This article will attempt to bridge the gap between the conservative Man’s Cash Doctrine, and the “all-in” Mass Multi Entry (MME) approach to GPPs. There is a middle ground I call winnable GPPs. They are perfect for the more risk-tolerant DFS players. Many GPPs pay out 20-25% of the field, and if you search you can find some that pay out 2X on your entry fee if you place in the outer fringe.
By all means, play your cash games and take your shots downfield on a large field GPPs when it fits your situation. But here, we will focus on the winnable GPPs that pay 22%-25% of the field and avoid the robotic mass entry sharks.
Thoughts on the Upcoming Slates
FanDuel has given us an early Christmas present! They have a three-game slate Thursday-Saturday! We have several ways to go on three-game slates. Every approach is on the table for three gamers. Stars and scrubs, balanced, and full-on game stacks are all avenues to pad the bankroll. All three games have totals over 50, although the Bills/Broncos are on the cusp as of this writing. Grab some Thu-Sat love this week on FD.
In terms of Sunday, both sites are running an early and a late slate. Keep in mind there are only three games on the late slate, but there are hammers that will crush your totals. I believe I’m just playing the main slates and including pieces of the late games.
Week 15 GPP Lineup Exercise
Vegas – Correlation – Opportunity – Studs – Ownership
With the news that Drew Brees will take part in Sundays hotly anticipated match up with the Kansas City Chiefs, we must now pivot off Taysom Hill. Pivoting is all part of the lineup building process, so here we go.
We know we want parts of that game, so I ended up here.
We start with the newly rejuvenated Mitchell Trubisky paired with ARob. Jeff called Trubisky perfectly last week. The young signal caller is basically playing for his football life. Time is running out for him to impress the world heading into free agency. Minnesota has been stingy to the quarterback position, but a motivated Trubisky for about 5% ownership is worth a shot at only 5.5K on DK. The opportunity is there for success. The bring back is Irv Smith. TE is always a headache when you don’t have Kelce in there, so we have to look at ownership and opportunity. Smith should be under 1% owned and with Rudolph already ruled out; he should see plenty of work against a Bears D that has been really bad against the TE position. Back in week ten, Rudolph played in 78% of snaps against the Bears going 4 for 63. If Smith can find paydirt like he has three times in the last three weeks, we can call this move a success.
Drake is Drake and with Edmonds 21% of carries nullified this Sunday, Drake should be a busy fellow. See rule fourteen
This brings us to Leonard Fournette. Ronald Jones not only has a broken finger and surgery, but he was placed on the Covid-19 list on the 16th. This pretty much takes his average 48% snap percentage off the table. Leftwich spoke positively about Fournette this week. Just keep in mind Shady and Vaughn are lurking in the shadows. Still, Fournette should have the opportunity to get 15 carries and some GL looks.
Next up we have WR’s from opposing teams with a high Vegas total. Since we are not touching Brees or Hill, we need to insert a player that would benefit no matter who is throwing to him. With Michael Thomas ruled out we are heading to Tre’Quan Smith. We bring back the pair with Tyreek Hill, who if you haven’t been keeping up, has 14 TDs on the year and could very well lead all WRs in receiving yards in 2020.
To wrap up the exercise we have an unorthodox dual one off situation using pieces of the Seattle/Washington game. The first one off is DK Metcalf. DK is leading the planet in WR yards and is a beast. Metcalf falls into the stud category, and anytime you can roster him, you do it. The Potatoes D should have four or five sacks this week in a low total game. There you have it. This exercise turned into a lot opportunity plays for week 15. As we get later in the year and guys are banged up, opportunity often times takes precedence in builds. You have $300 left over for tweaks and pivots, which is always nice heading into a busy news weekend. Except for Fournette this is a very low owned build. A really smart fellow posted this in chat earlier this week…
In a perfect GPP world, your lineup will go off, and no one else will have those guys. When you roster popular guys and popular stacks, you are going in the opposite direction of that goal.
NFL Week 15 – DK
NFL $50k Screen Pass $15 – We are back to the screen pass in Week 15. This is a three max entry contest with a top prize of 5K. 1st place receives 10% of the total dollars, with only 27% going to the top 10. The field size is a manageable 3921, with 22.85% of finishes running naked in the snow. Min Cash is 2.0X. Get in, and let’s go first and second!
NFL TIERS $8K Fair Catch $12 – If DK is getting a little stale and you haven’t tried a TIERS format yet, this week may be the one to mix it up a bit. The TIERS version of the Fair Catch has a top prize of $900, with 11.25% going to the top finish. 22.2% of finishers will get to say, “I told you I am great” to your significant other. With the field size a winnable 784, and Min Cash set to 2.0X, what is not to like. If you don’t like making player pools, look at the TIERS format. The pool is set for you. All you have to do is pick players and take it down.
NFL $35K Hot Route $100 – There are two versions of the Hot Route offered on DK. This is the smaller flavor that is an 11 max entry (150 max for the Hot Route Special). First place will take home 5K, with 14.3% going to first. We are a little top-heavy, but the field size is only 388. 23% of finishers will be popping cash into their carbon fiber wallet, and Min Cash is a solid 2.0X. If you look at the entrants, you will see most folks only enter once. If you won large in the past couple of weeks, narrow your contest selection to smaller field contests such as this one.
NFL Week 15 – FD
$3K Thu NFL Spike $5 – Christmas has come early! FD has us covered with the Thu-Sat Slate! What better time to pad the bankroll before the main attraction arrives on Sunday. The Spike is one of our favorites, and this version does not disappoint. The top prize in the Spike is $300, with 10% going to first. A whopping 24.5% of finishers will say, “I told you so” in chat, and Min Cash is 2.0X. This is a single entry contest and is filling fast.
$50K Sun NFL Scramble $10 – We love all versions of the Scramble. This is the “normal” variant with a top prize of 5K. 25.5% of finishers will howl at the moon Sunday night, and Min Cash is set to 2.0X. The field size is 5882, and it’s a single entry contest. See ya in there.
$200K Sun NFL Monster $555 – I thought we would take a look at a bad contest this week, one that is a favorite of many a player. The Monster has a very small field of 400 this week and a top prize of 50K. That’s all the luster we have… First place receives 25% of the total purse, and the top 10 receive a mind-blowing 58.5%. This is a 12 max entry contest with the top 22.50% doing snow angels. Min Cash is 1.8X. There are several contests in the big boy space that grade out better than the Monster this week. The $44K Sun NFL Read Option for example. With a field size of 110, it’s more of a live final experience without the cheap buffet, and it’s a single entry. At $444 per entry, gimme the Read Option all day, every day.
Each week, I’ll add a rule that you can certainly break, but you may want to pay attention to. For example, if you are stuck on two players, apply the rule.
(Some rules have been good, some not so good)
Week one – We learned that you may not want to start an opposing running back against the Pittsburg defensive line. Barkley 15 carries for 6 yards.
Week two – We learned that Leonard Fournette is the guy in Tampa Bay. After a long search, Bruce Arians has finally found his guy. Play Fournette before his salary explodes. Also a shout out to Mans for the outstanding call on Fournette in Week 2!
Week three – Week three’s rule was going to be to ignore week two’s rule. But I think you stick with Fournette. Week three’s rule is sell high on OBJ and ignore him in DFS. He has publically stated he’s probably not going to put up big numbers. Let go of the past and live in the now. Cleveland will destroy you on the ground, not through the air.
Week four – What did we learn in week four? We learned Hunt is a must play in all formats until Chubb returns. He is going to be a three-down back; he has a nose for the end zone and is now the top weapon at Baker’s disposal. Use Hunt in every format until the wheels fall off.
Week five – OK, I’m just going to say it. Matt Ryan sucks without Julio. Whenever Jones has a soft tissue injury in the future, avoid Matt Ryan. Period, done, motion carried.
Week six – What did we learn? We have a new sheriff in town, and because the team he plays on is about as exciting as Jeff Mans in a bathing suit, well we have a cheap former stud week in and week out. I speak of Davonte Freeman. Feel free to flex him in favorable matchups for the foreseeable future.
Week seven – This week, I learned I destroy running backs by putting them in this article. Freeman tweaked his ankle last week. Geez, but the good news is Fournette is back and looking like the clear #1 in TB. As I alluded to earlier, we are now seeing Frank Gore give way to Perine in New York. Although they both got eleven carries in Week 7, Perine got the call for the only score for the Jets, a five-yard scamper in the second quarter. At 4300 on DK, he’s a large field GPP play each week moving forward.
Week eight – What did we learn in Week 8? Short and sweet friends. Dalvin Cook is a beefcake stud. If he’s healthy and going to take the field on any given week, play him in all formats with confidence.
Week nine – Dalvin Cook is a beefcake stud…Wait we did that last week. OK, this past week we learned the Bears can stop the run. They held Derrick Henry to 68 yards and no TD’s. This week, they get Dalvin Cook. It’s the Monday night game. Let’s watch and decide if the Bears have gotten their run D figured out. I think they have, and if so, avoid RBs that typically do not catch the football against them.
Week ten – In Week 10, we learned Baker Mayfield is not great. OK, maybe we knew that a few weeks ago…He cannot throw a deep ball and is falling victim to a superior running game. How do we benefit? Use some Chubb and Hunt with the low aDOT guys Hooper and Landry. Trust Cleveland position players in the weeks to come.
Week eleven – Sadly, we lost Joe Burrow to injury in Week 11 and we also got the news that Joe Mixon’s foot is worse than first thought on Saturday. Without both players and a washed AJ Green still getting looks, it’s pretty obvious we attack Cincinnati with opposing defenses in the weeks ahead. You may also want to buy low on Burrow rookies as well, just sayin…
Week twelve – This is a more forward-looking stance than backward in relation to Week 12. The Lions didn’t do well at home against the Texans in Week 12. This week, we have every tout on the planet hoping Swift comes back so he can run all over the Bears. I think the Bears are back, the Bears are Back (is that a song?) Look what they did against Henry and Cook in recent weeks. FADE SWIFT IF HE IS BACK. Chest bulging.
Week thirteen – I beg you, down the stretch, please stick with young or fresh legs at RB in your GPP builds. I’ll use Gio Bernard here as our poster child. You can look elsewhere for stats (or lack of them)…The takeaway here is to look at healthy O-lines (Gio just lost his LT for example), and young or fresh legs coming off an absence. Better yet, look at younger guys on losing teams that are getting opportunities.
Week fourteen – Don’t look now, but Kenyan Drake is quietly putting together a damn good season. He is 6th in carries, 6th in rushing yards, and tied for 7th in rushing touchdowns. But yet, he’s 5.5K on DK, 6.6K on FD, and is a 1.35X on SD. Really? Give me Drake or give me death.
Good luck in Week 15…Peace, and as always, stay safe out there.