One of our most loyal (and successful!) subs, Jedi_Pred, takes a walk through the DraftKings and FanDuel lobbies and identifies the NFL DFS GPPs that give you the best chance at a big score!
This article will attempt to bridge the gap between the conservative “Mans Cash Doctrine” and the “all-in” Mass-Multi-Entry (MME) approach to NFL DFS contest selection. There is a middle ground I call “winnable GPPs”, which are perfect for more risk-tolerant DFS players. Many GPPs pay out 22-25% of the field, and if you search you can find some paying out 2x your entry fee if you simply put yourself on the fringe.
By all means, play your cash games and “take your shots downfield” in 150-max GPPs when it fits your situation, but here we will focus on the “winnable GPPs” that pay 22%-25% of the field and allow us to avoid the robotic MME sharks. That said, always take a shot downfield…
Why we hate the DK Milly Maker
The winning score in the Mili last week was an insane 331.86. The winner had 55 lineups entered. Congratulations are in order to thechek182. But the most impressive showing in last week’s Mili was the performance by kai1771 who took 7th place. His score was a whopping 319.24. He did this with a single bullet. His total take was 15K. Here is why we hate the Mili…If he had entered one of our favorite tournaments, the Three Point Stance, he would have smoked the field’s top total of 308.74 and took home a cool $25K. If he had entered that same lineup into the $300K Spy SE, he would have taken home the top prize of 50K…and he only had to beat 3334 entries. I’m not sure the guy even knows this…He’s probably still ignorant to the top heavy lottery type tourneys pushed by the big two fantasy sites. We are a bit smarter than that here at Elite Fantasy. Here are the GPP’s we need to be playing this week.
NFL 50K Triple Option $3 – This is the first time we have discussed the Triple Option Tournament, mostly because of the large field. It’s large at 19800 entries. The good news is it’s a 3 entry max. First place takes home $2500, which is only 5% of the total prize. And the top 10 only take home 15%. This is pretty rare in modern day DFS. The payout curve is pretty flat. The best news is it pays out almost 27% of the field. This is as close as you can get to a cash game with potential upside for a lot more than $6. The 50K means you will be in there with some big boys…but as we have discussed many times before, they don’t have their 150 bullets with them. Advantage Elite Mafia.
NFL 5K Mini Gridiron $27 – Don’t you love the name of this contest? As discussed in chat, DK typically runs smaller versions of some of the larger contests every week with much smaller fields. Just search for mini and you will see their offerings for that particular week. I don’t see a larger Gridiron this week yet, but this Mini will suit our needs. It’s a very small contest with 215 entrants. Top prize is $500, with 10% going to first. 22.8% will cash with a min cash of 1.85X. This will fill, so if you like playing in a smaller field, get your placeholder lineups in. This is a 6 max entry.
NFL 500K Power Sweep $150 – I’ve been reminded in chat that there are heavies among us. Well if said heavies want to shy away from the $333 Wildcat and those 150 entries, the Power Sweep is probably where they should land. This is a 3 max entry contest, top prize is 100K. Yes 100K, and the field is only 3703. It’s pretty top heavy with 20% going to first, and the rake is under 10%. The top 22.50% will enjoy a min cash of 1.5X. Every now and then we all should take a shot. Here’s looking at you kid…
$25K Sunday NFL Flea Flicker $7 – OK finally we have a nice Flea Flicker on FD. It’s a 5 max entry with a field of 4251. Top prize is $2500, and that’s only 10% of the total payout. The rake, (email FD and complain), is 16%. But the 2X min cash makes up for that a bit. This is a contest you should max out and get exposure to several high implied totals for only $35. This contest pays out 23% of the field. This we like a lot.
$50K Sunday NFL Scramble $10 – We highlighted this contest way back in week one, and we are back here again! This is a Single Entry with a top prize of a cool $5K. The top 23.4% get paid with a min cash of 2.0X. The top 10 only receive 24.4% of the total purse. This is what Single Entry tournaments are all about. The field size is a very cashable 5882. Go get this one with your #1 lineup in week 6.
$45K Sunday NFL Stiff Arm $75 – We have not talked about the Stiff Arm and it’s about time we do. It has a very small field of 681. Top take in this tourney is $7500 with first place taking away 16.67% of the total payout. The rake is just under 12% and the min cash is 2.0X. Combine this with the Scramble and enter your top two lineups. Now go get it.
Week 5 was truly nuts. We had insane totals across the board. If you were not exposed to those 5 or 6 guys, you probably had a rough week. Generally speaking, we shall regress to the mean. Trust me when I tell you the football is not juiced and the RB’s are not wearing illegal springy footwear. Stay with the process, stay with your favorite analysts, and above all, have fun with it!
Good luck this weekend!