One of our most loyal (and successful!) subs, Jedi_Pred, takes a walk through the DraftKings and FanDuel lobbies and identifies the NFL DFS GPPs that give you the best chance at a big score!
This article will attempt to bridge the gap between the conservative “Mans Cash Doctrine” and the “all-in” Mass-Multi-Entry (MME) approach to NFL DFS contest selection. There is a middle ground I call “winnable GPPs”, which are perfect for more risk-tolerant DFS players. Many GPPs pay out 22-25% of the field, and if you search you can find some paying out 2x your entry fee if you simply put yourself on the fringe.
By all means, play your cash games and “take your shots downfield” in 150-max GPPs when it fits your situation, but here we will focus on the “winnable GPPs” that pay 22%-25% of the field and allow us to avoid the robotic MME sharks. That said, always take a shot downfield…
A Word on the 140-Max $333 DK Wildcat
Question: Is there a difference between a 4671 140-max field and a 4671 SE?
The question is hypothetical because the latter does not exist on DK this week, but we can still speak on the subject. One may think the 140 does not matter because there are still 4670 lineups staring back at you when you enter. But the 140 does matter. The amount of combinations the 140 guy can reach is vast. In a SE you can get a lot of sameness. The MME guys will be able to get much weirder that any single bullet guy unless that guy is off his rocker. And even if he’s legit looney tunes, it’s still just one lineup. So yeah, the 140 or 150 matters each week because of the ground those MME guys can cover.
In week 1, the winner of the Wildcat had 135 lineups and the runner up had 150 lineups. In week two (hold on to your hats), 3 of the top 5 had one entry. The winner actually entered 5 times, and the runner up entered 3 times. So if you are looking at week two and thinking about dropping 50% of your bankroll in the Wildcat, I’d say stand down. The MME guys fell way short in week two, buts that’s an abnormality. They will dial in their lineups and resume crushing the little guy. If you need further deep psychological analysis, please visit the end of TommyG’s excellent NFL Preview article.
NFL 20K Daily Dollar $1 – This is a SE is a no brainer click! You enter for a dollar, and if you can pop into the top 23.76% you double your money. Top prize is only 7.50% of the total prize and the top ten only receive 17.5%. The payout structure keeps Awesemo and company out, which is usually a good thing. Hey, it’s a buck, with a top prize of $1500. We do not like the rake of almost 16%, BUT AGAIN IT’S A DOLLAR! As you allocate your top weird lineup every week, click on this contest and spread that weirdness into this tourney. Seriously there is a buck sitting in your couch. Now let’s put it to work!
NFL 5K Mini Play-Action $3 – Last week we looked at the full blown Play-Action Tourney on DK. It had more guys in it than the population of Malta. The mini version is $3 to enter with a total purse of 5K. This keeps the big boys out because we are not at the $5 dollar entry or 25K total purse level. The mini pays out 22% and min cashes 2X. The top prize is a cool $500. First takes the top 10% of the total, and the top ten take only 32%. It is a 20 multi entry, but you have to hand it to DK for trying to do their best to keep the sharks out of smaller GPPs. The total field is 1981 lineups. Just looking at the experience badges, you are on an even playing field with this tournament. Take your shot with 10 entries and make the competition bow at your feet.
NFL 150K Red Zone $50 – Everyone has been asking about how this Elite Fantasy staple shakes out as a winnable GPP. I am happy to report this SE is among the best tourneys out there. 24% min cash! Rake 12%. And you can take on all the guys you hate to see in first! But hey, they only have one bullet, just like you. I’m thinking you can be their Huckleberry. The early look at the entrants suggest there are a ton of inexperienced players entered in the Red Zone this week. Field size is 3409. The top prizes go like this. 15k-10K-7.5K-5K-3.5K. It’s not top heavy at all. If you hit place 820 you are returned $75 for a 1.5X return, Get the low owned WR that goes off and you are looking at much more.
$250K Sun NFL Huddle $3 – Yes this is a huge tournament. And yes it’s a 50 max entry. That’s the bad news. The good news is it pays out just over 29% of the field at 2X!, The rake is only 10%, first place only gets 8%, and the top ten get just under 17%. And it gets better. FD does not allow any experienced players into this contest. If you think your cash game lineups are so good they may place high in a GPP, double enter them into a tourney like the Huddle. You will have some piece of mind if your players go nuclear.
$30K Sun NFL Touchdown $65 – The beauty of this tournament is the min cash. It’s set at 2.31X. With a field size of only 524 entries, and a rake of just under 12%, this baby fits in our wheelhouse just fine. It is a 5 max entry, so your top five lineups fit nicely in this one. The cutoff for cashing is place120, and you will enjoy a $150 payout on your $65 investment. Just a hair under 23% of the field will cash in this GPP, and top prize is $4k.
Well there you have it. We have week three upon us. We have injuries, we have solid performers, we have pretenders, we have teams already giving up, and we have dominant offenses just waiting to get back on the field again. Now let’s go get it.