This article will attempt to bridge the gap between the conservative Man’s Cash Doctrine, and the “all in” Mass Multi Entry (MME) approach to GPPs. There is a middle ground I call winnable GPPs. They are perfect for the more risk tolerant DFS players. Many GPPs pay out 20-25% of the field, and if you search you can find some that pay out 2X on your entry fee if you place in the outer fringe.
By all means play your cash games and take your shots downfield on a large field GPPs when it fits your situation. But here we will focus on the winnable GPPs that pay 22%-25% of the field and avoid the robotic mass entry sharks.
So we are heading into week three. We finally have some data in our pockets to analyze with two games under our belts. In chat this week there was some buzz about matchups and how to exploit them on DK. I am old school and table capture from ESPN and pick my running backs based on price, ownership, and the opposing defenses ability to stop the run ETC. But I’d like to point out that DK has an OPRK column in their RB pool of players. It stands for an opponent rank and tells you how much the opposing defensive has given up to that position in fantasy points. While this is useful, it does not tell the entire story. Many newer players avoid the red ranks (meaning the opposing D is great). But you can drill down further right there on DK to get a clearer picture. Take Conner this week. He’s got a 23rd in the OPRK rank column. If you click on Conner then on matchup you will see Houston has been giving up and average of 198 yards on the ground each week. Yeah, that sounds like a matchup I would like to exploit. Granted Week 2 was against Baltimore, but you get the idea. I guess my point is DK provides a tool, and it’s a click away. Why not use it. OK, onto this week’s contests!
NFL Week 3- DK
NFL 50K Quarter Jukebox $0.25 – A 25 cent contest? Really Jedi? Well yes, let me explain. This contest looks horrible at first glance. Max entry is almost 238K! It’s unwinnable right? Here are the nuts and bolts. Top prize is $2500, Min Cash is 2.0X, 20 Max Entry, and the top 23.5% of finishers will cash. But here is the advantage. If you have been playing a while and are at the Gold level or higher on DK you probably have a ton of 25 cent tickets. If you are unaware of DK Rewards, just go to the tab and click on Daily Rewards. You must claim them each day. So if you are sitting on lots of 25 tickets use them in the Quarter Jukebox. It’s free money.
NFL 40K Front Four $4 – If you play MLB DFS you are familiar with the 4 Seamer. This is the NFL’s version of that contest. It’s a 20 max entry with a field size of 11.8K. Top prize is 4K with a huge 26% of the finishes cashing. Min Cash is set to 1.5X. This is another contest in which to integrate the FC Optimizer if you choose not to hand build.
NFL 300K Three Point Stance $33 – The Three Point Stance is a 5 Max Entry with a field size of 10.6K, Top prize is $30K with Min Cash set to 1.5X. If you are a medium aggressive GPP player and build 1-5 lineups, take a look at the Three Point Stance. I’ll see ya in there.
NFL Week 3- FD
Every week plays and the Monster
$40K Sun NFL Safety $2 – The 40K Safety is a smaller version of the Spike, and should be considered an every week play. Top prize is 4K, Min Cash is 2.0X, and just over 25% of the field will cash. The field is 23809, just like the Spike.
$100K Sun NFL Spike $5 – The 100K Spike is a large field contest with 23,809 lineups. It’s a SE, Min Cash is 2.0X, and the top prize is $10K. A whopping 25.3% of the finishes will cash! The idea behind playing the Safety and Spike is to enter them every week. For $7 you can play your top two GPP lineups for a shot at a big payday. Just eat one less Big Mac Meal a week and get in the game.
$500K Sun NFL Monster $555 – Welcome to Ricky’s world! Yep, the Monster, one of the tournaments played by our favorite high stake analysts. I thought it would be fun to break it down and see what these great players are up against. For starters, it’s a top heavy contest. First place gets 20% of the total prizes. The top 10 receive about 40%. But, there are only 1000 lineups, so that’s typical in this space. The Monster’s Min Cash is 1.8X, and it pays 23.60% of the field. So, if you finish in 236th place you turn your $555 into $1000. One of the major draws of the Monster is the low rake. The house only takes 10%. It’s also a 30 max, so you can take multiple shots downfield but it’s not the crazy robotic 150. If your bankroll is large and you want to join the big boys, this is for you.
Jedi Rules – Each week I’ll add a rule that although you can certainly break, you will want to pay attention to. For example if you are stuck on two players, apply the rule.
Week one – We learned that you may not want to start an opposing running back against the Pittsburg defensive line. Barkley 15 carries for 6 yards.
Week two – We learned that Leonard Fournette is the guy in Tampa Bay. After a long search, Bruce Arians has finally found his guy. Play Fournette before his salary explodes. Also a shout out to Mans for the outstanding call on Fournette in week 2!
Good luck in week 3… Peace, and as always be safe out there.