One of our most loyal (and successful!) subs, Jedi_Pred, takes a walk through the DraftKings and FanDuel lobbies and identifies the NFL DFS GPPs that give you the best chance at a big score!
If you are crazy enough to be playing NFL DFS this weekend, there are a few contests that pop out as decent enough values. As always, avoid the 150 entry traps. With such a narrow player pool you are going to get crushed by the MME guys. If you absolutely have to, play the $10 Milly on DK. It is setting up as one of the worse tourneys ever with 470.5K entries, 25% going to 1st, low Min Cash of 1.5X, and only paying out the top 21.4%. I’ll have one entry, but I’d prefer to take the $10 over to Monkey Knife Fight where I have a much better chance at making a few bucks…
Thoughts on Raheem Mostert
There really is only one question mark heading into Sunday, and that’s Tevin Coleman’s health. If you remember, he dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship game. He was LP on Wednesday, which is encouraging. But if you have ever dislocated your shoulder you know what he is going through. Just imagine running into the side of your house 15 times, and then falling on it 15 times. Nah, brah. Monitor Coleman closely. If you do not see a FP by his name later in the week, pivot accordingly.
So, it’s looking like Mostert is our guy. “But Jedi, when Coleman was out earlier in the year it was almost a 50/50 split with Breida!” That was then, this is now. San Francisco is aware Mostert was 5th in the league in yards after contact (3.5), 4th in runs of 15 or more yards (14), and according to Player Profiler, 2nd in yards created per carry (1.89). Another thought: 87 of Mostert’s 137 carries came in the 3rd and 4th quarters. So he’s not only the home run hitter in this lineup, he is the chosen one when his team needs to eat clock. If one of your game play scenarios has SF getting out to the big lead, you have to have Mostert as your top player, bringing the build back with Mahomes and company.
On a lesser note, some sites are reporting and playing up Kittle’s torn right labrum. This is a non issue. He’s been playing with it for at least 17 months. Many of us wondered why he was playing with the grey sleeve. Now we have our answer. It will not affect game play, although his deltoid may look like a pin cushion after the game.
NFL Showdown $30K Engage Eight $8 – This is a 3 entry max contest that you can toss your 3 game script lineups in and have a decent chance to cash. The field is only 4411 with 1st place taking home a screenshot-worthy 3K. 24.6% of lineups will take home some bacon and Min Cash is 1.5X. If you are into the 3 entry contests, also take a look at the 30K Screen Pass for $15. It’s a little top heavy with 16.7% going to first and 39% going to the top 10, but hey, it’s Super Bowl weekend, loosen up a bit. Top prize is 5K!
NFL Showdown 250K Fair Catch $12 – We have a large Fair Catch this weekend with a field of 24,500 entries. DK kept the tourney as a SE with the top prize hauling in 10% and the top 10 receiving just under 28%, so we are not at all top heavy. Top prize is 25K. 22.4% of finishers will be paid, and the Min Cash is set to 1.5X. This is your shot downfield this weekend. You are playing against a town of people. Just get ahead of the optimizer trains and you may surprise yourself. When the entire planet is jumping on Breida and Coleman to get different, try some DeMarcus Robinson.
70k Sun NFL Spike $5 – This is one of our favorite FanDuel contests. It’s a SE, with a top prize of 7K. 1st receives 10% and the top 10 23.5%. Min Cash is a solid 2.0X and a whopping 24% of lineup owners will add to their bankrolls. The field is 16,666.
70k Sun NFL Sweep $33 – This is another FD SE. We go up to a $33 entry fee and go down in field size. In this contest you are one of 1782 competitors. Top prize is 6K with 12% going to 1st and 32% going to the top 10. 23.3% of entries will win money and the Min Cash is 1.82X.
So it’s Super Bowl weekend. It’s nearly impossible to stay on the sidelines this Sunday. You can bet some very inexperienced players will be all in on KC. You can take advantage of these fish with proper contest selection and working on your game scripts. Speaking of game scripts, don’t forget about the second half contests. Obviously if KC is down 24-7 at the half get some Mostert and Mahomes exposure in a big way. On the flipside if KC is up 24-7 watch for Jimmy G to turn into a quarterback and start slinging it to Kittle and company. It seems basic enough, but ½ of the planet will be plastered by halftime, so take advantage.
On a closing note, you can fade DFS all together and get on Monkey Knife Fight. Elite Fantasy is sponsoring 100% Bonus up to $50. In case you are wondering, MKF is legal in the following states. AK, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, FL, IL, KS, KY, MA, MD, MI, MN, NE, NH, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, VT, WV, WI, and WY. So get over there now and prop yourself up to a profitable weekend!