalvin Cook is an absolute monster.
Like Fournette, but afraid they’re starting to reduce his volume.
Jacobs MIGHT be under the radar because everyone is on Carr. He’ll still be 15%+ owned, probably closer to 20%, but feel it should be even higher, so like him a lot.
Don’t think I’m that interested in Hill. He’s very chalky and is far from a sure thing. Can get that production from someone like Mostert (if he plays) at far less ownership. Hill is a lock in cash, of course, just not interested in GPP.
If Mostert is OUT, I can’t see Coleman not making 3/5 of my 5 LUs. He’d be an auto-play. If Mostert is IN, though, I actually like him, and would have Mostert on 2/5 and MAYBE Coleman on 1/5.
Ballage is simply a REALLY, REALLY bad football player.
On the fence about Fournette. He’s the kind of guy who might end up on 4/5 LUs or on 1/5. Afraid I won’t have enough of him, but always hesitant to go heavy on him.
LOVE Thomas. Might be capable of having a 2k yard season, and Payton/NO love setting records. Really think they’re going to try to feed him to get him above that mark. Tough to pay for him on DK, but still strongly considering it.
Really like Evans AND Godwin. It’s tough to make the right call b/w them, so just go with your gut. Think I’m leaning Evans because of the CB matchup with PJ Williams.
DJ Moore is my mid-tier/cheap WR. Just about everything is lined up for him and it’s a great price.
No problem at all with Boyd. John Brown, Tyrell Williams, Ridley, Gage are other mid- to low-tier guys you can get exposure to. Ridley/Gage are great contrarian options that still get you exposure to ATL if you can’t afford Julio Jones.
NE is simply Edelman or nothing. I just don’t fuck with their RBs, other WRs, TEs.
Westbrook is someone who could be under the radar and I like him quite a bit. If you’re building 4+ LUs I think you have to get him into 1. Not a cash play.
Hollywood Brown is my “guy” this week (and all season).
Agree about Crowder, like him, but pretty much only on DK.
Will get my Brees exposure through Michael Thomas. Love him on FD, and will still be interested on DK even though he’s expensive.
Agree completely on Evans/Godwin.
Golladay, Edelman, Diggs, Sanders, Gallup, Marvin Jones, Sutton, Curtis Samuel, DJ Moore are the handful of middle-tier guys who are on people’s radar.
Don’t think a ton of people will be on Boyd. Has pretty safe volume of 8+ targets. Like him.
Like Crowder, too, but more of a DK play.
Agree this is a shitty week for TE, but Dwelley is kind of the “easy” choice.
Hockenson is on my radar if you want a pivot from the Dwelley chalk. Personally, prefer Dwelley, though.
Kind of a mess this week.
I am NOT paying up at TE because I want to afford the top-tier RB and WR.
I will have a bit of Howard and plenty of Dwelley.
Who gives a shit? Just pick one. You can make an argument for just about any of them except CIN.
Probably paying down here because of the expensive RB/WR.
Probably punting here, too, because of the high-priced RB/WR.
CAR is probably who I’d pay up for, but there aren’t any teams who are in such good spots I feel they’re unfadable.
Agree about Carr/Hill/Julio chalk, and it will depend on people choosing Lamar Jackson and/or McCaffrey at the top.
Probably going Michael Thomas > McCaffrey if I have to choose.
Carr, Brian Hill, Julio Jones chalk across the board for this slate.
Mans’ Saturday Night Chat
*Dak is solid but think they run a lot
*Watson 900 less on DK
*No love for Driskel
*Brady is viable yes
*Jackson is the cash game QB….if you have the $. Watson very fine fall back there too. I think Brady is solid, Dak too
*I wouldn’t go Kyle Allen. If you LOVE CMC like we all do….that takes away from Allen. Also, Allen is a turnover machine
*Money no object it is Lamar Jackson
*No on Driskel even in GPPs
*No on Finley too
*Wentz is sneaky and I like it for GPP…..wouldn’t be my first or second choice though
*Brady is good for cash yes
*My main lineup will be Lamar Jackson or DeShaun Watson
*I don’t want a cheap QB……playing with fire there IMO
*Brady is my favorite GPP QB (outside of top 2) but he is also good for cash yes
*Nick Foles…..like the player hate the matchup. Colts play SOOOOOO FUUUUUCCCKKKKIIIIINNNNNNGGGGG SSSSSSSSLLLLLLLLOOOOOOWWWWW
*Watson is totally fine and won’t be owned at all I think
*Jimmy G….I am out on that. Not awful of course but he can’t really get into the Lamar/Watson/Dak range or even the Brady range
*Derek Carr is safe for cash. I wouldn’t go there for GPP though. They don’t throw much in Oakland and if they lead they run ALL THE TIME
*Matt Ryan is real sneaky…..I think he will have a good game. But can he hit the Jackson/Watson/Dak level? Not sure about that
*@Raoderest77 Yeah I think Brees would be on the 4th lineup. I would have 2x Jackson 1x Watson, Brees & Brady
*Big thing for me this week is TRYING to avoid turnovers at QB
*Lamar > Watson if price isn’t a concern
*Brees > Brady> Dak> Winston
*Ted LOVES Zeke…..I like him too but am not as gung ho. 2100 savings from CMC is pretty tempting though I have to say
*Fading CMC is REAL tough. He will get his no doubt. But can he get MULTIPLE TDs?
*Mostert will play yes
*Jacobs > Coleman
*Zeke = Cook. Dealer’s choice
*Concerns on Zeke are about 5%. He will bounce back but needs TD(s) to smash
*Mostert is NOT a lock at all no
*Not bullish on Kenyan Drake in DFS this week no
*Jacobs is incredibly safe as is Fournette. I have Jacobs > Fournette as of now
*@Brobke I like Sanders if Howard sits a lot yes
*Not worried about Brian Hill at all no. He doesn’t need to do much
*PASS on Duke Johnson
*@DFSNewbie Zeke/Fournette pairing is great….but I am definitely using Brian Hill too
*I love Jacobs….FD price is a bit high though
*if/when Fournette scored TDs….watch out
*Damien Williams > Ekeler on MNF
*Jacobs a DK play yes
*CMC and Hill very good yes
*Cook > Jacobs
*Mixon is intriguing but I won’t be playing
*No on Drake
*Ballage is probably a better play this week than last….but I cannot do it
*Dalvin Cook = I had to make a decision. Either have ALL the obvious top plays in there or take a couple out. Cook has a tougher matchup and is splitting carries a bit so he got the axe. A few people have been riding me for having “50 players” in the writeup each week so trying to make an effort to cut out any excess
*its REAL close at the top of the RB pool guys.
*Fournette gets a lot of receptions man
*If Dallas pulls away it will be because of Zeke
*Still like Miles Sanders if Howard is active
*Jacobs > Fournette
*Coleman not the only healthy guy, Mostert will play I bet
*Coleman goes from solid to GOOD if Mostert is out.
*Love Brian Hill
*No on Mostert
*Zeke > jacobs on FD
*I would NOT use Mohamed Sanu
*I wouldn’t pay 4100 on DK for Sanu honestly
*Hollywood won’t be out
*Stills is sneaky yeah…..not in cash but a big play would happen there for sure
*Sanders won’t be in my main cash lineup no. Debating the GPP lineup now
*Michael Thomas aiming to be the first 2000 yard receiver in history
*Thomas on DK…….that is a hard one. Probably going to have to fade him there. Go Evans or Godwin instead
*Mike Evans is facing PJ Williams OUTSIDE this week….lol. That will be an adventure
*I love Hollywood always…..Hollywood > Boyd on FD…other way around on DK
*Hollywood 100% will play
*Im GPP you can stack both TB WRs sure
*Not going there on McLaurin
*Evans > Godwin
*Hollywood > John Brown
*Deebo……not terrible but solid
*Hurns is solid for a cheap option but I cannot do it
*I do like Julio…….but so many big time WR’s that are slightly better. I go like this Thomas>Evans>Godwin>Julio
*Crowder is very solid yes…….I’d say just less upside than say Hollywood or John Brown
*You know Sutton is my boy….I’d be OK with him in cash at these prices yes
*Hollywood > Boyd on FD……….Boyd > Hollywood on DK
*Tre’Quan has great matchup but a lot of downside too
*Brown > Crowder
*DJ Chark is very good for GPP yes. Will be LOW owned
*Ridley > Gage still…….but close
*I would NOT stack Jags WRs this week. 1 or other
*No on McKinzie
*Smokey > Sutton
*Stills can make big plays yes. Will have to this week also
*Hopkins should never be completely ruled out
*Hopkins won’t get shut down…..but it is a TOUGH matchup
*I like Sanders>Gage> Deebo
*DJ Moore > Smokey
*Deebo better if Sanders is out…..but still not a must play for me
*Gage > Hurns
*Edelman in cash absolutely
*Boyd > Chark
*DJ Moore > Sokey
*John Brown = Smokey
*John Brown > Boyd by a tad
*No love for Bourne or really any SF WRs
*Lowest priced WR would be Dede at 5400 probably
*Out on Sanu completely
*Tre’Quan sneaky yes but not a good play IMO
*Evans > Edelman
*FUCK NELSON AGHOLOR
*Prop Bet ANYTHING on DJ Moore OVER
*Moore SHOULD be crazy chalk…..but that never seems to happen when I think something is obvious. All depends on what the optimizers tell people is good
*DJ Moore over 5.5 rec probably better
*Cheapest value WR is Dede
*John Brown > Crowder
*Ridley I do like….
*Michael Thomas is locked in yes
*Ridley > McLaurin
*Dwelley for the price….I know Hock is close on DK so I am fine with that if you feel more comfortable
*I like Dwelley yes
*Doyle > Goeddert
*No on Nick Boyle
*Dwelley > OJ Howard
*I love Ertz honestly. Worried that without Alshon though they totally take him out.
*Dwelley > Hockenson……real close though
*No on Irv Smith
*Olsen > Fells
*Dwelley > Hock
*Paying down for TE is my preference this week yes
*Love Knox but I personally couldn’t pull that trigger
*No on Kyle Rudolph
*Still no on Griffin too. Too random
*Dwelley > Doyle
*Game flow is a concern for Waller yes
*Some love for OJ Howard yes. Cash viable? No. But we love that snap rate last week and if it continues production will be there
*Noah Fant is interesting to be this week. Brandon Allen seems to really like throwing to the TE…but it is really a shot in the dark at this point.
*Yeah GPP for Fant….but honestly only if you are doing like 4+ lineups at least
*Ryan Griffin has 5 games of 0 or 1 catch this season. Any production there against Landon Collins is pretty random
*Ebron…12 targets last week, trying to get him more say Frank Reich, Brissett retiring. I dig it
*Olsen >>> Fells
*The problem with Goeddert is its a TD or nothing. There isn’t a 6-90-2 there unless Ertz is out
*Fading Kyle Rudolph because all Vikings want to do is run the ball. When they throw it is Stefon Diggs then Dalvin Cook. What’s leftover is split now between Rudolph and Irv Smith.
*Olsen > Cook
*@g.bonfey 2 TE…….not great. I would try and use somebody else in that FLEX spot
*Dwelley > Olsen > Ebron
*No on the Atlanta TEs BTW
*Tiny love for Fant but not enough
*Jared Cook IS fine but not a priority
*@MillerTime608 I could live with the Arizona DST if need be. Obviously don’t LOVE it but DST is such a fucking crap shoot that its really not that much worse than many others
*Cowboys DST is in play yes.
*Bears > Cowboys
*Honestly…….I am fine with just about any DST you want to use this week guys. It is a complete shit show there.
*Panthers > Jags > skins
*Eagles….obviously not ideal but so cheap and at home, will get a couple of sacks so I would say its fine
*Cowboys on FD, Saints on DK
*@Doug For me it comes down to ownership, matchup and price. If there is an overwhelming good DST, I just ride with it. But this week it is a complete shit show IMO. I don’t want a DST to cost me CMC, Michael Thomas or Lamar Jackson
*Please understand that Core 4 is for LINEUP BUILDING. Not designed to score 100+ Fps
*I would say this is a regular type of week. Sounds stupid I know but like everything in the writeup…there are a few traps out there though so wouldn’t mortgage check everything
*You “can” play a DST against a player….ideally never a QB though and usually only with a VALUE DST. I wouldn’t pay 9K for a player then use a DST against him
*I don’t think Howard plays. Mostert and Sanders will likely give it a go
*@edstaze Yeah having a core of players is very smart. That is why I give out my core 4 each week. The core will shape the rest of your lineup
*50/50’s give you slightly less $ but is a true 50% of the field get paid. I would sacrifice a $1 for a 2% better chance to win
*Optimizer is useful fro cash yes. But my opinion is the optimizer is just going to tell you roughly what everybody else is likely to do. Its all projection based and there’s only so much risk you can do in projections. I like to look at those optimal and then adjust accordingly
*Cowboys = inconsistent play calling
*No bias…..tell me the Patriots skill player besides Brady and Edelman that is consistently effective? James White over 10 Fps 4/8 this season. NOT consistent
*NOBODY is immune from regression
*Jackson + Hollywood is fine for cash yes
*No DJ Moore with CMC in cash…..if you REALLY want to use CMC that is TOTALLY FINE. Just pivot form Moore to John Brown and you are good
*I think fading Thomas is more dangerous than fading CMC honestly
*@John.decapua Its in order of “rating” in my personal model. I have a totally useless (to you guys) scale that gives each player a 1-100 rating and 95% of the time my cash game players are in that order. I will occasionally skip a guy or move somebody up but denote that in the paragraph
*I can’t tell you to fade either CMC or Thomas….those are choices that are inside of your souls
*Thomas > CMC IMO
*Passing on the 49ers passing game this week
*Lamar naked is the way to play him. Pairing with Andrews or Brown is fine too but not to me that is not what I would do. Prefer him by himself or to take a small piece of BAL but not both
*Brian Hill > Sanders
*I wouldn’t AVOID Hollywood if using Lamar but just prefer to diversify if possible
*H2H = Cash
*Hollywood > Miles Sanders….yes
*@Othman66 Emmanuel Sanders is playing and we are still on Dwelley
*Brian Hill with Panthers DST is “fine.”
*800 on the table on DK feels like too much. 500 or less MAX
*500 on table is OK but I’d be suspicious what that lineup looks like
*I always only do 1 cash lineup. I will enter it in about 30-80 contests depending on how I feel that week
*DJ Moore > Coleman
*everybody saw me get the laptop and are like “its that time again, huh?”
*I am honestly drinking Natty Lite Seltzer that my Bro in law wanted me to try….its pure piss but I appreciate the gesture
*All of you are my best friends. Well Ted is probably my #1 but ya’ll #2
*I love Tommy….but he is hard to deal with as a business partner. Definitely one of my best friends though yeah
*I have so many stories from our 3 years here….one day I will write the book
*I love Tommy more than he loves himself (hard to believe I know but true) which is what makes dealing with him so difficult
*Living The Fantasy!! The movie about us….that was fun. You get to meet my whole family in that film
*SXM wants me to talk LESS DFS……I fought that battle back in October. Told them I’d let somebody else do the show if we weren’t doing DFS
*SXM has no idea what you guys want. I tell them I am in the trenches with our people every fucking day. I KNOW what you guys like and don’t…
*I will be doing an uncensored show VERY soon. #StayTuned
*Wife is doing the dishes and just said “are you STILL in the chat?”
*No on craft beer
*Cool Whip > Whip Cream
*PLEASE BE NICE TO ME SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN HERE. I REALLY GET PISSED WHEN ITS SO FUCKING NEGATIVE EVERY DAMN SUNDAY