This article will attempt to bridge the gap between the conservative Man’s Cash Doctrine, and the “all-in” Mass Multi Entry (MME) approach to GPPs. There is a middle ground I call winnable GPPs. They are perfect for the more risk-tolerant DFS players. Many GPPs pay out 20-25% of the field, and if you search you can find some that pay out 2X on your entry fee if you place in the outer fringe.
By all means, play your cash games and take your shots downfield on a large field GPPs when it fits your situation. But here we will focus on the winnable GPPs that pay 22%-25% of the field and avoid the robotic mass entry sharks.
Thoughts on the upcoming slates
At first glance we have a pretty OK slate upon us. The only things that bother me is the high afternoon total with the Chiefs and the Bucs, and the Rams offense that seems poised for a breakout. I think the KC/Bucs 55.5 total may be shattered with the play of the young stud verses the old stud. And the total on the Rams seems a little thin. If you don’t want to be crying in your beer later in the day on Sunday, have some pieces of these games salary permitting. If not, consider playing the DK 9 game early slate.
This week’s lineup exercise…
This is all about the afternoon hammer. We can make assumption number one and assume the Rams and Goff show up and play some good football against San Francisco at home. I would have liked to fit in Cooper but Woods will do just fine. The run back on the Niners is nobody. The SF/Rams game is a 3:05PM CST start.
As of this writing the Chief/Bucs has a slate leading total of 55.5 points. I could not fit in Hill, but was able to fit Kelce with a run back of Godwin. Which way you go is your decision, have some pieces of this game. This is a 3:25PMCST start.
Mims/Parker is a leverage correlation play in a lower Vegas total. It’s only a matter of time before Mims grabs that bomb and we need that low owned cheap guy each week in GPPs. Parker is the number one option in Miami and has a dream matchup against a Jets team that cannot stop the pass.
Hill is dependent upon Gurley not suiting up. But you get it. Opportunity is the reason for this pick.
Chubb is a stud, and when he fits you play him. The Jaguars are 27th DVP vs. RBs.
The Steelers D seems like a no brainer against a Baltimore team that is without its main weapon and could very well be in disarray. This is a stud defense.
There you have it. Nothing fancy, just a few assumptions…Make yours and own your clicks.
UPDATE: So lineups are a living entity. When news drop as we move to Sunday, we must adjust. With Darnold’s noodle arm back in play, Mims drops out of this build. He’s been replaced with Beasley. With John Brown ruled out, Beasley should get more work. We drop Parker out of the build due to the QB uncertainty. We drop Pitts D because they are off the slate, and insert the Giants D and pair them with Gallman.
NFL Week 12 – DK
NFL $20k Daily Dollar $1 – Yeah I can see some of us old guys sitting in a common area a few years from now still entering tournaments. We won’t care if Nurse Ratchet is taking care of us, we’ll always find a way to pop a dollar into DFS each week. The Daily Dollar is a large field contest with 23.7K entries. 1st place receives 1K, which is only 5% of the total prizes. Min Cash is only set to 1.5X, but the Daily Dollar pays out a whopping 27% of finishes. If you are just starting out in GPPs and want to explore large field single entries, try this one.
NFL $5K Mini Hail Mary $12 – This is a 14 max entry tourney but not a lot of guys max this one out. I do see Chipotle in there 14 times, but really? He risks $168, so he has to pop a 4th place or higher to make money. The top prize in the Mini Hail Mary is $500 which is 10% of the total purse. Min Cash is 2.0X, with 23.3% of finishers lining their pockets with some greenbacks. The best part about this contest is the field size only 490! I’ll see ya in there.
NFL $50K Goal Line $75 – The top prize in the Goal Line is a cool 5K with 10% going to first. Min Cash is set to 1.67X and the top 24.1% of finishes will do naked backflips. The field size is a very winnable 757. Hmm, I wonder if Rez in entering this one? This is the sweet spot for field size, payout and the 3 entry max space. I joke about Rez, he will have multiple lineups in the Wildcat.
NFL Week 12 – FD
$1K NFL Beginner Small Snap $2 – This is a 5 entry max $2 dollar tournament designed for newer GPP players. 1st place is $100 with 10% going to the top lineup. Min Cash is set to 2X and almost 26% of finishers will be able to ask their significant others for a bankroll top up due to the hot streak. The field size is only 578. Go get some.
$65K Sun NFL Onside Kick $15 – This is a better version of the DK Screen Pass. They are both $15 to enter, but the major difference is the Onside Kicks payout structure is not as top heavy and is more spread out. The top prize in the Kick is 4K with 10% going to first and 24.4% going to the top ten. In comparison, the Screen Pass pays 40% to the top 10. This is a huge difference. The Kick’s Min Cash is set to 2.0X and 25% of finishes will dig their fingers in the pot at the end of the rainbow. This is a three max entry and the field size is 3137.
$5K Sun NFL Small Hot Route $50 – Anytime you see the word “small” attached to a FD contest it’s a mini version of a larger field flagship tourney. In this version of the Hot Route the top prize is 1K with 20% going to 1st. 20.5% of finishes will pad their bankroll with Min Cash set at a gargantuan 2.5X. The rake is a low 10.7% and the field size is only 112. If you are tired of large field contests, take a look at the Hot Route. It’s a single entry, and your opponents are NOT better than you without attacking with their 150 entries.
Each week I’ll add a rule that you can certainly break, but you may want to pay attention to. For example if you are stuck on two players, apply the rule.
Week one – We learned that you may not want to start an opposing running back against the Pittsburg defensive line. Barkley 15 carries for 6 yards.
Week two – We learned that Leonard Fournette is the guy in Tampa Bay. After a long search, Bruce Arians has finally found his guy. Play Fournette before his salary explodes. Also a shout out to Mans for the outstanding call on Fournette in week 2!
Week three – Week three’s rule was going to be to ignore week two’s rule. But I think you stick with Fournette. Week three’s rule is sell high on OBJ and ignore him in DFS. He has publically stated he’s probably not going to put up big numbers. Let go of the past and live in the now. Cleveland will destroy you on the ground not through the air.
Week four – What did we learn in week four? We learned Hunt is a must play in all formats until Chubb returns. He is going to be a three down back; he has a nose for the end zone, and is now the top weapon at Baker’s disposal. Use Hunt is every format until the wheels fall off.
Week five – OK I’m just going to say it. Matt Ryan sucks without Julio. Whenever Jones has a soft tissue injury in the future, avoid Matt Ryan. Period, done, motion carried.
Week six – What did we learn? We have a new sheriff in town, and because the team he plays on is about as exciting as Jeff Mans in a bathing suit, well we have a cheap former stud week in and week out. I speak of Davonte Freeman. Feel free to flex him in favorable matchups for the foreseeable future.
Week seven – This week I learned I destroy running backs by putting them in this article. Freeman tweaked his ankle last week. Geez, but the good news is Fournette is back and looking like the clear #1 in TB. As I alluded to earlier, we are now seeing Frank Gore give way to Perine in New York. Although they both got eleven carries in week 7, Perine got the call for the only score for the Jets, a five yard scamper in the second quarter. At 4300 on DK, he’s a large field GPP play each week moving forward.
Week eight – What did we learn in week 8? Short and sweet friends. Dalvin Cook is a beefcake stud. If he’s healthy and going to take the field on any given week, play him in all formats with confidence.
Week nine – Dalvin Cook is a beefcake stud…Wait we did that last week. OK this past week we learned the Bears can stop the run. They held Derrick Henry to 68 yards and no TD’s. This week they get Dalvin Cook. It’s the Monday night game. Let’s watch and decide if the Bears have gotten their run D figured out. I think they have, and if so, avoid RBs that typically no not catch the football against them.
Week 10 – In week 10 we learned that Baker Mayfield is not great. OK maybe we knew that a few weeks ago…He cannot throw a deep ball and is falling victim to a superior running game. How do we benefit? Use some Chubb and Hunt with the low aDOT guys Hooper and Landry. Trust Cleveland position players in the weeks to come.
Week 11 – Sadly, we lost Joe Burrow to injury in week 11 and we also got the news that Joe Mixon’s foot is worse than first thought on Saturday. Without both players and a washed AJ Green still getting looks, it’s pretty obvious we attack Cincinnati with opposing defenses in the weeks ahead. You may also want to buy low on Burrow rookies as well, just sayin…
Good luck in week 12…Peace, and as always, stay safe out there.