Welcome to another fun filled season of Major League Baseball here at Elite Fantasy! Some of the best baseball minds live here and provide world class content. Let’s get it this season!
New and experienced players alike understand the inherent variance of MLB DFS. Even Babe Ruth, after promising to hit a home run to a dozen sick kids, playing at Coors and with Homer Baily on the mound can go 0-5. If you follow a few rules for 2021 you may be able to minimize the variance and pad your bankroll. If you promise to massage your own thoughts into rules, I’ll promise to stop using run on sentences. Here are some rules to start your process.
- Cold weather games in April – Simply put, avoid icky weather. I don’t know a baseball player that likes to pitch in 35 degree weather with spitting cold rain. Will the slider work a bit better? Perhaps, but keeping an arm nice and warm in cold weather is not fun. As for hitting, have you ever got whacked on the tapered end of a bat with a fastball in Minnesota? It stings a bit. I’m not saying avoid all Minnesota bats in April. But if you need a tie breaker for a stack, use the Padres in April, just saying. Elite Fantasy has a weather report tab. Use it. Watch for possible game cancellations. There is nothing worse that rebuilding your lineups when a game gets cancelled. Well except when Curry decides he feels bad and doesn’t play. I digress.
- Try to play light until we get some stats. I know it’s tempting to jump right in with your bankroll a blazing, but remember a lot of projections will be based on a messed up 2020 season and the full 2019 season. Early in April many teams are rounding out their starting lineups. Will the Dodgers really use AJ Pollock against RHP and Chris Taylor against LHP? Will they both get lifted often and only get 3 at bats in a contest you need a few points to finish high in a GPP? Keep it safe and go with Lux or another safer guy if you are using a bottom of the lineup guy or guys stacked with the top of a lineup studs. Guys win and lose jobs early. Be aware of the position winners. At bats mean a greater chance of success. Also for Thursday, every stud pitcher will be on the mound. If you play, consider paying up for pitching.
- Speaking of stacking, it works, and it works well in baseball. There are countless articles all over the planet discussing stacking. I will just say the low cost 7-8-9 hitters can correlate nicely with the studs at the top. Consider this chat quote from a brilliant man during last year’s NFL season. It applies to baseball on a whole other level. And you have ten players in baseball!
When you use nine random guys you need nine random events to take place
When you stack you only need two or three events to go as planned
- Taking stacks an extra base further, consider reducing single game variance by looking at high powered offenses that are on home stands. If you stack the league’s most potent lineups over four games, they are bound to go off in a least one. Do not underestimate the value of a guy sleeping in his own bed and eating breakfast in his own kitchen. Based on advanced stating analysis, much of the industry will land on the same players on a given slate. Often times it pays to venture into the laws of probability and understand a Red Sox slump will not last against the Tigers over a four game home stand. Apply your favorite high powered offense as needed.
- Target bad bullpens. Most analysis you will read will be centered on starting pitchers vs. starting lineups. We all know that starters are pitching less innings these days and many times your hitters will be facing four plus innings against a bullpen. The obvious tendency is to just stack against the worse pens in the league. Try taking that technique to another level and attack tired and bad bullpens. Back to back to backs, extra-inning games and injuries all come into play. Look at the ESPN box scores and be aware of the best bullpen pitchers from a particular team that have been overused for a stretch of time. By all means do not just ignore stacking against statistically horrible pens, just know that a good one can get stretched causing the starter to go longer than he should, and not ready for prime time guys to take over the mound.
- The gorilla in the room. By now you have heard of the ball modification Major League Baseball is introducing in 2021. On average the balls are going to fly one to two feet shorter on balls hit over 375 feet. While this may not seem like much, it could be huge. Is it going to affect Marcell Ozuna? Probably not. Ozuna had seventeen “no doubters” in 2020. In other words the outfielders just looked up and watched the balls sail into an empty seat. In contrast look at D.J. LeMahieu who had one such event. Everyone will be using LeMahieu in DFS this year, and hey, he’s a great hitter who has the skill to hit .350 no doubt, but at what cost? Pitchers K’s and batters HR’s win GPPs, and D.J. is not that guy. He had modest power numbers while playing in Coors. And if you expect him to replicate his 2019 output with a less juicy ball good luck with that. His average HR distance in 2020 was 361 feet. There were one hundred and thirty nine players with longer distances in 2020. I get that he’s an opposite field hitter and Yankee Stadium has a short right field, but hopefully you see the point here. Two links for your review. Get familiar with the statistics tab on Savant. It will show you where the beef is.
It’s going to be a great year at Elite Fantasy. There is a true lack of noise here. All of the content providers are committed to providing winning content. The unique combination of talent really shines during MLB. Every base will be covered. Let’s get some!
Good luck this year…Peace, and as always, stay safe out there.